Top Player-Prop Picks for Dolphins vs Vikings on Oct 4
By Michael Schwartz in NFL News
Published:
Week 4 features an intriguing interconference matchup as the Miami Dolphins visit the Minnesota Vikings this afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium, with the game airing on FOX.
For bettors, this matchup offers appealing opportunities in the NFL props markets. This article breaks down key metrics to help identify value in player props.
Player Markets: Dolphins vs. Vikings
Kyler Murray’s passing line remains steady, backed by a Minnesota offense averaging 23.6 points and generating 154 passing yards per game this season.
By contrast, Malik Willis’ lower line reflects Miami’s offensive struggles. The Dolphins average 12.0 points per game and have a 28.6% red-zone efficiency rate.
Miami’s backfield totals have seen notable movement. Jaylen Wright’s rushing-yards line has risen from an opening number of 23.5, while Ollie Gordon’s line has dropped from 29.5 to 24.5.
In Minnesota, the NFL receiving yards props show Jordan Addison’s line climbing from 55.5 to 62.5 yards. Miami’s Malik Washington has also moved up, from 36.5 to 39.5 receiving yards.
The NFL TD scorer odds are led by Aaron Jones Sr. The running back’s odds reflect Minnesota’s 80.0% red-zone efficiency rate.
Most of the other options in this market have also seen adjustments. Jordan Addison is close behind among the home team’s projected scorers. For Miami, Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright have the shortest odds to score a touchdown.
Player Betting Trends: Dolphins vs. Vikings
- Kyler Murray (MIN): Murray has gone over 28.5 pass attempts in five of his last six games against opponents with losing records, averaging 30.3 attempts per game.
- Malik Willis (MIA): Willis has gone over 5.5 rushing attempts in four of his last five games, averaging 7.2 carries per game.
- Aaron Jones Sr (MIN): Jones has stayed under 88.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in 14 of his last 18 games, averaging 66.4 combined yards per game.
- Ollie Gordon (MIA): Gordon has stayed under 33.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine games as an underdog, averaging 8.7 combined yards per game.
- Jauan Jennings (MIN): Jennings has gone over 26.5 receiving yards in 12 of his last 15 games, averaging 38.4 receiving yards per game.
- Jordan Addison (MIN): Addison has stayed under 51.5 receiving yards in five of his last six home games, averaging 20.8 receiving yards per game.
- Malik Washington (MIA): Washington has stayed under 4.5 receptions in nine of his last 10 games as an underdog, averaging 2.7 catches per game.
- T.J. Hockenson (MIN): Hockenson has stayed under 33.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games, averaging 19.5 receiving yards per game.
Best Player Prop Picks for Dolphins vs. Vikings
Historical trends provide a useful framework for finding value in the player prop market. Here are the top picks based on playing volume and situational history.
Pick 1: Jauan Jennings 25+ Receiving Yards (-117 at Kalshi)
Jauan Jennings has a consistent role in Minnesota’s passing attack, particularly when the defense focuses its attention on other receivers. His yardage line is a relatively low threshold given his track record.
- The trend: Jennings has gone over 25 receiving yards in 12 of his last 15 games, averaging 38.4 receiving yards per game.
That 80.0% hit rate supports backing his total. Minnesota’s passing attack has averaged just 154 yards through the air per game this season, but with Justin Jefferson ruled out for this game, there will be plenty of potential volume for Jennings to reach the mark.
Pick 2: Ollie Gordon Under 34.5 Rush+Rec. Yards (-114 at BetMGM)
Miami’s offense has struggled, averaging just 12.0 points per game. That limited scoring environment could affect Gordon’s combined workload when the Dolphins are underdogs.
- The trend: Gordon has stayed under 33.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine games as an underdog, averaging 8.7 combined yards per game.
With an 88.9% hit rate in this situation, the under 34.5 pick offers an extra yard of cushion over the threshold in the trend.
Pick 3: Aaron Jones Sr Anytime TD (-133 / 57¢ at Polymarket)
The touchdown market gives the Vikings running back a favorable implied probability. His role near the goal line is supported by the home offense’s pace.
Minnesota has an 80.0% red-zone efficiency rate. That figure points to opportunities for direct rushing attempts when the Vikings reach the opponent’s 20-yard line. At -138, the price represents value compared with other options in the game.
Injury Report: Impact on Betting
Justin Jefferson’s ankle injury stands out for player prop bettors. Since he is inactive, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings will take on a large share of the targets from Kyler Murray.
In the backfield, Aaron Jones Sr’s limited participation suggests a potential rest day. DeeJay Dallas is positioned to step in if Jones’ workload is restricted during the game. For Miami, potential absences among the outside receivers complicate the outlook for Malik Willis’ passing game.
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Moneyline: Vikings -588 / Dolphins +450
- Spread: Vikings -10.5 (-108) / Dolphins +10.5 (-111)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 38.5 (-111) / Under 38.5 (-108)
Odds provided by BetMGM.
The NFL odds make the Vikings 10.5-point favorites. The moneyline reflects the gap, with Minnesota at -588 and Miami at +450.
The projected total of 38.5 points points to a comfortable home-team win combined with continued offensive struggles for the visitors.
