Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

Updated NFL Player Incentives & Prop Totals – Which Players Have Bonuses on the Line in Week 18?

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated: January 4, 2025 at 10:15 am EST

Published:


Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield throwing a pass
Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws the ball against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
  • A dozen players have big incentives and bonuses on the line in Week 18
  • Derrick Henry will earn a $500k bonus with just one more touchdown
  • Below, see the full list of NFL player incentives and props to target in Week 18

Just one week remains in the NFL regular season and a dozen different players have money on the line in Week 18 thanks to performance incentives. The table below lists those players in alphabetical order, along with the dollar value of their incentive, their incentive target(s), and what they need to do in Week 18 to claim their bonus(es).

NFL Player Bonuses on the Line in Week 18

Player (Team) Incentive Target Current Status (Needs) Relevant Prop(s) & Odds
Baker Mayfield (TB) $500k each Top-10 in (a) passer rating, (b) passing yards, (c) TD passes, (d) completion %, (e) YPA (a) 4th, (b) 3rd, (c) 2nd, (d) 2nd, (e) 7th O/U 252.5 passing yards (O -120/U -110); O/U 1.5 TD passes (O -200/U +150)
Courtland Sutton (DEN) $500k 1,065 receiving yards 983 yards (82 yards) O/U receiving yards: 72.5 (O -120/U -110)
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) $25ok each (a) 65 catches, (b) 750 receiving yards (a) 56 catches (9 catches), (b) 610 yards (140 yards) None posted
Derrick Henry (BAL) $500k 15 TDs 14 TDs (1 TD) Anytime TD (-260); First TD (+250)
Geno Smith (SEA) $2m each (a) 4,283 passing yards, (b) 69.76 completion %, (c) 10 wins (a) 4,097 yards (186 yards), (b) 70.2% (-0.44%), (c) 9 wins (beat Rams) O/U passing yards: 244.5 (O -120/U -110); 200+ passing yards: (-400); Seahawks win (-258)
JK Dobbins (LAC) $150k 900 rushing yards 842 yards (58 yards) None posted
Josh Sweat (PHI) $250k 10 sacks 8 sacks (2 sacks) None posted
Mike Evans (TB) $3m (a) 1,000 receiving yards AND (b) 70 catches (a) 915 yards (85 yards), (b) 65 catches (5 catches) 90+ receiving yards (-170)
Tony Pollard (TEN) $250k/200k (a) 1,100 rushing yards, (b) 7 TDs (a) 1,017 yards (83 yards), (b) 5 TDs (2 TDs) Anytime TD (-130); 2+ TDs (+475); First TD (+400)
Von Miller (BUF) $1.5m 6 sacks 5 sacks (1 sack) None posted
Zach Ertz (WSH) $25ok each (a) 70 catches, (b) 700 rec. yards, (c) 8 TDs (a) 61 catches (9 catches), (b) 610 yards (90 yards), (c) 6 TDs (2 TDs) 90+ receiving yards (+900); 2+ TDs (+1300)
Za’Darius Smith (DET) $25ok 10 sacks 8 sacks (2 sacks) None posted

The odds in the final column are from DraftKings on Jan. 4. “Current Status” means as of the end of Week 17. Check out SBD’s NFL player props page to see where to find the best lines on every player’s O/Us in Week 18.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK


Get Your First Bet Back - Up To $1,059 On Caesars!

LOCK IN PROMO
CODE: SBD1000
CODE: SBD1000
SIGNUP PROMO
GET UP TO
$1,059 BACK

ON CAESARS!

CLAIM OFFER

Derrick Henry Only Needs One Touchdown

The simplest incentive on the board is Derrick Henry, who needs just one more touchdown to land a bonus of $500,000. Henry already earned his first $500k by hitting 13 TDs back in Week 11. At that point, it seemed like an absolute lock that he would get to 15 barring injury. After all, he’d scored at least one touchdown in ten of Baltimore’s first 11 games.

But then he was held touchdown-less in four straight before finally finding the end zone again in Week 17 against Houston.

