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Buccaneers vs Saints Odds, Lines, Picks, and Predictions

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Nov 4, 2021 · 9:33 AM PDT

Tom Brady, Quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates a touchdown during a NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021 in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Menendez)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) visit the New Orleans Saints (4-2) in one of Week 8’s marquee matchups
  • 2021 Record: 3-2; +0.69 units
  • Kickoff is set for 4:25 pm EST from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans

The last time the Buccaneers and Saints faced off, a trip to the NFC Championship game was on the line as Tom Brady faced Drew Brees for the final time.

Since then, Brees has retired and Brady won his seventh ring. Not only that, but Brady is now in the thick of the NFL MVP chase and just became the first QB to throw 600 touchdown passes. While the results have been uneven, Jameis Winston has led the Saints to a 4-2 record.

Now they’ll square off for the first time in the post-Brees era. Kickoff is set for 4:25 pm ET from New Orleans.

Buccaneers vs Saints Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -225 -4.5 (-110) Ov 48.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints +185 +4.5 (-110) Un 48.5 (-110)

Odds as of October 30th at DraftKings

The Buccaneers were 5.5-point favorites earlier in the week. Tampa Bay hasn’t been great against the spread this year, going 3-4. After opening the year with three-straight overs, the under has hit in three of their last four.

New Orleans has been streaky as well, starting the season with three-straight unders, followed by two overs, and another under on Monday in Seattle. The Saints are 3-3 ATS.

NFL Public Money has brought things back down to Bucs -4.5, while the total dropped to 48.5 from Friday to Saturday.

Buccaneers vs Saints Injury Report

Tampa has battled injuries all year at various levels of their defense. In Week 7 they were without Lavonte David and Richard Sherman, but got safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back.

Offensively they’ve been missing Rob Gronkowski since Week 4, while Antonio Brown missed their beatdown of the Bears with an ankle injury.

Week 8 Injury Report

Buccaneers Injury, Status Saints Injury, Status
Richard Sherman, CB Hamstring, Questionable Andrus Peat, OL Pectoral, Out
Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB Shoulder/Hand, Questionable Dwayne Washington, RB Neck, Out
Rob Gronkowski, TE Ribs, Questionable Taysom Hill, QB Concussion, Out
Dee Delaney, CB Ankle, Questionable Payton Turner, DE Calf, Out
Lavonte David, LB Ankle, Questionable Deonte Harris, WR Hamstring, Questionable
Antonio Brown, WR Ankle, Out N/A N/A

Gronk returned to practice this week, and Richard Sherman’s status looks promising as well.

The bad news for the Saints is that Taysom Hill still isn’t practicing, and neither is Michael Thomas. Thomas still hasn’t been activated off the PUP list, so it will still be a few weeks before his 2021 debut.

Andrus Peat underwent season-ending surgery on his pectoral on Friday. That’s a massive blow to the Saints offensive line.

Buccaneers vs Saints Head-to-Head

For years it was hard to argue that the Saints had the best QB in the NFC South. Drew Brees consistently guided them to the playoffs, capping his career with four-straight division titles.

But the ‘best QB’ title was up for grabs last year when Tampa brought in Tom Brady. Now the crown resides in Tampa. But even so, the Buccaneers have struggled against the Saints, even with Brady under center.

Buccaneers vs Saints: Last Five Games

Date Away Team Home Team Result Closing Line Total
October 6, 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints 31-24 Saints Saints -3.0 46.0 (Over)
November 17, 2019 New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-17 Saints Saints -5.0 50.5 (Over)
September 13, 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints 34-23 Saints Saints -4.0 48.5 (Over)
November 8, 2020 New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-3 Saints Bucs -3.5 51.0 (Under)
January 17, 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints 30-20 Buccaneers Saints -2.5 53.0 (Under)

The loss last January actually snapped a five-game head-to-head winning streak for the Saints. In fact, before that playoff meeting New Orleans was 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

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Can Kamara Keep Saints Close?

With Thomas out, Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the Saints offense. While he’s never gone over 80 on the ground against the Bucs in the regular season, he’s frustrated them in the passing game.

AK has never recorded fewer than five catches against the Bucs, and is averaging 8.94 yards per reception.

Tampa has had trouble with running backs the last few weeks too. Khalil Herbert totaled 133 yards on 23 touches last week. In Week 6, Miles Sanders racked up 56 yards on just nine rushes, and Myles Gaskin popped off for 74 yards and two TDs on ten receptions the week before.

After force-feeding him against the Seahawks, expect a healthy does of Kamara again this week.

Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction

Tampa Bay opened with three-straight games hitting the projected over, and it’s clicked in five of seven to this point.

The Saints have gone over 48.5 once in six games, and hit 48 one other time.

New Orleans took some deep shots on Monday night and just missed a number of times. While the absence of Brown hurts, getting Gronk back bolsters the TB offense. Before the number dropped, the under was a solid play. But a two-point swing makes the over ideal.

The Pick: Over 48.5 (-110)

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