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Patriots Have NFL’s Hardest Schedule in 2023, Saints Have Easiest

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Aug 2, 2023 · 6:14 AM PDT

New England Patriots head coach and GM Bill Belichick.
Jan 1, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the field for warm ups before the start of the game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Patriots have the toughest schedule in the 2023 NFL season
  • The Saints have the easiest 2023 NFL schedule
  • Have a look at what makes their schedules so tough/easy and which other teams are on each end of NFL strength of schedule rankings

We are just mere days away from the 2023 NFL preseason kicking off, which means we are just over a month away from kicking the real season off! One of the biggest questions football fans, specifically football bettors, want answered in the next month is, who has the easiest and toughest schedules this season – in other words, 2023 NFL strength of schedule.

As I do every offseason, I have used my proprietary calculation for NFL strength of schedule to rank all 32 teams’ schedules for the upcoming 2023 season. You can see the full breakdown with an explanation on my method by clicking through the link in the last sentence, but I’ll give you the major takeaways below:

Who Has the Hardest NFL Schedule in 2023-24?

Based off my NFL SOS calculation, the team with the hardest schedule this season is the New England Patriots. The sum of their opponents’ NFL win totals is higher than any other team in the league. This is largely due to the incredibly tough AFC East, which now features Aaron Rodgers under center for the New York Jets. None of their divisional foes have a win total less than 9.5, with the Bills being listed at 10.5. Six of the Pats’ games will come against these three teams.

The tough games don’t stop there, though, as they also see the Eagles in Week 1, Cowboys, and Chiefs, among others. This helps explain why the Patriots’ win total is listed at 6.5 and they’re given lengthy +800 odds to win the division. Bill Belichick and Mac Jones are going to have their work cut out for them this season.

Here’s a look at the other toughest schedules this season:

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Buffalo Bills
  3. Kansas City Chiefs
  4. Las Vegas Raiders
  5. Miami Dolphins

As I mentioned earlier, the AFC East is going to be tough this season. Of the five hardest NFL schedules this season, three of them belong to AFC East teams. The New York Jets, who are the lone AFC East team not in the top five toughest schedules, come in with the eighth-toughest schedule.

Who Has the Easiest NFL Schedule in 2023-24?

The easiest 2023-24 NFL schedule belongs to the New Orleans Saints. The sum of their opponents’ win totals is less than any other team in the league. As was the case with the Patriots above, this is largely thanks to the Saints’ division. No team in the NFC South has a win total greater than 8.5 and the Buccaneers are as low as 6.5. Those teams account for six of New Orleans’ games this season.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule for Every Team Calculated Properly
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They also benefit from their third-place schedule that sees them draw a Rams team who the sportsbooks don’t expect much from and the Patriots. Add in the Texans and Colts from their crossover with the AFC South and the Saints look ahead to the league’s easiest schedule.

Here’s a look at the other easiest schedules this season:

  1. New Orleans Saints
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. Indianapolis Colts
  4. San Francisco 49ers
  5. Carolina Panthers

The NFC South is basically the opposite of the AFC East this season. Three of the top five easiest schedules belong to NFC South teams, thanks to them all getting to play each other, and the outlier (Tampa Bay) has the 16th-toughest schedule.

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