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Road Dogs Are 8-3-1 ATS in 2019; Will That Trend Continue Sunday of Week 2?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 12:12 PM PDT

Russell Wilson attempted just 20 passes in a Week 1 win over Cincinnati. Photo from @DangeRussWilson (Twitter)
  • Road dogs off to 1-0 start in Week 2 after Bucs beat Panthers
  • Six more road underdogs put to the test on Sunday
  • Who should you be targeting or shying away from?

Last Sunday, Jameis Winston was busy throwing dimes to the opposition in an ugly season opening loss to the 49ers.

Less than 96 hours later, Tampa Bay was supposed to get crushed in Carolina, but those plans went sideways.

Was it the power of Bruce Arians’ gameplan, a still-wobbly Cam Newton, or this season’s en vogue betting phenomenon so far: the road dog?

That win pushed road dogs to 8-3-1 in 12 games this year, with another six pieces of sports betting data to add to this small, but perhaps profitable corner come Sunday.

Road Underdog ATS Week 2

Road Underdog Opponent Spread
Colts Titans +3.5 (-119)
Cardinals Ravens +13 (-114)
Jaguars Texans +8.5 (-109)
Seahawks Steelers +3.5 (-109)
Vikings Packers +2.5 (-104)
Saints Rams +2 (-109)

*odds from 15/09/19

The Steelers, Falcons and Giants were thoroughly pummeled as the visitors in Week 1, but there were some feisty performances from the Redskins, Bengals and Texans in a losing effort. Meanwhile, the Packers, Titans, 49ers and Bills all just won outright as visitors. The Colts provided the push.

Will this trend continue in Week 2? Among all the NFL odds, there are a few matchups you should have your eye on.

Beware the Inter-Divisional Showdowns

As I’ve stated numerous times, I am not a fan of taking a favorite (overwhelming or otherwise) and giving points in a divisional game. There’s just too much volatility for my liking. Take the Week 1 NFC East showdown in Philly.

Before almost every fan filed into the Linc, the ‘Skins had already punched the Eagles in the mouth and led 17-0. Even after Carson Wentz righted the ship and Philly dominated, Case Keenum ensured the ‘dog cover with a late TD to make it 32-27. Many sportsbooks had the Eagles giving at least nine points! Carolina was favored by seven on Thursday night.

There are three such tilts on the docket this Sunday and you should consider some weird stuff going down. I get the Colts are minus Andrew Luck, but they went tooth-and-nail with a really good Chargers team and didn’t flinch. That overtime loss coupled with Tennessee’s crushing win over the Browns has the home-Titans as 3.5-point favorites.

The Colts have a bulldozing offensive line, and they helped plow over 200 rushing yards on the day – second only to the Ravens. Jacoby Brissett only threw for 173 yards, but that’s ok. Indy will be able to grind the opposition down, and this one will be close, which makes that extra half point all the more important.

Expect even crazier happenings in Houston, where Jags starting pivot Gardner Minshew arrived in H-Town looking like he was more ready to light up Studio 54 than the Jaguars defense.

Everyone is scrambling to find out who this dude is, after he looked completely at ease in relief duty for injured Nick Foles. Minshew went 22-for-25 for 275 yards, tossing two TDs and one interception in a game that was well in hand for the Chiefs.

Clearly Deshaun Watson is the best QB in this game, but it’s also fair to say that Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien is almost always the shakiest decision maker on the sidelines in a Houston game. 8.5 points is a lot to give.

You Might Want to Avoid AFC West Teams

I’ve already covered why the Cardinals-Ravens matchup is intriguing but ultimately one of the biggest beatings a visiting team will take in the NFL in Week 2, but it’s another NFC West team that doesn’t exactly have us beaming with confidence when the Seahawks go into Heinz to play the Steelers.

Let’s just state the obvious: the Seahawks looked frustrating in Week 1, and they’re just not the same collection of talent that, win or lose, made them one of the toughest outs in football.

Andy Dalton lit them on fire, missing both his starting left tackle and top receiving option in AJ Green, throwing for over 400 yards and two scores. On offense, Brian Schottenheimer continues to run the most conservative playbook in football, driving Chris Carson or whoever else they have at RB into into the line, beware hoping for a long Russ 3rd down conversion to bail them out.

Wilson had one chance to let it rip all game, and he connects to give Seattle a win. He attempted 20 passes total on the day for just 195 yards. Take that conservative offense into Steeltown, against a desperate squad that needs to get a W, and you’ve got a recipe for a spread that doesn’t look like it’s going to get covered.

Despite some setbacks, expect the road dogs to leave Week 2 with a winning record.

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