Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 14 Jaguars vs Titans

• A “classic” AFC South battle returns to TNF in Week 14. 
• The Tennessee Titans still have playoff aspirations while the Jacksonville Jaguars are … starting Cody Kessler.
• Get the best props to bet in what should be a low-scoring game. 

The Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup is the annual Jaguars (4-8) vs Titans (6-6) primetime affair (Dec. 6th, 8:20 PM ET).

Last week’s props went just 1/3 putting me back in the red for the season at -$153.77.  There’s not much time left to make up that ground, so this week’s picks better start the comeback!

On the Titans’ side, the story heading into Week 14 is that Tennessee kept its playoff hopes alive with a thoroughly unimpressive 26-22 comeback win over the Jets last Sunday. On the Jaguars’ side, attention is focused on the fact that we are heading into week two of the Cody Kessler era. Kessler’s salvo as starter resulted in his first career win, but it’s hard to get too excited about a 150-yard, zero-TD performance.

Kessler’s limitations factor into the last prop for this week. The first, however, puts his counterpart center stage.

Prop #1: Mariota Under 0.5 Interceptions

Mariota has thrown seven INTs in 12 games, but only two in the last five weeks and only two in four home games to date. (He missed Week 2 vs Houston.) He also played a clean game when these teams tangled in Jacksonville in Week 3 (a 9-6 Tennessee win). 

The Jaguars’ D is tied for 20th in interceptions with nine through 12 games. This unit hasn’t played at its 2017 level this year (last week’s 6-0 shutout win over the Colts notwithstanding).

Sure, Jacksonville has a great, very talented defense.

But let’s stop with this notion that Reich should have expected not to score. Bills (2) and Texans (4) rank higher in defensive DVOA than Jaguars (7), and Colts scored 37 & 34 against them (and 29 vs JAX the first time).

— Josh Wilson (@JoshWilsonSB) December 2, 2018

With Cody Kessler under center for the Jaguars, Mike Vrabel will be keenly aware that Jacksonville’s best chance of pulling an upset is by getting defensive scores. Expect a safe, run-heavy game plan from the Titans, much like their approach in Week 3 when Mariota attempted just 18 passes. There is solid value on the under at +150 (40% implied probability).

Prop #2: Over 3.5 Field Goals

The Titans and Jags combined for five field goals in their Week 3 meeting, a game in which neither team found the end zone. With Cody Kessler at QB, you can count on a similarly anemic offensive performance from Jacksonville. In his first start of the year in Week 13, the Jags mustered just six points on two Josh Lambo FGs.

For the year, Lambo has 19 FG on 21 attempts (90.5%). His counterpart, Ryan Succop, is 21/24 (87.5%). Combined, that only adds up to 40 FGs in 12 games, which is a 3.33 FG/game average.

Tennessee’s five home games this year have seen an average of 3.6 FG/game. That includes seven last week [vs the Jets].

But these are two solid defenses that often limit opponents to FG attempts. Both defenses are tied for 6th in most FGs surrendered (21 each). That adds up to 42 in 12 games, which is right at the 3.5/game average we need to find value on this prop. Additionally, Tennessee’s five home games this year have seen an average of 3.6 FG/game. That includes seven last week when the Jets were in town (26-22 Titans).

Prop #3: Titans to Score the Longest Touchdown

The Titans have four players with a reception of at least 50 yards this season. The Jaguars have two of their own (Donte Moncrief and Dede Westbrook), but they also have a QB who has never completed a pass longer than 44 yards in his entire career. 

Kessler has a respectable 65.6% completion percentage for his career precisely because he makes safe, short throws.

Mariota, meanwhile, has three completions of 48-plus-yards in just the last two games.

Looking at the running backs, the longest rush by both TJ Yeldon and Leonard Fournette this year is just 20 yards. Dion Lewis has a long of 36. And don’t forget about Mariota’s legs; the QB has a rush of at least 20 yards in three games this year. He’s found the end zone twice as a runner this year and had five rushing TDs last year, including a 34-yarder.

Kessler’s longest career rush is 11 yards and he has never scored a TD on the ground.

Given the significant possibility that the Jaguars don’t score a touchdown period, laying -155 (60.8% implied probability) on Tennessee is fine by me.