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Payton’s Plays: NFL Week 7

Gary Payton

by Gary Payton in Gary Payton Picks

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Well my teaser didn’t work out last week thanks to Big Ben going down in the Pittsburgh/Miami game. That ended up being just one of a bunch of huge upsets so far this season. Most weeks the best teams in the league – your Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks (Whattup Seattle!?) – look like the best teams in the league. But they’re also laying the odd egg, and a lot of other teams everyone thinks are good (but really aren’t that great) are doing the same. Did you see the Packers getting crushed at home by a couple rookies? I thought Dallas would make it a game. I didn’t think they’d run away with it – literally.

Where am I going with this? It seems like you can count on at least one big upset every week this season. Week 7 has some big spreads, and that means some value on the moneyline. This week I’m gonna play three big(ish) upsets (New Orleans, San Diego, and Houston).

If one hits, I’ll come out ahead. If a couple hit, I’ll see you at The Bellagio.

I’m not saying any one of these is a great bet on its own, but when you put all three together, I really like the chances one will come through. Here’s why …


New Orleans (315) at Kansas City

The Saints aren’t great. But their offense is. You saw what a really good offense can do to KC when the Chiefs got demolished by Pittsburgh. KC’s own offense is going to get theirs against the Saints’ D. Everyone does. But expect this one to be close. Drew Brees can go toe-to-toe with anyone, especially when he has time to work. And KC doesn’t have much of a pass rush. They got a good secondary, but in a good secondary vs. great QB matchup, gimme the QB every time.

KC is tough to beat at home, no doubt. But New Orleans shouldn’t be this big a ‘dog.

Pick: New Orleans (+315)


San Diego (255) at Atlanta

San Diego kept finding new ways to lose in the first five weeks. It was actually pretty entertaining stuff as long as you’re not a Charger fan. But the bottom line is that they were in every game and really should have won most of them. Instead, thanks to a bunch of bad fourth-quarter fumbles and stupid coaching decisions, they’re just 2-4.

But they just beat the reigning Super Bowl champs last week and would be right back in the playoff race with another win in Atlanta. They should be real motivated.

Atlanta is legit for sure. They showed that last week when they almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle. But this one should be like the Saints/Chiefs game. Philip Rivers is a great QB and will move the ball against a vulnerable Atlanta defense. With Joey Bosa finally balling out on D, the Chargers could get to Matt Ryan and slow down the Falcons’ offense. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but it could, and +255 ain’t a bad price.

Pick: San Diego (+255)


Houston (295) at Denver

Lamar Miller finally showed up in Houston last week. The dude was a stud. Did you see that cutback touchdown? Brock Osweiler still isn’t much of a quarterback, even though he finished last week pretty good, but that win over Indy will give him some confidence as he heads back to Denver. If he was ever going to put together a full 60 minutes, you know he’ll want to do it in Elway’s house.

Denver’s no joke on D. Von Miller is the man and that secondary is for real. But they’re not the best against the run, and that’s what Houston did really good last week. They’re going to keep feeding Miller if they’re smart.

The Houston defense ain’t bad, itself, with or without JJ Watt. The Denver QBs are nothing special and neither is the offensive line. I see a way Houston runs to a W in a low-scoring game.

Pick: Houston (+295)

 

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