Upcoming Match-ups

Patriots Listed as 3.5-Point Favorites Over Eagles in Opening Week 11 Spread

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 12:41 PM PDT

Bill Belichick press conference
Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are an NFL-best 47-9 following a loss since 2003. Photo by Mike Burton (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The New England Patriots have won an NFL-leading 14 games coming out of a bye week since 2010
  • New England is an NFL-best 47-9 (83.9 percent) following a loss since 2003
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-4 following their bye week since 2010

Let’s face it, when it comes to facing the New England Patriots, there’s never a good time for it. However, the Philadelphia Eagles find themsevels squaring off with the Pats on two occasions when it’s least advisable.

New England is coming off a loss. The Patriots are also returning from their bye week.

In each of these scenarios – surprise, surprise – the Pats are among the NFL elite.

Perhaps it’s not shocking then that sportsbooks have opened New England as 3.5-point road favorites in the Patriots vs Eagles odds as they travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a Super Bowl 52 rematch.

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New England Patriots OFF -3.5 (-111) Over 45.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles OFF +3.5 (-109) Under 45.5 (-110)

Odds taken Nov. 10.

The Pats are 3-2 against the spread as a road favorite this season.

Patriots Bye-ing In

Matching wits with Patriots head coach Bill Belichick when he’s had a week to prepare for a game might be the toughest challenge to face in the NFL today. Now, give the Hoodie an additional week to prepare for a game, and things really get dicey.

No NFL team has won more games following a week off over the past decade than the Patriots. Straight up, New England is 14-4 (77.8 percent) following a bye week since 2010. Only the Baltimore Ravens (9-2, .81.8 percent) own a better winning percentage in this scenario over the same time frame.

However, the Pats are just 11-6-1 against the spread in those 18 post-bye week contests since 2010. That’s only eighth-best in the NFL.

New England is 7-1 ATS off the bye week since 2015, though. But that only loss was to the Eagles in Super Bowl 52.

Pats Don’t Stand For Losing

New England’s perfect season came to an end last week via a 37-20 loss to the Ravens at Baltimore. That means the Patriots were left with two weeks to stew over a setback. And you don’t like to face the Pats when they’re angry.

Since the start of the 2016 season, New England is 8-2 straight up in games following a loss. The Pats’  80 percent success rate in this scenario is second only to the Seattle Seahawks (16-3, 84.2 percent).

The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in those games. Again, only Seattle (12-5-2, 70.6 percent) is ahead of New England.

Where Will Inconsistent Eagles Land?

The Eagles have won two in a row to get above .500 at 5-4. They beat the 8-2 NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers 34-27. But Philly has also dropped one-sided games to the Dallas Cowboys (37-10) and Minnesota Vikings (38-20) and were defeated 24-20 by the 2-7 Atlanta Falcons.

The Eagles are 2-2 against teams with winning records and 3-2 against teams with losing records.

Will The Line Stand Pat?

Philly is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Eagles are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games but a dismal 2-8 ATS in their last eight visits to Philadelphia. On the other hand, New England has won and covered handily in its last two visits to Philly: 38-20 in 2011, when the Pats were also the -3.5-point chalk, and 31-10 as four-point underdogs in 2003.

Philadelphia is just 2-2 ATS at home this season. The Patriots have covered in eight straight regular-season games following their bye week.

The time to bet New England is right now. If anything, the line figures to move further toward the Patriots.

Therefore, if wagering on the Eagles is under consideration, waiting would be advisable.

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