NFL Week 4 Over/Under Picks – Game-Total Predictions for Every Matchup
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Week 4 of the season has arrived and true contenders are rapidly separating from pretenders. The action kicks off October 1 at 8:15 PM ET with the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) visiting the Cleveland Browns (2-1) where the winner will hold the early lead in the AFC North. The marquee Week 4 matchup resides in the AFC West, where the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) travel to face the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) in a battle of undefeateds.
The slate concludes October 5 at 8:15 PM ET with an NFC South rivalry between the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) and New Orleans Saints (1-2).
A few of the game totals have moved a lot since the opening NFL Week 4 odds were posted on Sunday evening. The O/U for Packers vs Buccaneers opened at 46.5 before market pressure drove that number down a massive seven points to 39.5, almost entirely due to an injury to Tampa QB1 Baker Mayfield.
Another major adjustment took place in Dolphins and Vikings, which 3.5 points from 42.0 to 38.5.
The total for the Falcons/Saints rose two points from 46.5 to 48.5.
I have run all 16 games through SBD’s predictive A.I. model, generating the top O/U pick for each game based on current lines. The table below summarize the picks. Under the table, find the computer’s reasoning for each O/U prediction.
Over/Under NFL Picks for Week 4
After a sub-par Week 3, the O/U picks are now just 16–16 overall (-1.482 units on one-unit wagers) this season.
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Steelers vs Browns O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 38.5
After Week 3, the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 O/U) and Cleveland Browns (2-1 SU, 2-1 O/U) both have sluggish offenses averaging under 19.0 points per game (PIT 17.7 PPG, CLE 18.0 PPG). Cleveland’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league producing just 266.0 total yards per game, while their aggressive defense has generated 7.0 sacks and limited opponents to a 39.0% third-down conversion rate. Pittsburgh’s defense has been equally stingy in scoring territory, allowing a touchdown on just 1-of-3 opponent red zone trips (33.3%). Expect a grueling field position battle rather than an air raid offense, safely keeping this total under.
Colts vs Commanders O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 47.5
Following Week 3, both SU and O/U records point to high scoring, headlined by Washington’s perfect over record (3-0 O/U) alongside Indianapolis (2-1 O/U). The Washington Commanders average 25.0 points per game and boast a +2 turnover differential compared to the Colts (-5). Washington’s games have averaged a massive 55.7 total points due to an offense with a 66.7% red zone touchdown rate paired with a defense surrendering 30.7 PPG and a 75.0% red zone touchdown clip. With the Indianapolis Colts yielding 30.3 PPG and 417.3 total yards per game, this matchup offers plenty of defensive vulnerabilities to push the total over.
Note that this game will be played in London, England.
Cardinals vs Giants O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 44.5
After Week 3, SU and O/U records align for the Arizona Cardinals (1-2 O/U) and New York Giants (1-2 O/U), with the Cards generating 21.0 points per game against New York’s 15.3 points per game. The Giants’ offense averages just 271.3 total yards per contest, and their last two matchups have averaged a combined 26.5 total points. Both squads maintain +3 turnover differentials, prioritizing careful game management and mistake-free football over explosive downfield risk-taking. This cautious approach guarantees a methodical contest that stays under the number.
Patriots vs Bills O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 48.5
The Buffalo Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 O/U) showcase elite 75.0% red zone touchdown efficiency (9-for-12) and lead the NFL averaging 33.7 points per game. After Week 3, the New England Patriots‘ SU (1-2) and O/U records (0-3 O/U) reflect a dismal 12.0 points per game, a 16.7% red zone conversion rate (1-for-6), and an NFL-worst 8 giveaways. While Buffalo can score early, New England’s complete lack of offensive rhythm and low third-down conversion rate (32.5%) will leave them unable to contribute the necessary points to push this high total over.
Jets vs Bears O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 42.5
The Chicago Bears (1-2 O/U) feature a high-powered offense posting 29.7 points and 408.0 total yards per game while converting a stellar 47.6% of third downs (20-for-42). After Week 3, the New York Jets (1-2 O/U) counter with an offense capitalizing on 66.7% of their red zone trips (6-for-9) and averaging 21.3 PPG. Chicago’s fast-paced, volume attack will set a brisk tempo from the opening kickoff, forcing New York to stay aggressive and driving the combined score over the total.
Cowboys vs Texans O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 47.5
The Dallas Cowboys (3-0 O/U) enter a flawless 3-0 to the over, operating a high-octane offense averaging 29.3 points per game, a 57.1% third-down conversion clip, and a 75.0% red zone touchdown rate. While the Houston Texans (1-2 O/U) have had offensive growing pains (18.0 PPG), Houston’s defense generates havoc with 11.0 sacks, creating short fields and turnover volatility. Combined with Dallas surrendering 27.3 PPG and allowing a 58.8% conversion rate on third down defensively, both offenses will find ample scoring lanes to eclipse this line.
Rams vs Eagles O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 43.5
The Los Angeles Rams (1-2 O/U) produce 417.7 total yards per game but struggle to turn yardage into points, converting only 50.0% of red zone drives into touchdowns (20.3 PPG). After Week 3, the Eagles (2-1 O/U) average just 18.3 points per game and are plagued by a -5 turnover differential. Despite Los Angeles moving between the 20s, defensive red zone stands and Philadelphia’s run-heavy, clock-draining game script will suppress overall possessions and keep scoring under the number.
