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Panthers’ 2019 Win Total Drops From 8 to 7.5; Is There Value?

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 6:58 PM PDT

Cam Newton
The expected win total for Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers is set at 7.5. Should you play the over or the under? Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (flickr) [CC License].
  • Sportsbooks have set the Carolina Panthers’ total wins bar for the the 2019 NFL season at 7.5
  • Carolina was 7-9 last season
  • Under head coach Ron Rivera, they’ve averaged 11 wins in odd-numbered years

When it comes to tabulating the total wins for the Carolina Panthers during the 2019 NFL regular season, there are two schools of thought you can consider. Do you look at it from the point of view of going over or under, or should you take into considering even and odd?

The fact of the matter is that the Panthers were mediocre at best last season, going 7-9 and finishing tied for second in the NFC South. Sportsbooks have set the bar for Panthers’ wins in 2019 at 7.5, so you have to ask yourself, do you think they will be a better team this season?

Carolina Panthers 2019 Regular Season Win Total Odds

Carolina Panthers Projected 2019 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 -135
Under 7.5 +105

*Odds taken 05/01/19

On the other hand, perhaps you’re a bettor who likes to follow trends. And when it comes to the Panthers, they tend to trend upwardly in odd-numbered years. Five of their seven double-digit NFL win totals were recorded in odd-numbered years.

Odds Are With Panthers

It’s a strange trend to be sure, and it’s proven to be a pattern that’s even more prevalent under current head coach Ron Rivera. In even-numbered years, the Panthers regress. It odd-numbered years, they progress.

Carolina was 11-5 in 2017 and earned an NFL Wildcard playoff position. An NFL-best 15-1 record in 2015 ended with the Panthers losing Super Bowl 50 to the Denver Broncos. A 12-4 slate in 2013 won the Panthers the NFC South title.

Under Rivera’s direction, Carolina is 44-20 in odd-numbered years and has played in the postseason three times in four years.

Under Rivera’s direction, Carolina is 44-20 (.687) in odd-numbered years and has played in the postseason three times in four years. In even-numbered years, Carolina is 27-36-1 (.429) with Rivera in charge.

But this odd streak during odd-numbered years is not limited to recent history. Five of the seven winning seasons posted by the club since joining the NFL as an expansion franchise in 1995 were achieved during odd-numbered years. Five of Carolina’s eight playoff appearances also came during seasons contested in odd-numbered years.

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It All Comes Down to Cam

At mid-season last year, Carolina was 6-2 and looking every bit like a serious contender. Then the entire campaign went off the rails and the Panthers were a second-half dumpster fire, going 1-7.

The crash centered around the shoulder ailment of quarterback Cam Newton, which impacted his ability to throw the ball effectively.

Newton underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his right shoulder in January. If he’s back to the Cam of old, expect Carolina to shift into overdrive.

A Favorable Schedule

It’s a tough start for Carolina, facing a Week 1 date with the defending NFC champion Los Angeles Rams. But overall, the slate handed the team isn’t bad. The strength of schedule the Panthers will be facing is 16th in the league.

Opponents posted a .502 winning percentage last season. Ten of 16 opponents endured losing campaigns in 2018.

We see a bounceback year for Carolina. We’ll say 9-7. Play the over.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-135)

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