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Statistical Projections for Josh Johnson’s 1st Start With Redskins in Week 15

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 10:43 AM PDT

Josh Johnson
Prior to last week, Josh Johnson had not thrown a pass in the regular season since his days with the Buccaneers in 2011. He now enters Week 15 as Washington's latest starting quarterback. By barbsjim (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • The Washington Redskins have a new QB: journeyman backup Josh Johnson
  • After a decent showing in mop-up duty last week, will he carry that success into Week 15?
  • Can the Jaguars second-ranked pass defense shut down the Skins’ new QB?

As the losses and injuries continue to mount in Washington, so does the carousel at the quarterback position. Alex Smith and Colt McCoy have suffered season-ending injuries and recently signed Mark Sanchez lasted all of one start.

Which brings us to journeyman Josh Johnson, who’s been a part of eight different teams in his career before landing with the Redskins last week.

The Skins have now lost four straight and Johnson will look to turn things around as a touchdown-underdog in Jacksonville this weekend. Books have released a number of props on how the 32-year-old will perform in Week 15.

Josh Johnson Completions In Week 15

Result Odds
Over 18.5 -120
Under 18.5 -120

Johnson came on in relief of Sanchez last week and finished a respectable 11/16. However. you have to take into consideration the fact that he entered the game in the third quarter when Washington was already down 40-0.

As you would expect, the Giants had the luxury of playing a softer defense at this point in the game.

Johnson is very much a preseason warrior. Despite being in the league since 2008, he’s only played in 30 games.

The even more shocking statistic is that he’s only completed over 18.5 passes once in his career. That came back in 2009 when he went 26/50 in a 33-14 loss.

From Jacksonville’s perspective, the Jags have allowed an average of 20.5 completions per game, but only seven times have they allowed more than 18.5 in a game this season.

Pick: Under 18.5 Completions

Josh Johnson Interceptions Thrown In Week 15

Result Odds
Over 1.5 +125
Under 1.5 -165

Ok, so we saw what Mark Sanchez was able to bring to the table (very little) after having not played a regular season game for only one season. Against a Giants’ defense which ranked 20th in YPG going into Week 14, Sanchez threw two interceptions.

Upon entering the game, Johnson added to that total with one INT of his own.

Johnson hadn’t thrown a regular season pass since 2011 prior to last week. He’ll now be facing the Jags’ second-ranked pass defense after literally sitting on his couch two Sundays ago.

With 10 interceptions on the year, Jacksonville is averaging a little under one per game. Johnson has thrown 11 career INTs in his 30 career NFL games. 

The Jags’ defense has been hit or miss all season. However, they have one interception in each of the past two games. They also picked off Big Ben three times a few weeks ago.

At home, with time to prepare for Johnson, and at this price, I’ll look to the OVER.

Pick: Over 1.5 Interceptions

Josh Johnson Passing Yards In Week 15

Result Odds
Over 210.5 -120
Under 210.5 -120

Despite a 4-9 record, the Jags have held better quarterbacks than Johnson in check this season. Only seven times this year have opposing quarterbacks gone for over this posted total.

At home, Jacksonville held Pittsburgh to only six points until the fourth quarter in Week 11, and they shut out the Colts two weeks ago.

Now that’s points and not yards. But opposing QBs have thrown for only 162 yards or less against the Jags two of the past three weeks.

The Jags’ pass defense is only allowing 203.7 YPG and should be able to contain Johnson, who’s only thrown over this prop total twice in his career. Last week he threw for 195 yards.

The outcome of this prop should also correlate to my previous completions prediction, so I’ll once again choose the UNDER.

Pick: Under 210.5 Passing Yards

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