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Upset Picks for Week 4 in NFL: A Pair of Cats Make for Enticing Road Dogs

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Sep 28, 2019 · 8:27 AM PDT

Gardner Minshew and his moustache are taking the NFL by storm
Gardner Minshew is already on the rise, but can he handle the altitude in Denver this week as his Jags are underdogs against the lowly Broncos? Photo from @BigCatCountry (Twitter).
  • Gardner Minshew will try and get the Jags back to .500 against a desperate Broncos team
  • Despite three close games, none of our dogs could pull out a moneyline win last week, costing us 3 units
  • Get the odds, our upset picks, and all the info you need to bet the games below

Every cartoon I watched growing up warned about the dangers of greed, but clearly the message sailed over my head. Had we just played the spread, last week’s underdogs would’ve gone 3-0, instead of the reverse.

Still, I continue to learn zero lessons, because looking at the NFL’s Week 4 odds, there’s a few more dogs I want to chase on the moneyline.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +145
Denver Broncos -3 -180

*Odds taken 9/27/19

Things are not looking good for Vic Fangio after three weeks. Brought in to help an already pretty stout defense, Denver has yet to generate a sack or takeaway this season. And it looks to be getting worse.

The good news is, Broncos fans will get to see what a real pass rush looks like this week when the Jaguars come to town. Jacksonville ranks number one in the league in adjusted sack rate. Denver’s O-line is 26th in that category. Garret Bolles better hold on for dear life. (He will).

Points are going to be hard to come by for Denver, so even if you aren’t drinking the Gardner Minshew Kool-Aid (you should try it, it’s tobacco flavored), Sacksonville is a strong play here.

Pick: 1.75 units on Jacksonville moneyline (+145)

Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Carolina Panthers +4 +180
Houston Texans -4 -210

*Odds taken 9/27/19

Betting on or against the Houston moneyline means no matter what, your bet will have a shot in the final two minutes of the game. The Texans suffered a brutal loss in Week 1 on a 58-yard field goal, but pulled out wins on a bad Doug Marrone two-point conversion call and an even worse Travis Benjamin drop.

Houston, while endlessly entertaining and never out of a game, is also a bad bet at home. They’re 7-11 ATS at NRG Stadium since drafting Deshaun Watson.

Coming into town with a quarterback that is healthy enough to step into a throw, the Carolina Panthers look like a tough out again. Granted, Arizona’s D is objectively brutal, but Kyle Allen was able to get these Panthers playmakers the ball in space and let them work.

Houston’s defense is nothing special this year, while the Panthers have been strong against the pass. Exploiting Carolina on the ground would look to be the way to go this week, but the Texans ground game is suddenly MIA.

In a league where newcomers at QB are making magic (see Daniel Jones), I’ll roll with another one here, albeit less confidently.

Pick: 1 unit on Panthers moneyline (+180)

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