Packers vs Buccaneers O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 39.5
The Packers (2-1 O/U) average just 18.7 points per game, severely hampered by a league-worst 27.8% third-down conversion rate (10-for-36). After Week 3, the winless Buccaneers (2-1 O/U) post 20.7 points per game but are crippled by 13.0 sacks allowed and a lackluster 30.0% red zone touchdown rate (3-for-10). With Tampa Bay’s defense limiting opponents to 37.5% in the red zone, expect a gritty matchup dictated by drive-stalling pressures and red zone field goals, staying securely under.
Titans vs Ravens O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 43.5
The Baltimore Ravens (2-1 O/U) post 30.7 points and 398.7 yards per game behind a 66.7% red zone touchdown rate. However, the Tennessee Titans (0-3 SU, 1-2 O/U) manage just 12.3 points and an NFL-low 249.3 yards per contest. After Week 3, SU and O/U records highlight Tennessee’s inability to sustain drives or create chunk plays. Baltimore will control tempo and dominate time of possession against a one-dimensional offense, leaving the Titans unable to contribute enough scoring and resulting in an easy under.
Jaguars vs Bengals O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 51.5
The Jaguars (1-2 O/U) boast an elite 88.9% red zone touchdown efficiency (8-for-9), a +4 turnover differential, and 27.3 points per game. After Week 3, the Bengals (2-1 O/U) counter with an explosive offense posting 26.7 points per game and excelling on third downs (46.3%). Both teams convert third downs at top-tier rates (JAX 52.9%, CIN 46.3%) and generate pressure up front (CIN 10.0 sacks, JAX 8.0 sacks) that creates short fields. This fast-paced, high-execution matchup will provide plenty of offensive firepower to comfortably clear the total.
Dolphins vs Vikings O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 38.5
The Minnesota Vikings (3-0 SU, 1-2 O/U) feature a dominant defense leading the league with 14.0 sacks, holding opponents to 13.7 points per game and an NFL-best 22.7% third-down conversion rate (10-for-44). In contrast, the Miami Dolphins‘ (0-3 SU, 1-2 O/U) offense averages just 12.0 points and converts only 28.6% of red zone drives into touchdowns (2-for-7) while conceding 9.0 sacks. After Week 3, these SU and O/U records point directly to a stifling defensive showcase by Minnesota that keeps Miami off the board and stays under.
Chiefs vs Raiders O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 47.5
After Week 3, the 3-0 SU Chiefs (1-2 O/U) and 3-0 SU Raiders (1-2 O/U) bring electric form into this clash, with both offenses averaging identical 29.3 points per game. Kansas City’s 416.3 total yards per game and elite pass protection (just 4.0 sacks allowed) provide consistent scoring drives, while Las Vegas capitalizes on extra possessions with a league-best +5 turnover differential (9 takeaways). These undefeated AFC West rivals combine for 58.6 PPG and will trade explosive blows to smash the over.
Chargers vs Seahawks O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 42.5
The Seattle Seahawks (1-2 O/U) convert 58.3% of red zone trips for 25.0 points per game while anchoring a lockdown defense allowing an NFL-low 228.7 total yards per game and 16.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers (0-3 O/U) have stayed under in all three games, struggling immensely with 14.7 points per game and 6 costly giveaways. After Week 3, SU and O/U records illustrate an uphill battle against Seattle’s third-down defense (26.8% allowed), as the Chargers’ offensive stagnation keeps the combined score well under the number.
Broncos vs 49ers O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 46.5
The San Francisco 49ers (3-0 SU, 2-1 O/U) have been an offensive juggernaut, leading the league with a 63.0% third-down conversion rate (17-for-27) and a staggering 90.0% red zone touchdown efficiency (9-for-10) to average 32.7 points per game without allowing a single sack. The Denver Broncos (1-2 O/U) are coming off a 30-point showing in Week 3, while their defense allows a 47.8% conversion clip on third down. After Week 3, the 49ers’ SU and O/U records highlight an unstoppable scoring machine that will drive this total over through relentless efficiency.
Lions vs Panthers O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Over 50.5
The Detroit Lions (3-0 O/U) have seen every game go over, with Detroit matchups averaging an astronomical 62.7 total points behind 31.0 points scored and 31.7 points allowed per game. The Panthers (1-2 O/U) keep pace offensively with 29.7 points and 392.7 yards per game. Both defenses have been porous inside the 20, conceding touchdown rates over 84% in the red zone (CAR 85.7%, DET 84.6%). With Detroit’s +3 turnover differential generating extra possessions in a high-tempo environment, expect a shootout that easily clears this high total.
Falcons vs Saints O/U Pick
O/U Pick: Under 48.5
The Saints (2-1 O/U) maintain a 53.2% third-down conversion rate (25-for-47) and 27.0 points per game, but have been hindered by 10.0 sacks allowed and 7 giveaways. The Falcons (1-2 O/U) manage just 17.0 points per game and are plagued by an NFL-worst -6 turnover differential (8 giveaways). After Week 3, the Falcons’ SU and O/U records reflect severe offensive inconsistency against division rivals. While New Orleans will control tempo, sloppy possessions and drive-killing turnovers from both sides will keep scoring in check and under the total. After Week 3, the Falcons’ SU and O/U records reflect immense struggles. The Saints will control the game, but the Falcons’ ineptitude keeps scoring in check.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
