Parlay These Week 9 NFL Player Props for Big Potential 28-1 Payout

• There is a lot of right-skewed variance when it comes to star players’ performance versus their standard prop lines
• For this reason, betting the right NFL player prop milestones presents solid expected value
• See the four players I am parlaying to all have big games in Week 9

When I’m betting NFL player props, I often like to add some extra yardage and turn them into milestones that come with longer odds, especially when it’s players with big over/unders. If they’re going to go over their standard line, their usage and opportunity is so great that their ceiling are almost uncapped – the technical explanation is the right-skewed variance and fat-tailed distributions of these star players.

I have found four players in Week 9 who are showing strong signals for having big games. So, I have added a little extra onto their prop lines, and am parlaying all of them together for my best longshot NFL parlay today.

NFL Player Prop Parlay for Week 9

While all four of these players have put forth big games in previous weeks of the season, proving they’re more than capable of racking up yardage, they also have very strong underlying metrics that highlight their usage/opportunity each week. It’s the latter that provides me with the confidence to bet them to firmly outperform their standard over/unders.

I do like to bet each of these as singles, but the main purpose here is the four-leg, longshot NFL player prop parlay that comes with +2759 odds. The best odds I could find at the time of writing this were at DraftKings. But you can also take advantage of prediction market apps, who now offer “combos” and have milestones for all player props as well.

Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving Yards

• Opponent: Commanders (28th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 92.5

When Puka Nacua was playing alongside Davante Adams, his usage was not that strong. However, he has seen elite usage in his last two games, which were played without Adams. Here’s what that has looked like:

• Week 7 vs. LV: 10 targets (34.5% target share), 8 rec, 68 yds
• Week 8 vs. LAC: 12 targets (48% target share), 11 rec, 80 yds

His target share over the two weeks comes out to 40.7%, and his air yards share has been 27.6%. This calculates out to an elite 0.804 WOPR, which only trails Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Though the extra opportunity has not yet resulted in any truly big performances for Nacua, this usage is too much to look past, and he’s too explosive of a player to be held in check for too long.

I like his opportunity to breakout in Week 9, as he takes on a vulnerable Commanders defense in a game that the spread (4.5) suggests will be competitive. Washington ranks 9th-worst in adjusted net yards per pass attempt and have seen the 10th-most 20+ yard pass attempts against them.

Kenneth Walker III 110+ Rushing Yards

• Opponent: Jets (21st vs Run)
• Standard Receiving Line: 90.5

Kenneth Walker has been bottled up over Kansas City’s last two games, both of which were losses. A Week 9 matchup with the Jets is the perfect opportunity for the RB to get himself, and his team, back on track.

Walker dominates early-down carry share (78.7%), averages an extremely impressive 3.84 yards after contact per carry, forces missed tackles at a 34% rate, and turns 14.2% of his rushing attempts into 10+ yard gains. He had achieved the 110+ milestone in four of his first five games before being slowed by the stingy Seahawks and Broncos defenses.

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The Jets do not have the defense to slow Walker, in my opinion. They allow 123.6 rushing yards per game on an average of 4.0 yards per carry. This is the game where Walker explodes.

CeeDee Lamb 90+ Receiving Yards

• Opponent: Colts (12th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 81.5

In spite of CeeDee Lamb’s surface level stats not looking that great over his last four games – less than 75 receiving yards in each game – his opportunity has remained elite.

Lamb’s WOPR is 0.742, derived from a 31.3% target share and 38.9% air yards share, and he has left a fair bit of meat on the bone this season, generating 371 unrealized air yards. In each of his last three games, Lamb has seen at least 11 targets, totaling 41 in that time.

The breakout is coming and I believe it’s going to be this week against the Colts. Indianapolis is 3rd-worst in the NFL in adjusted net yards per pass attempt, and they’ve seen the 8th-most deep passes (20+ air yards) attempted against them.

While the Colts are trading away some of their top players, leaving them to get crushed by the Jaguars last week, I’m not confident the Cowboys will break this game open and find themselves playing with a big lead very early. Their defense is one of the worst in the league, and do a great job letting opposing offenses put up points quickly – see the loss to the Cardinals last week.

James Cook 90+ Rushing Yards

• Opponent: Vikings (17th vs Run)
• Standard Receiving Line: 82.5

Admittedly, the Vikings defense scares me a bit. But I’m not betting the Bills to have success through the air against the league’s best pass defense. I am betting James Cook to have success against a mediocre defense against the run, who just gave up 230 yards on the ground to the Lions last week.

Cook has some of the best blocking in the league, as he averages 2.25 yards before contact per carry, which he then turns into a very strong 5.12 yards per carry. He also sees plenty of opportunities each game, as the Bills run the ball at a 47.1% clip in neutral situations, and it’s reasonable to assume that rate will be even higher against a defense that has been incredibly stingy against the pass.

The Vikings haven’t tackled ball-carriers very well this season, allowing 3.35 yards after contact per carry and a 20% missed tackle rate. This is concerning for them as they prepare for Cook, who has forced missed tackles at a 17.4% rate and turns carries into 10+ yards on 16.7% of his carries.