Packers vs Patriots Expert Picks, Splits & Injuries (Nov 8)
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Packers travel to New England to face the Patriots this afternoon
- New England is riding a 17-game outright win streak as favorites
- See the best Packers vs Patriots expert picks, splits and injuries for the Nov 8 showdown, below
The New England Patriots (5-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U) host the Green Bay Packers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 2-6 O/U) for a crucial cross-conference showdown this afternoon at 4:25 PM ET on FOX. Both squads enter Week 9 riding one-game winning streaks with significant playoff implications on the line.
Major injury absences dominate the storylines heading into kickoff at Gillette Stadium. The Packers are still missing elite edge rusher Micah Parsons, while the Patriots will be without star wideout A.J. Brown.
Below, I’ll break down this matchup from an NFL odds perspective. Keep reading for the best Packers vs Patriots expert picks, plus betting splits and injuries for Nov 8.
Packers vs Patriots Expert Picks
When evaluating the betting angles for this cross-conference clash between fringe Super Bowl 61 odds contenders, the situational trends point heavily toward the home team laying the points.
Spread Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-133 at Kalshi) – Claim SBD’s exclusive KALSHI PROMO CODE before kickoff
The Patriots have established themselves as an absolute juggernaut when oddsmakers give them the edge. They have won their last 17 games outright as a favorite. This dominance extends to covering the number at Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots are a blistering 7-1 ATS (87.5%) as home favorites over their last eight contests.
The Packers have fallen off a cliff in hostile territory against elite units. The Packers are just 1-6-1 ATS (12.5%) in their last eight road games. They are also an abysmal 0-5 ATS in their last five road matchups against top-10 scoring defenses. Furthermore, the Packers have lost four straight games outright as road underdogs, making the Patriots a highly reliable play on the spread.
Over/Under Pick: Under 44.5 (+100 at Novig)
Navigating the game total presents a fascinating clash of recent team philosophies, but leaning toward a lower-scoring affair offers the strongest value.
While the Over has hit in each of the Patriots’ last five outings, the Packers’ recent game scripts have been defensive grinds. The Over has failed to hit in all of the Packers’ last five games..
Additionally, the Under has cashed in four of the Packers’ last five games against opponents with a winning record. Given the Patriots’ stout defensive profile, expect the Packers to struggle finding the end zone. This will effectively drag the combined score below the 44.5-point threshold. Before making any wager today, scan the prediction market apps to find the best value.
GB vs NE Odds
Odds as of November 8, 2026 from BetMGM. Sign up with the BetMGM promo code and score a bonus to use on this game.
Green Bay vs New England Splits
When evaluating the NFL public betting splits, money percentages provide a clearer picture of where the actual financial liability lies.
Despite the Patriots’ strong historical performance at home as favorites, bettors are lining up to take the points with the road underdog. The Packers are currently commanding a massive 73.6% of the spread money and 71.9% of the betting tickets. With the vast majority of the public firmly backing the Packers, the official prediction of Patriots -3 creates a clear position to fade the consensus.
Bettors are also anticipating a higher-scoring affair, driving heavy action toward the Over. The Over has drawn 67.9% of the total money and 70.1% of the tickets. This widespread public expectation directly opposes the Under 44.5 recommendation.
The moneyline is the only major market where the public leans toward the home favorite. The Patriots have attracted 57.3% of the moneyline stake and 63.7% of the outright tickets.
Packers vs Patriots Injuries
The Patriots will have to navigate the absence of star wide receiver A.J. Brown. His absence dramatically shifts the dynamics of the Patriots’ passing attack. NFL MVP odds long shot Drake Maye will likely be forced to lean heavily on slot receiver DeMario Douglas and tight end Hunter Henry. If Henry cannot suit up due to his foot injury, Eli Raridon will be thrust into the TE1 role.
In the backfield, TreVeyon Henderson’s illness clarifies the workload for Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson should see a bell-cow volume share, making his rushing prop of 56.5 yards highly appealing. Defensively, the Patriots could be vulnerable in the secondary if starting cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Kevin Byard III are unable to go.
For the Packers, the defensive injuries are catastrophic. The Packers will be without two of their most impactful front-seven defenders in defensive end Micah Parsons and middle linebacker Zaire Franklin. Without Parsons’ elite edge-rushing presence, Maye will likely enjoy cleaner pockets. Franklin’s absence creates a glaring weakness against the run that Rhamondre Stevenson is primed to exploit.
On offense, the Packers’ already-struggling ground game faces further complications. With backups MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks both questionable, the Packers’ backfield depth is perilously thin. Starter Josh Jacobs will be asked to carry the load, likely forcing the Packers to become even more one-dimensional through the air.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