In Week 18, Henry’s Ravens host the division-trailing Browns (3-13), needing a victory to secure the AFC East title. It’s likely we see a decent-sized dose of Henry in the first half as the Ravens remove any doubt about the final outcome.

The spread in the Browns/Ravens matchup has been bet up all the way from Baltimore -16.5 to Baltimore -20.0, the biggest spread of the entire NFL season. Henry is priced at -260 in the anytime touchdown markets.

Hopkins Might Not Even Play

DeAndre Hopkins would need to have a huge day to meet his two incentive targets of 65 catches and 750 receiving yards, currently sitting on 56 catches and 610 yards. The prospect of a nine-catch, 140-yard day isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but Nuke might not even get the chance. The Chiefs are among the teams resting starters in Week 18, which is likely to include the 32-year-old.

And even if Hopkins is in the lineup, he would need to put up those huge numbers with Carson Wentz starting in place of three-time MVP Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs/Broncos odds opened at Denver -6.5 and are now sitting at Denver -10.5. Hopkins isn’t on the board in the receiving props.

Sack Incentives in Week 18: Josh Sweat, Von Miller, Za’Darius Smith

A trio of edge rushers are within two sacks of landing sizable bonuses. The closest is Buffalo’s Von Miller, who only needs one more QB takedown to his his target of six sacks, which would land the 14-year pro an extra $1.5 million. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott announced he would play a “mix” of starters and backups against the Patriots in Week 18. Without further clarification on what that means, sportsbooks have been hesitant to post player props for the game. As of 10am ET on Friday, none were available.

The other two edge rushers at play, Philadelphia’s Josh Sweat and Detroit’s Za’Darius Smith, have a tougher task, and have less to gain. Both are two sacks away from earning a $250k bonus.

Sweat’s Eagles host the lowly Giants in Week 18 and have nothing to play for. They have already own the NFC East and cannot catch the Vikings/Lions for the #1 seed in the NFC. It’s possible that Sweat either doesn’t play or plays limited snaps. He isn’t listed in the defensive player props at this point in time.

Smith, on the other hand, will be involved in the game of the season between his 14-2 Lions and the 14-2 Vikings, where the winner will claim not just the NFC North title but also the #1 seed and lone bye in the NFC. Strangely, the sack props have opened for several players in Vikings/Lions, including Smith’s teammate Jack Campbell, but Smith himself is not yet on the board.

Week 18 QB Incentives: Mayfield, Smith

The two quarterbacks with major incentives on the line in Week 18 are Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Seattle’s Geno Smith.

Mayfield’s incentives are tied to finishing top-ten in the NFL (or top-five in the NFC) in five different statistical categories, and he’s on track to get all five as things currently stand. With Mayfield’s Bucs need a win over the Saints to secure first-place in the NFC South and, with it, a playoff berth. It’s unlikely Mayfield’s incentives will be a factor in how he approaches this must-win game.

The same can’t be said for Smith. The Seattle pivot is just 186 yards away from a $2 million bonus for hitting 4,097 yards. He also needs to maintain a completion percentage of 69.76% or better to land another $2 million, and he’s perilously close to dropping below that number at 70.2%. Lastly, Smith could earn another $2 million by getting his Seahawks to 10 wins with a victory over the division-rival Rams.

Unfortunately for Smith, most of his teammates won’t share his motivation to pick up the W. The Rams clinched the NFC West last week, eliminating Seattle from playoff contention.

  • BET365 SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365

  • BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE SBD1550 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS + $50 BETMGM REWARDS

  • CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE SBD1000 & GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK - UP TO $1,059 BACK ON CAESARS!

  • DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $250 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

  • FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $200 IF YOUR BET WINS

  • Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

NFL NBA MLB NHL NCAAF NCAAB Politics Tennis MMA Sportsbooks Gambling

Recommended Reading


sports betting dime logo

Unfiltered sports betting coverage every fan needs — squeezed into your inbox before dinner.

Sign Up Now!

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, to receive updates and offers and confirm you are 21+ and have never self excluded from betting or gambling. Unsubscribe at any time. Please gamble responsibly. Need help? 1-800-GAMBLER