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Sharps Are Betting Against San Francisco and Kansas City in Week 14

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 1:44 PM PDT

San Francisco 49ers fans cheering on their team
Will the 49ers and Rams be unbeaten when they meet in Week 6 action? Photo by BrokenSphere (Wikimedia).
  • Sharp bettors are wagering 9.3% of their money on the New Orleans Saints against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14 of the NFL schedule
  • The smart money is also backing the New England Patriots (8.8%) strongly at home over the visiting Kansas City Chiefs
  • There’s plenty of wagers from sharps on the Atlanta Falcons (8.5%), Tennessee Titans (7%) and Buffalo Bills (6.5%) as well

For the second straight week, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs find themselves locked into two of the biggest games on the NFL schedule. This week, though, the sharps aren’t as sold on the Niners being a wise wager.

During Week 13, 8.6% of all sharp money wagered was bet on the 49ers against the Baltimore Ravens. It proved to be a wise investment.

San Francisco lost 20-17, to Baltimore. However, the Niners covered as six-point road underdogs. This week, San Fran is on the road again, facing the New Orleans Saints as two-point underdogs.

This week, the sharps like the Saints over the 49ers. 9.3% of sharp wagers during Week 14 are on New Orleans. That’s the most on any team.

Right behind then, the sharp bettors are also counting heavily on it being a bounce back week for the New England Patriots. There’s 8.8% of sharp money on the two-time defending Super Bowl champs covering at home as a three-point pick over the Chiefs.

NFL Week 13 Smart Money Bets

Bet Percentage of Smart Money
New Orleans Saints (-2) over San Francisco 49ers 9.3%
New England Patriots (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs 8.8%
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers 8.6%
Tennessee Titans (-3) over Oakland Raiders 7.0%
Buffalo Bills (+6) over Baltimore Ravens 6.5%

Odds taken on Dec. 7

Last week, the Chiefs drubbed the Oakland Raiders 40-9. The win enabled Kansas City to open a two-game lead atop the AFC West Division.

Check out the lines on all of this weekend’s games via the SportsBettingDime.com handy guide to the NFL Week 14 odds.

Another Tough Foe for San Francisco

It’s the third week in a row, and fourth time in five weeks that the 10-2 49ers are squaring off against a current NFL division leader. San Francisco is 2-1 both straight up and against the spread in those games.

Both teams come into this game beat up on defense. San Fran defensive tackle Jullian Taylor, (elbow) and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt (broken rib) are out. Marcell Harris played well against the Ravens last week after replacing the injured Tartt.

New Orleans, also 10-2, will be without linebackers Kiki Alonso (knee) and AJ Klein (thigh). That could open up holes for San Francisco’s powerful run game and create space for tight end George Kittle to get open.

Mobile quarterbacks such as Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Arizona’s Kyler Murray have proven problematic for the Niners defense. But San Francisco is 8-0 against drop-back passers like Drew Brees of the Saints.

The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. The Saints are 2-7 in their last nine as a home favorite.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+2). 

It’s Not Going to Kansas City

Including playoffs, the Patriots have won 21 consecutive home games. One of those 21 victories was a 43-40 decision last season over the Chiefs. New England, 28-22 losers to the Houston Texans last week, hasn’t lost a home game played the week following a defeat since Dec. 6, 2015.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 0-2 against the Pats and Tom Brady. Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last nine trips to Gillette Stadium.

Since 2001, the Pats are 41-11 SU in games following a loss.

Pick: New England Patriots (-3).

How Will Coaching Change Impact Panthers?

Everything is going south for the Carolina Panthers. They’ve lost four in a row and five of six. They’re 2-4 ATS in that span. Panthers QB Kyle Allen has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 29 times during this six-game skid.

No wonder coach Ron Rivera was fired this week.

The line on this game opened at Atlanta -1 and steadily rose to Falcons -3.5 Following a dreadful start, Atlanta is 2-2 SU in the last four and 3-2 ATS in the last five.

The visiting Falcons crushed Carolina 29-3 on Nov. 17 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Remember the Titans?

Following a 2-4 start, quietly, Tennessee has snuck back into the playoff race.

The Titans have won five of six since Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota at QB. They’re also 5-1 ATS with Pennington under center.

Pick: Tennessee Titans (-3).

Raven About the Bills

At 8-3-1, the Buffalo Bills are the NFL’s best ATS bet this season (72.7%). But they’re just 3-3 ATS at home. On the other hand, Buffalo is 1-0 as a home underdog.

Baltimore is 4-2 ATS on the road, and 3-1 ATS as a road favorite. But the Ravens are 0-2 both SU and ATS at Buffalo. They lost both games outright as road favorites.

Pick: Buffalo Bills (+6).

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