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Super Bowl 55 Game Props – Odds on Winning Margin, First Scoring Play, Total Touchdowns and More

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Feb 4, 2021 · 6:00 AM PST

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes runs onto the field before the AFC championship NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers clash in Super Bowl 55 on Sunday, February 7th (6:30 pm EST)
  • There’s a game prop for everything from winning margin to first scoring play and everything else in between
  • Read below to find out where we think the betting value lies

The Super Bowl is by far the best day on the sports betting calendar, and this year’s game promises to be a doozy. The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday (Feb. 7, 6:30 pm EST) in a battle of the new guard led by Patrick Mahomes, versus the old guard captained by the GOAT Tom Brady.

The Chiefs are currently a field goal favorite over the hometown Bucs, but you’d be doing yourself a disservice if that’s the only betting avenue you chose to explore. You can literally bet on everything during the Super Bowl, and often the most beatable lines show up in the game props.

With that in mind, we’ve compiled all of the Touchdown | Score | Gameplay | Kicking | Race to X | Halftime / Full-Time | Winning Margin props for Super Bowl 55 below, and provided our best bets for each category. (See here for our Super Bowl player props.)

Touchdown Props

Prop Over Odds Under Odds
Total TD 6.5 (-121) 6.5 (-113)
Total Yards of Longest TD 45.5 (-114) 45.5 (-114)
Total Yards of Shortest TD 1.5 (+160) 1.5 (-215)
Total Yardage of all TD 121.5 (+110) 121.5 (-140)
Total TD Passes 4.5 (-150) 4.5 (+110)
Prop Yes Odds No Odds
Any Player to Score 3+ TD +500 -950
Either Team to Score Opening Drive TD -145 +115
Both Teams to Score Opening Drive TD +600 -1100
Either Team to Score on First Offensive Play +3400 -8000
Special Team or Defensive Touchdown Scored +225 -300

All odds taken Feb. 2nd from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM.

There’s no better place than touchdown props to start. While you can find each team’s individual props here, this article will focus on the total amount for the entire game.

Big Plays Are Bound to Happen

Last time they met, the Chiefs and Buccaneers produced a plethora of fireworks. They combined for 960 yards of offense and five touchdowns of at least 20 yards.

Of course everyone remembers the 75-yard and 44-yard scores by Tyreek Hill, but the Bucs had multiple 30+ yard touchdowns of their own.

KC’s defense meanwhile, surrendered 54 completions of 20+ yards this season and nine completions of at least 40 yards, something that Tom Brady and company will definitely look to expose. Brady led the league in air yards per attempt during the regular season, which plays right into the hands of Tampa Bay’s big play receivers.

With a game total of 56, oddsmakers expect plenty of touchdowns and both teams have ample amount of explosive playmakers to generate at least one or two long touchdowns to help us hit the over.

Pick: Total Yardage of all TD Over 121.5 (+110)

Score Props

Prop TD FG
First Scoring Play -240 +170
Prop Odd Even
Total Points -136 +104
Prop Over Odds Under Odds
Highest Scoring Quarter Combined Points 20.5 (-165) 20.5 (+130)
Lowest Scoring Quarter Combined Points 3.5 (-210) 3.5 (+160)
Prop Yes Odds No Odds
Either Team to Score Three Straight Times -250 +175
Either Team to Score in Final 2 Minutes of 1st Half -333 +220
Will the Team to Score First Win the Game? -200 +140
Either Team to Record a Safety +800 -1667
Either Team to be Shutout +5000 N/A
Either Team to Have Successful 2-Point Conversion +230 -305
Game To Go Into Overtime +1150 -2300
Both Teams to Lead in 1st Half +115 -145
Both Teams to Lead in 2nd Half +140 -180
Both Teams to Lead in 4th Quarter +300 -430
Prop Chiefs Odds Buccaneers Odds
Team to Score First -138 +100
Team to Score Last -125 -110

The trendy play when winning the coin toss these days is to defer the ball until the second half. That’s what Kansas City has been doing all season and will likely do on Sunday as well, but what about if the Bucs win the toss?

Buccaneers Strike First

Tampa Bay is one of the few teams that likes to set the tone offensively and could wind up getting the ball first no matter who wins the right to choose. They marched 66 yards on their opening drive in the NFC Championship game for a touchdown, and engineered a 70-yard scoring drive to start their Wild Card game against Washington.

The Chiefs meanwhile, gave up a field goal on the opening possession of the AFC Championship game, and fell behind in all three of their playoff games last season, including the Super Bowl, before rallying back to win.

Pick: Buccaneers to Score First (+100)

Gameplay Props

Prop Over Odds Under Odds
Total Yards 799.5 (-115) 799.5 (-115)
Total Pass Attempts 80.5 (-120) 80.5 (-120)
Total Pass Completions 52.5 (-125) 52.5 (-110)
Total Pass Yards 635.5 (-138) 635.5 (+100)
Total Rush Attempts 50.5 (-120) 50.5 (-120)
Total Rush Yards 190.5 (-138) 190.5 (+100)
Total First Downs 48.5 (+100) 48.5 (-138)
Total Yards of Longest Drive 84.5 (+105) 84.5 (-130)
Total Sacks 4.5 (+110) 4.5 (-137)
Total Interceptions 1.5 (+134) 1.5 (-167)
Total Turnovers 2.5 (+122) 2.5 (-155)
Total Penalties Accepted 10.5 (-138) 10.5 (+100)

One of the biggest stories leading into Sunday’s big game is Kansas City’s decimated offensive line. Andy Reid’s bunch is expected to be without its starting right tackle, left tackle and left guard which spells trouble against Tampa Bay’s ferocious defense.

