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Opening Odds to Be the 1st Overall Pick in the 2022 NFL Draft

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated May 13, 2021 · 7:01 PM PDT

Spencer Rattler delivers a pass
Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) warms up before the first half of the Cotton Bowl NCAA college football game against Florida in Arlington, Texas, Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
  • Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler is the favorite to be the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft
  • Six of the past seven top selections have been quarterbacks, with Trevor Lawrence being the latest in 2021
  • See below for opening odds analysis 

The 2021 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, but it’s already time to look ahead to next year’s class. Odds have been released for the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and to no one’s surprise it’s a quarterback that tops the list.

2022 1st Overall Pick Opening Odds

Team Odds at PointsBet
Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma) +225
Sam Howell (North Carolina) +350
Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon) +400
Derek Stingley Jr. (LSU) +800
Kedon Slovis (USC) +1000
Malik Willis (Liberty) +1500
JT Daniels (Georgia) +1800
Emory Jones (Florida) +2000
Jayden Daniels (Arizona State) +2000
Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame) +2500
Brock Purdy (Iowa) +2500
Garrett Wilson (Ohio State) +6600
Breece Hall (Iowa State) +10000
Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M) +10000
Jalen Wydermyer (Texas A&M) +10000
John Metchie III (Alabama) +10000
Nick Broeker (Ole Miss) +10000

Odds as of May 13th.

Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler’s NFL Draft odds opened at +225, and he’ll look to become the latest quarterback to go first overall. Trevor Lawrence earned the honor this year, becoming the fourth quarterback in a row to be selected with the number 1 pick. Six of the past seven first overall selections have been QB’s, with Cleveland’s Myles Garrett being the only non-quarterback to be drafted first since 2014.

Is Rattler the Real Deal?

No school has produced more starting NFL quarterbacks lately than Oklahoma. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were drafted first overall in back-to-back years, while Jalen Hurts parlayed his second round selection into a starting gig in Philly following Carson Wentz’s struggles. Spencer Rattler appears to be the next Sooners QB destined for NFL stardom, and possesses arguably the best combination of arm talent and athleticism in the 2022 class.

Rattler, a redshirt freshman last year, will be draft eligible after three seasons in Oklahoma, and finished 2020 with 15 TD and just 3 INT over his final seven games. He has a restocked receiving corps at his disposal, and with Lincoln Riley calling the plays, video game numbers in 2021 are a virtual lock.

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He’s the early Heisman Trophy favorite, and will likely be quarterbacking one of the best programs in the country. The Sooners project to be a top-five team when the preseason rankings are released, and will be among the favorites to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff.

Riley has produced two number 1 picks in the last four years, and Rattler is a good bet to be the third.

How Good is Howell?

Few quarterbacks in the nation have put up better numbers than Sam Howell over the past two seasons. The Heisman hopeful has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 68 touchdown passes, while leading North Carolina to an Orange Bowl trip last season.

The Tar Heels have been incredibly explosive with Howell under center, averaging 7.6 yards per play in 2020, which was third best in the entire FBS. All five of his starting offensive lineman are returning and he has the luxury of playing for legendary coach Mack Brown. The Hall-of-Famer knows a thing or two about getting players ready for the next level, and Howell promises to be one of the most sought after signal callers next year.

He’s slightly undersized at only 6’1, but his stocky frame (225 lbs) makes him look more like Russell Wilson than Drew Brees on the field. Still, his size will be a major talking point leading up to next year’s Draft, and it will likely cost him an opportunity to be selected first.

Thibodeaux Looks to Break QB Trend

If recent history is any indication, if it’s not a QB that’s taken first, it’s pass rusher. The only non-quarterbacks to be selected with the 1st overall pick since 2013 were Garrett as mentioned in 2017, and Jadeveon Clowney in 2014. Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux will look to follow in their footsteps, and plenty of industry experts believe he’s capable of doing so.

Thibodeaux was the highest defensive player recruited in the 2019 class, and the highest recruit ever to sign at Oregon. He made an immediate impact on the Ducks racking up a freshman school record 9 sacks, and followed up that stellar season by earning various All-American honors in 2020.

Oregon is already planning on transitioning Thibodeaux to more of an outside linebacker role for the upcoming season, in the same mold as Von Miller, to fully unleash his freakish athleticism. The 20-year-old is going to be a nightmare for college o-lines to block in 2021, and he will be awfully tough for NFL GM’s to pass on this time next year.

If a team that already boasts a franchise quarterback on their roster earns the top selection than Thibodeaux will definitely be in the number 1 pick discussion. However, all signs point to Houston or potentially Detroit winding up with that pick, and both are likely going to want to draft their future quarterback for the next 10 years.


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