NFL Week 1 Upset Picks – Texans Spoil Trevor Lawrence’s Debut

• Trevor Lawrence makes his first start against the Houston Texans. Should his Jacksonville Jaguars be favored?
• The Las Vegas Raiders are poised to capitalize on an already banged up Baltimore Ravens team
• Follow along all season, as we wager 3 units a week on underdogs to win outright

Breathe easy folks, our weekly NFL upset picks are back for their third season! Entering year three is a particularly special milestone, as it means these picks have outlasted the tenure of NFL coaching luminaries like Greg Schiano, Ben McAdoo, Marc Trestman and Adam Gase (his Jets tenure anyway). Unlike those coaches, we actually saw some success last season, finishing +9.32 units ahead through the divisional round of the playoffs.

Turning our attention to this NFL season’s  Week 1 odds, there’s a lot to like in this slate, especially after we almost saw an eight-point underdog win outright on opening night. But we won’t be chasing any huge upsets out of the gate. With almost half this week’s spreads set at a field goal or less, here’s a couple smaller plays I like, starting with a game you almost definitely won’t be watching, as it could rank as one of the worst of the whole 2021 season.

NFL Week 1 Upset Picks

Odds taken Sept. 10 from DraftKings and FanDuel

The Muck and The Meyer

The entire NFL anticipated that the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars would be a bottom-of-the-barrel team … and they were! But not before a shocking Week 1 upset over the Colts at home that temporarily threw bettors off their scent. The Jags promptly went on to lose 15 straight. That feels relevant here for several reasons.

One: the 2021 Houston Texans are in the exact same spot, currently at the bottom of just about every power ranking imaginable. Two: why is a team that lost 15 straight games a year ago now a three-point favorite on the road?

https://twitter.com/aaronjreiss/status/1420792937009590279

I understand the excitement around Jacksonville landing a generational talent like Trevor Lawrence. But adding a rookie QB, Marvin Jones and some overpriced defensive players won’t solve the woes of a Jags team that finished 27th in offensive and 31st in defensive DVOA in 2020. Especially when they’re led by a college coach seemingly in over his head.

Jaguars aren't thrilled with Urban Meyer. Already?

Reminds me of when there were rumblings of Matt Patricia losing the locker room in his first Lions' training camp. Patricia never seemed to win back his players.https://t.co/YYgHA4IdfD

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) August 27, 2021

The Texans’ best player won’t be anywhere near the field this year, but they still have some pieces on offense that can contribute. Their O-line is solid, Brandin Cooks is productive everywhere he plays and they have plenty of veteran running backs to chose from. Led by a QB a conservative Tyrod Taylor (who coincidently beat last year’s number one pick in Week 1) this offense will at least play complementary football to a defense that is going to try and get their hands on the football.

Longtime Bears head coach Lovie Smith returns to the NFL to preach the gospel of Tampa 2 and takeaways to this Texans defense, and the message appears to be landing: through three preseason games, Houston forced 10 turnovers. Against a kid making his first NFL start, in an offense that appears rudderless so far, look for that to continue.

Urban Meyer: Our offense was too vanilla last week

Play calling tonight: pic.twitter.com/JiY7l174EO

— Kelly Gramlich (@kellygramlich) August 24, 2021

This should be a downright ugly game to watch, but who cares as long as we start this year’s upset picks off with a win?

Raiders rally over injury-riddled Ravens

This is the most optimistic time of year for every NFL fan, but if you’re a Baltimore backer, you’re probably busy cussing out the cursed ground the practice facility was clearly built on. The Ravens lost two more players to ACL injuries this week, adding even more uncertainty to a backfield that is huge part of their offensive identity. Despite that, they’re still 4-point favorites over the Raiders in their first game in front of Las Vegas fans.

The concern for both players — Marcus Peters and Gus Edwards — is a torn ACL, sources say. They both will have tests to confirm. Just terrible. https://t.co/K9GpDU0SI7

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 9, 2021

The Raiders could put up points in 2020, ranking 14th in offensive DVOA, eighth in total yards and 10th in scoring. Their undoing was a defense that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air. After an offseason of spending and hiring Gus Bradley to bring a base level of competence to Vegas, am I buying that the Raiders D will improve? Not across the whole season, no.

The #Raiders added all of this to the defense in one off-season
Yannick Ngakoue
Malcolm Koonce
Darius Philon
Gerald McCoy
Solomon Thomas
Quinton Jefferson
KJ Wright
Denzel Perryman
Divine Deablo
Casey Hayward
Nate Hobbs
Tre'Von Moehrig
Tyree Gillespie

But the biggest: Ron Millus

— Tristen Kuhn (@KuhnTristen) September 2, 2021

But to pull off a win here, there’s not that many weapons to worry about on Baltimore. For all the improvements we thought the Ravens passing game might make this year, with rookie Rashod Bateman sidelined, Sammy Watkins is the only new addition to the bunch. And as we mentioned earlier, who knows who will be receiving the bulk of the handoffs from Lamar Jackson?

This #Ravens backfield is going to win so many 2016 fantasy championships.

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) September 10, 2021

Since 2010, teams opening new stadiums are 5-2 straight-up in their first home game, which includes a Vegas win last year. But considering this is their first time taking the field with fans, it’s sort of like an opening game all over again. Look for Vegas to pull off the upset.