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The Total in Broncos Games Went Under an NFL-High 12 Times Last Year; Is 43 Too Many Points in Week 1?

Joe Flacco and Drew Lock
Will Joe Flacco help deliver the over? The Denver Broncos went under the total an NFL-high 12 times during the 2018 season. Photo from @MileHighHuddle (Twitter).
  • The Denver Broncos went under the total an NFL-high 12 times during the 2018 season
  • The total for Monday’s Broncos-Raiders games is set at 43 points
  • The total has gone under in five of the last seven Denver at Oakland games

The Denver Broncos are going under.

No, the franchise isn’t folding. That’s just the way the Broncos play the game.

Last season, the Broncos were the kings of the under in the NFL. Denver went under the total a league-leading 12 times.

Oddsmakers have set the total for this week’s game at 43 in the Broncos vs Raiders full odds.

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders Total Odds

Total Over Odds Under Odds
43.0 -109 -109

*Odds taken 9/08/19.

The total has gone under in five of Denver’s last seven games at Oakland.

Broncos Bucking for the Under

Denver may be known as the Mile High City but in NFL circles, the Broncos are known as the mile under squad.

The total has gone under in nine of Denver’s last nine games. The total has gone under in five of Denver’s last five road games.

Both of last seasons Broncos-Raiders games went under. In fact, the total has gone under in the past five games between Denver and Oakland.

The Raiders made a good pairing with the Broncos when it comes to going under the total. Oakland has gone under in 13 of its last 20 games. The total has also gone under in seven of Oakland’s last 10 home games.

Denver has scored 20 points just once in its last four visits to Oakland.

Keeping it on the Down Low

Denver averaged 20.6 points per game last season, 24th overall in the NFL. The Raiders were even worse. They averaged 18.1 points per game. That was 28th overall in the league.

Over the past two seasons, both the Raiders and Broncos are 11-20-1 in total wagering. That’s an average of 64.5% of their games going under.

Only the Chicago Bears (12-22-0, 64.7%) saw more games go under since 2017 than these two teams.

When Denver Rises to the Occasion

Denver’s three over performances last season all came during the first seven weeks of the season, according to the sports betting data.

The Broncos opened with a 27-24 home-field win over the Seattle Seahawks. The total for that game was 42.5. It was the eighth time in 11 Seattle vs Denver contests that the total had gone over.

2018 Denver Broncos Games That Went Over

Opponent Total Final Score
Seattle Seahawks 42.5 Broncos 27 Seahawks 24
New York Jets 43.0 Jets 34 Broncos 16
Arizona Cardinals 42.5 Broncos 45 Cardinals 10

In Week 5, the Broncos traveled to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets. That day, Denver absorbed a 34-16 beating. The total for that game was 43 points.

Again, though, the trend was to go over. It was the sixth time in seven road trips to face the Jets that the total went over.

Two weeks later, the Broncos hit the road to face the woeful Arizona Cardinals. It was all Denver that day. The Broncos blasted the Cardinals 45-10, easily bettering the total of 42.5 points.

It was the 11th time in Denver’s last 15 games against NFC West opposition that the total had gone over. It was also the eighth time in the last eight Cardinals-Broncos games that the over was the winning wager.

In Week 8, the Broncos lost 30-23 to the Kansas City Chiefs. The total was 53, so that game ended in a push.

No Brown Brings the Total Down

The departure from the Raiders of wide receiver Antonio Brown, who caught 15 touchdown passes last season with Pittsburgh, further reduces the point-producing potential of this game.

Based on Denver’s recent history, this one figures to go under.

Pick: Under 43 (-109).

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