NFL Picks & Straight-Up Predictions for Week 10: Data-Driven Best Bets from Model That’s +13.4 Units

Following a dominant 12-3 showing in Week 9, SBD’s straight-up NFL picks return to tackle the Week 10 slate. That electric performance pushed our prediction model to a 74-46-1 overall record on the season (61.57% win rate), driving our cumulative profit to +13.362 units on uniform one-unit wagers.

Week 10 action kicks off on Thursday, November 12, at 8:15 PM ET as the Washington Commanders (2-5-1 SU) travel to face the New York Giants (5-2-1 SU) in a key NFC East clash. The slate concludes on Monday Night Football on November 16 with the winless Los Angeles Chargers (0-8 SU) visiting the Baltimore Ravens (4-5 SU) at M&T Bank Stadium. Without further delay, here are the model’s top straight-up NFL moneyline picks for Week 10.

NFL Picks & Straight-Up Predictions for Week 10

The model is favorite-heavy in Week 10, but why fix what isn’t broken? The Week 10 SU picks include 10 favorites and four underdogs.

Best Bets for Week 10

• Lions (58¢ / -133 at Novig) over Patriots
  The Lions boast elite efficiency, carrying a +33 point differential and an active four-game winning streak. Conversely, the Patriots sit with a pedestrian +4 point differential. Despite this matchup occurring at a neutral venue in Munich, the statistical superiority of the Lions dictates the handicap. Acquiring a surging squad at just 57.5¢ presents incredible toss-up value against a vulnerable New England defensive scheme.
• Giants (56¢ / -127 at Kalshi) over Commanders
  The Giants defend their home turf effectively, posting a 3-1-0 home record. Meanwhile, the Commanders are floundering, saddled with a winless 0-3-0 road split and a dismal -30 point differential. Priced at a modest 55.5¢, the home favorite presents a superb edge. The market price offers cheap equity to confidently back a defensive unit dispatching an opponent that consistently struggles with field position on the road.
• Dolphins (44¢ / +127 at Novig) over Colts
  While the Dolphins possess an uninspiring overall record, the Colts are in total freefall. The Colts are riding a disastrous five-game losing streak alongside a poor 1-3-0 home record. The prediction market is severely overvaluing a spiraling home favorite. At 43.5¢, backing the Dolphins provides excellent underdog value to fade a Colts roster finding consistent ways to lose the turnover battle.

Upset Picks for Week 10

• Panthers (48¢ / +108 at Novig) over Saints
  Despite identical overall records, the Panthers boast a superior point differential (-20 vs -31) and a solid 2-2 road mark. The favored Saints have floundered at home with a dismal 1-4 record. The market underrates Carolina’s road competence and the severe home struggles plaguing the Saints. At 47.5¢, the Panthers offer excellent leverage to exploit a vulnerable favorite.
• Raiders (37¢ / +170 at Novig) over Seahawks
  The Seahawks hold a losing 1-2 road record this season and have proven highly vulnerable as slight favorites. The Seahawks are just 1-3 straight-up in their last four games when favored by fewer than seven points. The market continues to underrate Seattle’s road woes and late-game execution struggles. At 36.5¢, the Raiders present an appealing situational home underdog to pull off the outright win.
• Steelers (36¢ / +178 at Polymarket) over Bengals
  Both AFC North rivals sit at 6-2 overall and are riding four-game winning streaks. However, the Steelers bring a proven 2-1 divisional record this season. The market underrates Pittsburgh’s matching elite form and the leveling effect of a fierce divisional ground-and-pound battle. Backing a battle-tested divisional underdog at 35.5¢ provides significant value against the Bengals.