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Over/Under Fantasy Points for Todd Gurley & Drew Brees in Conference Championships

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Apr 27, 2020 · 10:52 PM PDT

Drew Brees Saints QB
Drew Brees averages 24.3 Fantasy points per game at home this season. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • The NFC Championship Game features the Rams vs the Saints
  • Online betting sites have released two Daily Fantasy Sports props for the game
  • Is there more value on the Over or Under in these bets?

The NFC Championship Game is a rematch of the 45-35 shootout between the Rams and Saints in Week 9. The game has a total set at 56 points, and sportsbooks are giving fantasy football players another opportunity to bet on their favorite stars.

Drew Brees was lights out in that Week 9 matchup, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns. But before we break down his Fantasy prop for the NFC championship, let’s take a look at the scoring system:

  • Pass Yds = 1 pt per 25 yds, Pass TD = 4 pts, Pass INT = -2 pts
  • Rush Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rush TD = 6 pts, Fumble = -2 pts
  • Rec Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rec TD = 6 pts, Rec = 1 pt
  • 2-Point Conversion: 2 pts
  • Decimals ≥ 0.5 round up, < 0.5 round down

Drew Brees O/U 20.5 Fantasy points

Over/Under Odds
Over 20.5 -160
Under 20.5 +120

All odds taken Jan 20.

The Saints have an absurd 29.5-point implied team total and after watching Brees carve up the Rams in Week 9, it’s safe to assume that New Orleans will be attacking through the air once again.

Brees is completing 75.9% of his passes at home this season and has a 23-2 touchdown to interception ratio at the Superdome.

Even in a “down” game by his standards last week, he still racked up 301 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles.

He’s eclipsed 21 fantasy points in five of eight home starts this season, and faces a Rams defense that surrendered at least 20 fantasy points to Dak Prescott and Nick Mullens in the last three weeks.

The Pick: Over 20.5 (-160)

Todd Gurley O/U 23.5 Fantasy points

Over/Under Odds
Over 23.5 +140
Under 23.5 -180

Todd Gurley returned to action last week and posted an efficient line of 115 yards on 16 carries, including this 35 yard TD run.

He’s flying under the radar this week due to the amount of work CJ Anderson stole against the Cowboys, but this game shapes up to be a high-scoring affair, with the Rams playing from behind, which better suits Gurley.

He’s a more reliable pass-catcher than Anderson, and while I don’t think he handles 100% of the running back touches, a 70-30 split seems more realistic.

Gurley has the luxury of operating behind the number one run blocking unit in the NFL and the loss of Saints run stuffing tackle Sheldon Rankins greatly improves his outlook.

He’s gone over 23.5 fantasy points in 11 of 15 games this season and no one in the NFL has scored more touchdowns over the last two seasons.

The Pick: Over 23.5 (+140)

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