Over/Under Fantasy Points for Todd Gurley & Drew Brees in Conference Championships
- The NFC Championship Game features the Rams vs the Saints
- Online betting sites have released two Daily Fantasy Sports props for the game
- Is there more value on the Over or Under in these bets?
The NFC Championship Game is a rematch of the 45-35 shootout between the Rams and Saints in Week 9. The game has a total set at 56 points, and sportsbooks are giving fantasy football players another opportunity to bet on their favorite stars.
This @drewbrees to @Cantguardmike TD secured the @Saints‘ 7th straight win. ???@insidetheNFL | #ShotOfTheWeek#GoSaints pic.twitter.com/OdQ6lfGESe
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 5, 2018
Drew Brees was lights out in that Week 9 matchup, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns. But before we break down his Fantasy prop for the NFC championship, let’s take a look at the scoring system:
- Pass Yds = 1 pt per 25 yds, Pass TD = 4 pts, Pass INT = -2 pts
- Rush Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rush TD = 6 pts, Fumble = -2 pts
- Rec Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rec TD = 6 pts, Rec = 1 pt
- 2-Point Conversion: 2 pts
- Decimals ≥ 0.5 round up, < 0.5 round down
Drew Brees O/U 20.5 Fantasy points
| Over/Under | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 20.5 | -160 |
| Under 20.5 | +120 |
All odds taken Jan 20.
The Saints have an absurd 29.5-point implied team total and after watching Brees carve up the Rams in Week 9, it’s safe to assume that New Orleans will be attacking through the air once again.
Brees is completing 75.9% of his passes at home this season and has a 23-2 touchdown to interception ratio at the Superdome.
The bullet pass thrown on this TD by #Saints QB Drew Brees knocked Michael Thomas BACKWARDS. ?#PHIvsNO #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/Icl9LHsWkq
— Snack Time Fantasy (@Snack_TimeFS) January 14, 2019
Even in a “down” game by his standards last week, he still racked up 301 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles.
He’s eclipsed 21 fantasy points in five of eight home starts this season, and faces a Rams defense that surrendered at least 20 fantasy points to Dak Prescott and Nick Mullens in the last three weeks.
The Pick: Over 20.5 (-160)
Todd Gurley O/U 23.5 Fantasy points
| Over/Under | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 23.5 | +140 |
| Under 23.5 | -180 |
Todd Gurley returned to action last week and posted an efficient line of 115 yards on 16 carries, including this 35 yard TD run.
He’s baaaaack ?@TG3II takes it 35 yards for the touchdown‼️ pic.twitter.com/j0kkKA8kn6
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 13, 2019
He’s flying under the radar this week due to the amount of work CJ Anderson stole against the Cowboys, but this game shapes up to be a high-scoring affair, with the Rams playing from behind, which better suits Gurley.
He’s a more reliable pass-catcher than Anderson, and while I don’t think he handles 100% of the running back touches, a 70-30 split seems more realistic.
Apply pressure. @TG3II | #pLAyoffs | #LARams pic.twitter.com/zcJl8KQ4XE
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 12, 2019
Gurley has the luxury of operating behind the number one run blocking unit in the NFL and the loss of Saints run stuffing tackle Sheldon Rankins greatly improves his outlook.
He’s gone over 23.5 fantasy points in 11 of 15 games this season and no one in the NFL has scored more touchdowns over the last two seasons.
The Pick: Over 23.5 (+140)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
