- The Houston Texans Super Bowl odds have been lengthened to +3300 thanks to the Jadeveon Clowney trade rumours
- The trade speculation stems from the inability to reach a long term contract
- Are the Texans worth betting at their new price?
The Houston Texans are playing hardball with Jadeveon Clowney. They placed the franchise tag on him in March, and while they’d like to sign him to a long term deal, they’re refusing to cave to his expensive contract demands.
— Bob Slovak (@BobSlovak13) May 21, 2019
The two side are reportedly far apart on a new deal which has fuelled trade speculation and lengthened the Texans’ Super Bowl Odds. Houston is now +3300 to win the Lombardi Trophy, which is tied for the longest odds among playoff teams from a season ago.
2019 Super Bowl Odds
|Team||Odds at Bovada|
|New England Patriots||+700|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+800|
|New Orleans Saints||+900|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1100|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+1600|
|Green Bay Packers||+1800|
*Odds taken 05/24/19
What’s Holding Up Negotiations?
Clowney is reportedly seeking a long term deal that pays him like the other elite pass rushers in the game. While it would be foolish for him to demand the type of money Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald received, it’s believed he’s seeking something comparable to the 5-year, $100 million contracts Frank Clark and DeMarcus Lawrence signed.
Jadeveon Clowney beating Tyron Smith is like if two mountains became sentient. pic.twitter.com/A6WrMpFMsu
— Cian (@Cianaf) March 17, 2019
The Texans are reportedly not willing to go that high right now, despite having roughly $41 million available in cap space, and are offering a salary more in line with what an elite linebacker would make as opposed to an elite edge rusher.
Is Clowney Worth his Asking Price?
The former number one pick has had a solid but not spectacular 5-year career so far. He’s a three-time Pro Bowler, but he’s never reached double digit sacks in a season, and he’s been a far more effective run defender than pass rusher.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 28, 2019
Despite playing on the same defensive line as one of the best pass rushers of this generation in JJ Watt, Clowney finished outside the top-17 in pressures last season, and outside the top-10 in QB hurries and hits. He had fewer sacks and pressures than both Clark and Lawrence, despite playing 170 more snaps, and he finished outside the top-15 in Pro Football Focus’ pass rushing metrics for the fifth straight year.
Simply put, Clowney is an incredible athlete but his production doesn’t warrant a nine-figure contract, and his presence shouldn’t have a huge impact on Houston’s Super Bowl prospects. If they do trade him, they should be able to find an adequate replacement, but whether he’s on the team or not, they don’t deserve to be mentioned in the same conversation as the other Super Bowl favorites.
Fade the Texans, Find Value with the Falcons
The Texans are no longer the best team in their division – that title belongs to the Colts – and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league in 2019. They face the loaded NFC South and will square off with five AFC playoff teams from 2018. Instead of trying to buy low on Houston, consider the Falcons’ Super Bowl chances instead.
What are the expectations for the @AtlantaFalcons in 2019?
With players getting healthy, they continue to grow 👇
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) May 24, 2019
Injuries derailed them last season, but when healthy this is one of the most dangerous teams in the league. They solidified their offensive line by drafting a guard and a tackle in the first round, and the return of Devonta Freeman on offense and Deion Jones and Keanu Neal on defense will make them a threat once again.
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