Touchdown Odds, Picks & Player Props for Packers/Patriots (Week 9)

• Packers vs Patriots has been one of the marquee matchups in the NFL over the last 20 years
• I’m focusing on the Anytime TD market for this Week 9 contest, targeting names such as Rhamondre Stevenson and Tucker Kraft
• Read on to find my Packers vs Patriots prediction and anytime TD picks for Sunday’s game

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Prop bettors face an intriguing slate as the Green Bay Packers travel to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots on November 08, 2026, at 04:25 PM ET on FOX. Operating with a full-game total of 44.5 points, New England must adjust their offensive approach with receiver AJ Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson ruled out.

This forces Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson to shoulder the offensive load against a Packers defense missing Micah Parsons. Conversely, Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs will drive the Green Bay attack. The top player prop picks follow immediately below.

Packers vs Patriots Touchdown Odds

All touchdown odds from Kalshi on Nov. 8 with equivalent American odds in parentheses. Use SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code to get a bonus during signup.

Packers vs Patriots Player-Prop Picks

Finding value in this matchup requires trusting reliable statistical baselines and exploiting mispriced lines. By isolating specific usage trends and matchup data, bettors can filter out the noise. Here are the most mathematically sound player prop picks for Sunday.

Pick #1: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (+100 at Kalshi)

Bettors should capitalize on the adjusted backfield hierarchy for New England. With TreVeyon Henderson (illness) ruled out, Stevenson absorbs the primary red zone workload and early-down snap share. He now drives the rushing attack against a Green Bay defensive front missing Micah Parsons. Given his projected volume increase and critical goal-line responsibilities, backing Stevenson to find the end zone offers genuine value at this price point.

With Henderson sidelined, Stevenson’s red-zone workload becomes virtually absolute, elevating his expected market touch share inside the 20 to over 85%. Green Bay’s defensive front severely misses Micah Parsons’ run-fitting ability off the edge, allowing 4.7 yards per carry and yielding six rushing scores over their past four games. Operating behind an offensive line generating 2.8 yards before contact and handling all goal-to-go rushing attempts, getting +100 on Stevenson to plunge into the end zone provides elite mathematical expected value.

Pick #2: Tucker Kraft Over 45+ Receiving Yards (-122, Novig)

The primary tight end for Green Bay offers strong value against a New England defense surrendering 217.3 passing yards per game. Kraft has cleared 45.5 receiving yards in at least four of his last five games against opponents with a winning record, boasting a 78.8 receiving yards per game average in that span. With Jordan Love distributing the football at an efficient clip, this recent production provides a comfortable cushion above the posted yardage total.

Kraft’s high-leverage deployment is rock-solid, logging an 81.4% route participation rate and leading Green Bay with 6.8 yards after the catch per reception. New England’s defense employs heavy middle-field closed coverage shells that funnel targets directly between the numbers, where the Patriots surrender 59.2 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. Given Kraft’s ability to turn routine seam passes and shallow crossing routes into chunk gains, his target floor provides an exceptionally reliable path to clear 44 yards.

Pick #3: DeMario Douglas Under 3.5 Receptions (+100, BetMGM)

While perimeter injuries might suggest an expanded target share for Douglas, historical usage points heavily toward the under. Fading his reception total is a sound mathematical play at even money. He has failed to exceed 3.5 receptions in six of his eight games this season, logging a marginal 2.4 receptions per game average. Green Bay allows just 204.0 passing yards per game, limiting overall passing volume and capping his realistic ceiling.

Douglas remains heavily confined to a situational slot role where he averages an extremely shallow 6.1-yard depth of target and rarely stays on the field for two-tight-end running packages. Green Bay’s nickel secondary ranks top-eight in pass defense success rate against interior slot options, allowing a stingy 64.5% catch rate. With New England likely prioritizing a heavy rushing attack to control time of possession, Douglas simply does not command the snap or target volume necessary to secure four receptions at even money.