NFL Week 1 Trends to Know Before Betting
- In NFL Week 1 betting trends, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff is Mr Perfect. He’s 6-0 ATS in season openers
- Last season, NFL road teams went 9-6-1 straight up during Week 1
- The trend was showing offense being slow to develop. The under hit in 11 of 16 NFL openers in 2022
When it comes to NFL Week 1 trends and sure things, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff probably isn’t the first name that comes to mind. When Week 1 of the NFL regular season is trending, Goff absolutely should be on the top of your list and at the forefront of your mind.
The Lions QB is going into Thursday’s game against the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs with a perfect 6-0 against the spread record in season openers.
Seeking out other NFL Week 1 betting trends, looking back to last season, it was a good time to be wagering on road teams and counting on sturdy defenses.
Let’s look deeper into the betting trends that you should be aware of prior to placing any Week 1 NFL bets.
BET $5 ON NFL & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY! BET $5 & GET $150 IF YOUR BET WINS! GET UP TO $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS! BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS! GET UP TO $1,000 BACK - ON CAESARS!
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
While Goff remains perfect ATS in Week 1 starts, when it comes to straight up outcomes, his trends have changed since he’s donned the Honolulu blue and silver of the Lions. Goff was 4-0 SU and ATS as QB1 for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 of the NFL season.
With the Lions, it’s true he’s preserved his perfect ATS slate. However, Goff is 0-2 SU in Week 1 as Detroit’s starter. And his status as Mr Perfect Week 1 ATS QB is about to get the biggest test of his career.
Best QBs (active) against the spread in Week 1:
Jared Goff 6-0 ATS
Derek Carr 6-3 ATS
Patrick Mahomes 4-1 ATS
Aaron Rodgers 9-6 ATS
Lamar Jackson 3-1 ATS
Josh Allen 3-1 ATS
Justin Herbert 2-0 ATS
Tua Tagovailoa 2-0 ATS pic.twitter.com/IS4XCA7DP9— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 6, 2023
His opposite number for Week 1 also trends well for openers. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in Week 1 starts. Andy Reid is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in 10 season openers as Kansas City’s head coach.
Up until a year ago, Goff’s old boss, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, was also the picture of perfection in Week 1. He was 5-0 SU and ATS. Then the Buffalo Bills came to LA and put a 31-10 whipping on the Rams in the season opener.
Offensive Trends Are Underwhelming In Week 1
If you’re wondering how to bet on NFL games in the first week of the season, the trends showing on the scoreboard indicate that NFL offenses are going under at an overwhelming pace. During Week 1 of the 2022 campaign, the under was the winning play in 11 of 16 games. That’s a 68.75% rate for going under.
During the past two seasons, the under has ruled over Week 1 games. In 2021, the under hit in nine of 16 games. Interestingly, two exceptions to this under rule are playing each other in Week 1. The Lions and Chiefs have both gone over in each of their openers the past two seasons.
What Is the Best NFL Betting Strategy?
The 2022 NFL season displayed some ongoing trends in that it carried on patterns that have been evident in NFL betting for a number of years now. Playing away from home is a good place to be in season openers. So is not being the favorite.
Last year, road teams were 9-6-1 straight up in Week 1 action. Underdogs were 6-9-1 SU and 8-8 ATS. Away favorites were 3-6-1 SU and 5-5 ATS . Away underdogs were 3-3 both SU and ATS. According to research compiled by FOX Sports, since 2000, underdogs are 183-163-14 (53%) ATS in Week 1.
2022 NFL Week 1 Underdog Trends
| Scenario | Straight Up | ATS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Underdogs | 6-9-1 | 8-8 |
| Home Underdogs | 3-6-1 | 5-5 |
| Away Underdogs | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| 5+ Point Underdogs | 3-4-1 | 6-2 |
In fact, if you carry that study back to the beginning of the Super Bowl era, the dogs continue to bark at virtually the same rate. They’ve covered the spread at a 52% ratio (410-378-25) in every Week 1 since 1966.
The bigger the spread, the better the bet comes through on the underdog. Dogs of five or more points went 6-2 ATS in Week 1 last season. That’s a 75% win rate. If you’re new to betting on football this season and need some tips on NFL spread betting explained, we have you covered.
TRENDING…NFL Version
Since the start of 2012, home dogs in divisional matchups Week 1 are 15-2-1 ATS (88%) & 10-6-2 SU (61%)
The 4 home underdogs in divisional matchups this week are the most in any season since 2010 (6)
(via @CBSSportsHQ )
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) September 6, 2023
In Week 1, the largest spread is showing the Baltimore Ravens as a 10-point pick over the Houston Texans. Last season, the Texans were a double-digit underdog five times. Houston was 4-1 ATS in those games.
Betting against the losing team in last year’s Super Bowl is also sound strategy in Week 1 NFL betting trends. Over the past 23 seasons, the losing finalist in the Super Bowl is 4-19 ATS when debuting the following season. Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals lost 23-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 6.5-point home favorites.
This season, the Philadelphia Eagles, losers to the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, are the 4-point road chalk at the New England Patriots.
Now armed with those NFL Week 1 trends, be sure to clalim one of the top football betting promo codes to boost your bankroll for a for full weekend of NFL betting action.
BET $5 ON CFB & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY! BET $5 & GET $150 IF YOUR BET WINS! GET UP TO $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS! GET UP TO $1,000 BACK - ON CAESARS!
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
