Super Bowl Odds Movement After Week 8 – 49ers Still Favored But Bills, Bears, Jaguars Closing Gap
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Super Bowl 61 futures shifted dramatically after Week 8. The San Francisco 49ers still lead the board but, while their price stagnated, the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Chicago Bears (second-favorite and co-third-favorites, respectively) all saw their odds shorten.
The table below sets out the current Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams, juxtaposed with their odds at this point last week.
Updated Super Bowl Odds After Week 8
Odds represent consensus lines as of Nov 3.
San Francisco remains the favorite at +580, followed by Buffalo at +600. Jacksonville and Chicago both shortened to +950. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Denver also improved from the post-Week 7 baseline, while Baltimore, Dallas, and Carolina were among the teams whose odds lengthened.
The Bills and Jaguars are notable market risers after convincing Week 8 routs: Buffalo dominated Baltimore (36-10) and Jacksonville wiped the floor with Indianapolis (42-7).
Biggest Super Bowl Risers (Week 8)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) shortened from +1200 after Week 7 to +950. The Jaguars improved to 5-2 SU and followed a strong run of form with a 42-7 win over Indianapolis in Week 8. They also entered the week with a +85 point differential (196 points scored, 111 allowed), reinforcing the market’s upward reassessment.
Jacksonville’s surge stems from dominance at the line of scrimmage, boasting the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense allowing just 77.4 yards per game alongside an offense converting 48.2% on third down. That complete complementary profile convinced oddsmakers that Jacksonville is a legitimate AFC front-runner rather than a division-level contender.
Chicago Bears
The Bears (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) moved from +1400 to +950 after a 34-17 road win over Seattle on Monday Night Football. Chicago had won three straight and covered in four of its previous five games, according to the recent-form figures. The victory pushed its season point differential to +54 and made it one of the week’s most notable market risers.
The market aggressively adjusted Chicago’s title price due to their balanced efficiency, posting 25.7 points per game behind an offense ranking near the top of the NFC in rushing (154.3 yards per game) and third-down efficiency (44.0%). Coupled with a top-five scoring defense surrendering just 87.6 rushing yards per game, the Bears have established themselves as premier NFC heavyweights.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) shortened from +700 to +600 after a 36-10 win over Baltimore. The Bills gained 435 yards and forced three takeaways, while limiting the Ravens to 167 yards. Buffalo now sits just behind San Francisco in the futures market.
The market moved Buffalo closer to championship favorite status because of their ruthless offensive firepower, averaging 33.3 points per contest with a +52 point differential. Demolishing an AFC contender in Baltimore on the road while generating three takeaways proved Buffalo’s roster is fully peaked for a deep playoff run.
Biggest Super Bowl Fallers (Week 8)
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) saw its odds lengthen sharply, from +1300 after Week 7 to +10000. The Ravens fell to 4-4 SU and last place in the AFC North after losing 36-10 to Buffalo. The Week 8 result coincided with a substantial decline in the market’s assessment of their championship chances.
The catastrophic drift in Baltimore’s futures price was driven by the loss of superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson to thumb surgery. Plunging into a three-game losing streak where they were outscored 84-33 by Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Buffalo, Baltimore’s offense lost its focal point while falling to 0-3 ATS at home with a -24 point differential.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) lengthened from +3200 to +5000, one of the clearest downward shifts among teams with a specific current price. The market faded Dallas following a crushing 33-30 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8, dropping the Cowboys to 3-5 SU and leaving them multiple games behind Philadelphia and Washington in the NFC East.
Defensive inconsistency and a failure to generate stops late in games have caused sportsbooks to price Dallas out of realistic title contention.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) moved from +5500 after Week 7 to +7000. The longer price marks a week-to-week decline. Carolina’s slide down the board followed a 27-19 home loss to Green Bay in Week 8, marking the Panthers’ second straight defeat.
Surrendering 140.7 rushing yards per contest and 27.6 points per game, Carolina’s porous run defense and negative point differential (-15) signaled to oddsmakers that the Panthers lack the defensive infrastructure needed to mount a postseason run.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
