- Rookie Tua Tagovailoa has been named the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback, replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick
- The over/under on Tagovailoa’s regular season passing yardage total is 1,999 and touchdown passes is 11.5
- An analysis of Tagovailoa’s situation with the Dolphins along with wagering advice can be found below
The Miami Dolphins have decided the future is now for Tua Tagovailoa.
On Wednesday, coach Brian Flores confirmed that the rookie will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback.
The move comes as a bit of a surprise. The Dolphins have won their last two game to improve to 3-3 and move within one game of the first-place Buffalo Bills (4-2) in the AFC East.
The oddsmakers have wasted little time in setting over/unders on Tagovailoa’s regular-season passing yards and touchdowns. as well as which receiver will catch his first TD pass.
2020 Tua Tagovailoa Passing Props
|Passing Yardage||1,999 (O -112 | U -112)|
|Passing Touchdowns||11.5 (O -112 | U -112)|
Odds as of Oct. 21 from FanDuel.
Tua Needs to Average 200 Yards Per Game
Tagovailoa made his NFL debut this past Sunday in mop-up duty at the end of the Dolphins’ 24-0 victory over the New York Jets.
The fifth-overall pick in this year’s NFL draft completed both passes for nine yards. He played five snaps.
An unbiased breakdown of Tua Tagovailoa’s NFL debut. pic.twitter.com/RkZRWdHqlH
— Will Manso (@WillManso) October 18, 2020
The total on Tagovailoa’s passing yardage has been set at 1,999.5. Thus, the left-handed thrower will need to average 199.1 yards a game over the final ten regular-season contests to go over the total.
Fitzpatrick passed for 1,535 yards in six games before losing his job.
That works out to a 255.8-yard average. If Tagovailoa can match that kind of Fitz Magic then he will beat the over.
The Dolphins are right in the middle of the league in passing yardage, ranking 16th among the 32 teams with their average of 249.2 a game. They are 12th with 7.5 yards per attempt.
Who Will Catch No. 1?
The oddsmakers have put a total of 11.5 on Tagovailoa’s touchdown passes.
The former Alabama star will need to average 1.2 a game to beat the over. Fitzpatrick averaged 1.7 with a total of 10.
It remains to been seen which receivers will build a quick connection with Tagovailoa. Davante Parker is listed as the favorite to catch the rookie’s first touchdown pass.
Tua Tagovailoa’s First TD Receiver Odds
Odds as of Oct. 21 at FanDuel.
Parker is not necessarily a fantasy football favorite, though.
Davante Parker: 3 catches, 35 yards against a weak Jets D for 6.5 points.
Deebo Samuel: 2 catches, 41 yards and a touchdown just 3 minutes into the game against a stingy Rams D. Just came back from injury. Has 12 points.
I started Davante. This is why I have trust issues.
— El Niño 🐍 (@jedtalkssports) October 19, 2020
Parker was on the receiving end of two touchdown passes from Fitzpatrick. Parker leads the team with 29 receptions for 364 yards.
Fitzpatrick spread the touchdown passes around over the season’s first six weeks. Preston Williams had three and tight ends Mike Gesicki and Adam Shaheen have two each.
Fitzpatrick had TD passes in four of the six games. The first one in each of the last two games went to Shaheen after Parker and Williams had one each.
Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey also has got Shaheen more involved in the offense against the Jets. Shaheen had three catches for 51 yards after being targeted just twice in the first five games of the season.
the american dream adam shaheen pic.twitter.com/szx83OIL0k
— josh houtz (@houtz) October 18, 2020
For what it is worth with such a small sample size, Tagovailoa’s two passes against the Jets went to running back Patrick Laird and Jakeem Grant.
Grant has 13 receptions this season and Laird has three. Neither has scored a touchdown.
Big College Stats
Tagovailoa put up big numbers at Alabama, passing for 7,442 yards and 87 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions in 32 career games.
While college stats do not necessarily translate to the pros and Tagovailoa is taking over a middling offense, he seems capable of beating the over in both yardage and TDs.
As far as the receiver of Tagovailoa’s first touchdown pass, it seem like a good bet to ride the hot hand with Shaheen at the tempting price of +2200.
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