Packers NFC Championship Odds Continue to Surge, While Division Rival Vikings Fade

• The Green Bay Packers odds to win the NFC have shortened from +990 to +910
• The Minnesota Vikings odds have gotten longer, going from +1100 to +1200
• Betting the over on the Packers and Vikings regular season win totals is a better bet than to win the NFC outright

We haven’t even reached training camps yet but a lot of bettors are bullish on the Green Bay Packers. Their regular season win total has been bet over and many of the same bettors like them to with the NFC North and NFC Championship too. Are they a good bet to cash in or are other quality teams like the Vikings or Chicago Bears the better investment?

2020 NFC Championship Odds

*Odds taken 06/18/19. 

Packers Have Positive Offseason

For the most part, the Packers have earned good grades for their offseason moves. Firing head coach Mike McCarthy and bringing in some fresh blood in Matt LaFleur immediately changed the mood. Then they spent the offseason rebuilding their defense both in free agency and the NFL Draft.

The Packers signed linebackers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, safety Adrian Amos and then spent two first-round picks on defense as well (Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage). On offense, the hope is that a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers along with the smart offensive mind of LaFleur can sort things out.

Friction With LaFleur?

One cause for concern that few bettors are noticing is the very slightest of friction between LaFleur and Rodgers. We saw a very brief glimpse of it in some early comments from Rodgers a couple of months ago and now we have a second mini bump in the road.

On Sunday, Rodgers took a little passive-aggressive shot at LaFleur as he hasn’t been enthused with the amount of control he has at the line of scrimmage to change plays. He said, “There’s stuff that not many people in the league can do at the line. That’s not a humblebrag. That’s just a fact.”

It is definitely a concern as a more positive way to frame it could have been saying that it’s a new offense, he’s learning and he eventually expects to get more control. Instead, he made a point of this. It’s not the ideal thing to hear considering the Packers just fired a head coach who couldn’t get along with Rodgers.

Vikings Have Plenty of Question Marks

The Vikings had a much quieter offseason but, for the most part, return the same team intact. Remember, they entered last season with Super Bowl expectations after playing in the 2017 NFC Championship Game.

They added Garrett Bradbury (draft), Dru Samia (draft) and Josh Kline (free agency) to their offensive line. That was the team’s biggest weakness last season. They also added Gary Kubiak as an assistant head coach and he’s been known to get offenses on the right track.

So why the drop in NFC Championship odds from +1100 to +1200? This team just isn’t the sexy team of the moment right now.

What About the Bears?

Similar to the Vikings, the Bears mostly maintained the status quo. They beefed up their offense with the addition of David Montgomery and Riley Ridley in the draft, and they added Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson via free agency. On defense, they lost Amos but signed HaHa Clinton-Dix.

The main question with the Bears is are they as good as they were last season? They went 12-4 but it was a down year in the division and they nearly swept it (5-1). Will they be as good now that each of the other three teams is expected to be improved?

It feels like the Bears breezed through an easy schedule last year and while their defense is still stellar, a regression to the mean should be expected for the team.

What’s the Best Bet?

In terms of betting advice for this division and the NFC, I personally am not bullish on any team from this division winning the conference. However, I do like the Packers to win ten or more games and go over their regular season win total. Rodgers has had at least double-digit wins in seven of the last ten seasons.

At the same time, I also like the over with the Vikings. To me, this is a forgotten team and while Kirk Cousins will probably struggle in the playoffs as he struggles against all teams with a winning record, I like the direction of this team. With Kubiak on board and a rebuilt offensive line, this team will run the ball and play defense. That should lead to double-digit wins.

As for the Bears, I expect them to fall back to the eight or nine-win range, so I’m not bullish on any of their futures.