Payton’s Plays: NFL Week 8
My moneyline upsets came out ahead last week thanks to the Chargers pulling one out against the Falcons. The Texans and Saints both lost so it wasn’t the huge payout I was hoping for, but San Diego was a +255 ‘dog so I still came out with a profit.
For Week 8 I’m going back to the spread because there are a couple lines that love.
What if I told you that a team that’s 4-0 away was a road ‘dog to a team that hasn’t won at home? Well they are. So you can see why I’m keen to take some points this week.
Oakland (1.5) at Tampa Bay
Ya I’m from Oakland but this ain’t no homer pick. This is all stats. Oakland’s 4-0 on the road, straight-up and against the spread. Tampa is 0-2 at home, straight-up and against the spread. It doesn’t matter where they play, one of these teams is good, the other isn’t.
Sure, all the Raiders wins are against pretty bad teams (Saints, Titans, Ravens, Chargers, Jaguars), but Tampa is just another pretty bad team.
Derek Carr didn’t look real good against Kansas City a couple weeks back. That was in a storm. He was money against the Jags last Sunday, and the forecast in Tampa looks real nice. Take those points, baby!
Pick: Oakland (+1.5)
Kansas City (-2.5) at Indianapolis
Man, Indy does one thing really good. Andrew Luck hooks up with T.Y. Hilton for big play after big play. I dunno why teams haven’t game-planned to stop that connection better. But I bet you Andy Reid and the Chiefs do just that.
KC’s got a real good secondary. Second-year stud Marcus Peters has it on lock and Eric Berry is a hawk at safety. They don’t get much of a pass rush up front, but can dial up blitzes to get pressure. Reid’s gonna take away what Indy does best, and Indy doesn’t do anything else well.
On the other side of the ball KC is gonna run over the Colts. Indy’s D-line can’t stop the rush and the Chiefs have two beasts in the backfield, Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles. Even if Charles is still injured, Ware is a monster these days. Bad matchup for Indy all around.
Pick: KC (-2.5)