No Shortage of Sacks

The Bucs ranked fourth in sacks and third in QB hits this season and will need to get to Mahomes to have any chance of slowing him down. Just one of the Chiefs projected opening week offensive line starters will suit up for this game, and now one of their centers is being forced to stay away from the team until Saturday thanks to a COVID scare.

On the other side of the ball, Chris Jones and Frank Clark should have no problems against the Bucs 16th ranked pass blocking unit, setting up the potential for big sack numbers on both sides.

Pick: Over 4.5 Sacks (+110)

Kicking Props

Prop Over Odds Under Odds
Total Made FG 3.5 (+112) 3.5 (-152)
Total Yards of Longest Made FG 47.5 (+100) 47.5 (-130)
Total Yards of Shortest Made FG 27.5 (-106) 27.5 (-118)
Total Yardage of All Made FG 125.5 (-106) 125.5 (-118)
Total Punts 6.5 (+115) 6.5 (-143)
Total Yards of Longest Punt 56.5 (-118) 56.5 (-106)
Prop Yes Odds No Odds
Either Team to Miss a FG +120 -150
Either Team to Miss an Extra Point +195 -250
Either Team Not to Punt +640 -1115
Punt Downed Inside the 5-Yard Line +330 -455

Sunday’s weather forecast in Tampa Bay calls for 40% chance of showers and 14 km/h winds with gusts up to 21 km/h. That’s enough to deter me from betting long field goal props, but that’s not the only reason.

Fade Long Field Goals

Reid and Bruce Arians are two of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL, and both teams have been very successful on 4th downs this season. KC and Tampa Bay are each converting over 62% of the time on 4th down, and in a projected shootout, neither coach is going to want to settle for field goals.

Harrison Butker has only attempted five field goals longer than 47 yards this season, while Ryan Succop has made only three that have travelled further than that number. I’m betting we don’t see them drill a long field goal on Sunday.

Pick: Total Yards of Longest Made FG Under 47.5 (-130)

First to X Points Props

Prop Chiefs Odds Buccaneers Odds Tie Odds (Neither Team Reaches)
First to 20 Points -165 +120 +2400
First to 25 Points -129 +150 +500
First to 30 points +120 +220 +180

The Chiefs have scored at least 30 points in every playoff game Patrick Mahomes has started and finished in his career, and there’s little reason to believe they won’t hit 30 points on Sunday.

Chiefs Reach 30 Points First

If you give Reid and Mahomes two weeks to prepare, offensive line issues or not, they’re going to produce points.

The Chiefs are averaging 36.6 points per game in outings following byes in the Mahomes era, including playoffs, and the only reason that number isn’t higher is because the 2018 MVP left the Divisional Round game early last month due to a concussion.

Sure, the offensive line might give up a few sacks, but Mahomes is still going to light up the scoreboard.

Pick: Chiefs First to 30 Points (+120)

Halftime / Full-Time Result Odds

Result Odds
Chiefs / Chiefs +104
Chiefs / Buccaneers +750
Chiefs / Tie +2200
Tie / Chiefs +1900
Tie / Tie +6600
Buccaneers / Buccaneers +245
Buccaneers / Chiefs +525
Buccaneers/ Tie +2400
Tie / Buccaneers +2500

The Chiefs are notorious slow starters in the playoffs. It happened three times last postseason, and again in the AFC Championship game versus Buffalo two weeks ago.

KC Starts Slow Finishes Strong

But just like in their 2019 Super Bowl run, they stormed back against the Bills outscoring them 31-6 over the second and third quarters before ultimately settling for a 38-24 victory.

We already detailed why we think the Bucs could jump out to an early lead, and they certainly have the talent on both sides of the ball to hold on until halftime. Can they stay ahead of the defending champs for the entire game? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Pick: Buccaneers-Chiefs Halftime / Full-Time Result (+525)

Winning Margin Odds

Result Odds
Chiefs to Win by 1-6 +250
Chiefs to Win by 7-12 +410
Chiefs to Win by 13-18 +650
Chiefs to Win by 19-24 +1200
Chiefs to Win by 25-30 +2400
Chiefs to Win by 31-36 +4000
Chiefs to Win by 37-42 +7500
Chiefs to Win by 43 or More +13000
Buccaneers to Win by 1-6 +330
Buccaneers to Win by 7-12 +700
Buccaneers to Win by 13-18 +1300
Buccaneers to Win by 19-24 +2400
Buccaneers to Win by 25-30 +5000
Buccaneers to Win by 31-36 +8000
Buccaneers to Win by 37-42 +15000
Buccaneers to Win by 43 or More +22500

Oddsmakers are expecting a close game, but that’s not exactly the Chiefs M.O in the postseason. They’ve won four of their past five playoff games by double-digits, and that number would likely be five-of-five if not for Mahomes’ injury against Cleveland.

In fact, KC has an average margin of victory of 13.2 points in Mahomes’ six career postseason wins, while Tampa Bay has a pair of double-digit losses on their resume this season with Brady under center.

Pick: Chiefs to Win by 13-18 (+650)

See our other Super Bowl prop articles below:

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