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Sean Payton Given -110 Odds to Be Broncos Next Head Coach

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Jan 24, 2023 · 6:36 AM PST

Sean Payton on the sidelines for the Saints
Dec 2, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton looks on against Dallas Cowboys during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
  • Sean Payton is the favorite to land the Broncos’ head coaching gig
  • Payton is still under contract with the Saints, and New Orleans is asking for a hefty price in return for his services
  • Check out the latest odds to be Denver’s next head coach, plus analysis and a prediction

There are certainly perks to taking over the Broncos’ vacant head coaching position. The offense boasts young, dynamic skill position players, while the defense was one of the best in the league in 2022.

There’s also a massive drawback to accepting the gig. That of course would be the fact that you’re tied to Russell Wilson and his outrageous contract for the foreseeable future.

If there’s one person online sportsbooks believe is brash enough to think they can turn Russ’ career around it’s Sean Payton. The Super Bowl 44 champion is the favorite to become Denver’s next head coach, despite the price it will cost the Broncos to land him.

Denver Broncos Next Coach Odds

Team Odds
Sean Payton -110
Dan Quinn +250
Demeco Ryans +750
Jerry Rosburg +1200
Jim Caldwell +1500
Ejiro Evero +1800
Shane Steichen +2000
David Shaw +2000
Jonathan Gannon +2500
Frank Reich +3000

Odds as of January 23 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on NFL Futures.

Payton’s odds to land the job were slashed to -110 on Monday evening, after sitting at +175 earlier in the afternoon. He’s followed by Cowboys defensive co-ordinator Dan Quinn, and 49ers DC Demeco Ryans.

Payton interviewed with Denver last Tuesday and reportedly has another meeting lined up with the Broncos in the immediate future. In the meantime, he’s interviewing with the Cardinals on Thursday, the fourth different team he’s met with already.

Why Payton Makes Sense for Denver’s Next Head Coach

Denver has struggled to find much offensive success in the seven years since Peyton Manning retired. It hasn’t been due to a lack of quality skill position players, but rather below-average QB play.

They thought they fixed that problem by paying a king’s ransom for Wilson. They were wrong. The Broncos ranked dead last in scoring in 2022 averaging 16.9 points. It took Russ until Christmas Day to throw as many touchdown passes (12) as he has bathrooms in his house.

Wilson is under contract for six more years in Denver, and the amount of dead cap space cutting him would cost guarantees he’ll be the starter for a while. Whoever the Broncos hire has to get Russ cooking again.

Payton’s pedigree certainly suggests he could do just that. During his 16 seasons in New Orleans, the Saints ranked second in the league in scoring. They led the NFL in total offense during that stretch, as well as third-down conversation rate and red zone conversion rate.

Playing on turf and having Drew Brees as his quarterback certainly contributed to Payton’s success, but he’s widely considered one of the best offensive minds in football.

After seeing a first-time hire in Nathaniel Hackett flame out this season, you can bet Denver will be set on hiring a coach with plenty of experience.

Why the Broncos Should Pass on Payton

Payton is still under contract with the Saints. In order to obtain his services, it will cost a potential suitor at minimum a first-round pick. Denver traded away a bounty of draft picks for Wilson, but still owns a late first-round selection this year. They could throw in a mid-round pick in next year’s draft to sweeten the pot, but they’ll still have to pay Payton a hefty sum.

He’s reportedly looking for somewhere in the $20-$25 million range per season. Sure, that salary doesn’t count against the cap, but do you really want to pay your head coach that much money after already backing up the Brinks truck for Russ?

Furthermore, if the Broncos are being realistic with themselves do they really think their roster is just a head coach away from competing for a Super Bowl? They play in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, not to mention Justin Herbert and a very talented Chargers team.

They’d be better off pursuing a less expensive option, one that won’t cause them to mortgage their future even further.

Broncos Should Consider Quinn Again

Someone like Dallas DC Dan Quinn jumps off the page. He was a finalist last year before the job was given to Hackett, and Denver would be wise to correct their mistake. Quinn checks the box in terms of experience and just finished leading the Cowboys to the second-best defensive ranking per DVOA.

He took Atlanta to the Super Bowl as a head coach in the 2016 season, and most importantly he’s very familiar with Wilson. Quinn was the Seahawks’ defensive co-ordinator in 2013 when they trounced the Broncos in Super Bowl 48.

Another interesting wrinkle is that Quinn was colleagues in Dallas with Brian Schottenheimer, who was Russ’ OC in Seattle from 2018 to 2020. The pair could come to Denver as a head coach, offensive co-ordinator duo, one that Wilson would be very comfortable with.

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