NFL Week 1 Player Prop Picks – Exploiting Overreactions for 3 Players

• Trying to handicap Week 1 of the NFL season can be difficult, especially player props, since you are doing so relatively blindly
• Sportsbooks have released player props for every game in Week 1 and there are some big assumptions they are making related to player movement
• See the players I believe the sportsbooks are sleeping on, or have adjusted too much based on offseason changes

We made it! It’s finally here!! Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is upon us and it offers a fantastic slate of games, stretching from the September 9 kickoff in Seattle to a very intriguing September 14 matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. The schedule also features a unique international spot, with the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams meeting at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday night. We have player props available for all 16 games, and the board is mathematically ripe with exploitable opportunities.

When it comes to betting player props, I attempt to put on a quantitative analyst hat and build my edge by identifying exactly where sportsbooks lag or overreact. Sportsbooks are forced into a bit of a guessing game in Week 1, either anchoring player lines to the averages from last season, or trying to adjust based on offseason moves – pricing the players based off roles they held then or trying to guess what role they will hold now.

I am isolating three pass-catchers who I believe the sportsbooks have gotten wrong in Week 1, and, of course, I have brought data to support my opinion.

NFL Player Prop Picks

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One of these three players moved to a new team this offseason, while the other two are dealing with target competition in the form of newcomers or players returning from injury. I dive into why I like each of these below.

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Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals – Over 41.5 Receiving Yards

I understand why sportsbooks are setting Michael Wilson’s receiving total at 41.5 for Week 1. Wilson did not breakout last season until Marvin Harrison Jr got hurt, and his numbers did take a step back in the one game MHJ started and played more than 51% of the snaps (Week 13). So, they’re basing his line off of how he performed over the first half of the season with MHJ in the lineup.

However, Wilson really took advantage of the opportunity he received over the second half of the season, averaging 96.9 receiving yards per game and eclipsing 100 yards in three of eight games.

Yes, MHJ is healthy heading into the Cardinals’ Week 1 matchup with the Chargers. Yes, Trey McBride is also around, and he led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards last season. But Arizona also just gave Wilson a three-year, $75M extension a week ago. That’s not the type of money you give a player who’s going to take a backseat.

There is a very real chance Wilson is the WR1 in Arizona, and I believe they will benefit from Jacoby Brissett having a full offseason to prepare as the starting QB. Admittedly, Nathaniel Hackett calling the plays leaves me a bit unsettled, but the Cardinals being upwards of 10-point underdogs points to some extra targets to be had on Sunday.

You can find his line as low as 39.5 at DraftKings with -110 odds, but I’m also comfortable betting him at 50+ receiving yards.

Isaiah Likely, TE, New York Giants – Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

Of the three lines I am isolating, this is the only where I believe sportsbooks have underreacted to offseason movement – I suppose you could say they’re overreacting to how run-heavy the Giants project to be. Likely spent the 2025 season as the Ravens backup TE, only playing more than 60.5% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps in two games. He went over 34.5 receiving yards in just two of 14 games, as Mark Andrews led the TE room in targets in 10 of the 14 games they played together, with them tying in two of them as well.

Likely has now followed John Harbaugh to New York, signing a three-year, $40M contract with the Giants. He is the undisputed #1 TE with Theo Johnson listed behind him on the depth chart. But Likely might also be the #1 receiver in New York’s Week 1 matchup with the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Malik Nabers is returning from a significant ACL and meniscus tear, and may not be back to full speed right away. Jaxson Dart’s other starting receivers include rookie Malachi Fields and journeyman Darnell Mooney.

In the ten career games Likely has played without Andrews in the lineup, his receiving yards per game goes from 21.7 (with Andrews in lineup) to 48.7, while his targets nearly double as well (2.7 to 5.0). I believe Likely will seize the heightened opportunity with his new team.

I’m comfortable taking Likely for 40+ receiving yards at +120 odds with bet365. Use our links to claim the best bonus when signing up if you’re not already registered with their sportsbook.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos – Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

One of the more notable trades from the offseason saw the Broncos send the Dolphins a first-round pick in exchange for Jaylen Waddle. The Alabama product projects to take over the WR1 spot this season, providing the offense with a level of speed and route-running they have been missing since Sean Payton took over as head coach.

However, I don’t believe this means Courtland Sutton fades away to the degree his receiving yards over/under suggests. Sutton led the team in receiving yards in 12 of their 17 games last season, and he remains their best jump-ball and red zone threat. Not to mention, Waddle will likely draw the opposition’s top corner, or at least be their primary focus in the passing game, which will free Sutton up with better matchups and less attention being paid.

The other notable factor here is that Bo Nix struggled over the first few weeks of the 2025 season. When things started to click a little better for Nix, which came in a Week 4 beatdown of the Bengals, the offense was able to support two receivers more often than not. Across those 15 games, which includes the lone playoff game Nix played in before breaking his ankle, Denver’s second-leading receiver totaled 45+ receiving yards in eight of them.

The Broncos have raved about how much Nix has improved this summer, specifically throwing the deep ball, as well as the strong relationship he has with new play-caller Davis Webb.

I think this is an over-adjustment to the Waddle addition by the sportsbooks, and Sutton clears this number with ease against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.