Week 10 NFL Props: New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
- The Patriots travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans in Week 10
- Will Josh Gordon’s role continue to grow?
- See the three best props for NE vs TEN
After a slow start, the New England Patriots are back where they’re used to being: atop the AFC East at 7-2.
The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, are still finding their way under Mike Vrabel. They’re 4-4 and hoping to build some momentum, and get back into the playoffs.
For more on the two teams, read our Patriots vs Titans Preview. Because from here out, it’s all about props for this matchup.
Prop #1: Tom Brady Completions
| Tom Brady completions vs Titans | Odds |
|---|---|
| 26+ | -156 |
| 27+ | -108 |
| 28+ | -114 |
| 29+ | +143 |
| 30+ | +188 |
| 31+ | +247 |
The return of Julian Edelman and the acclimation of Josh Gordon changed the Patriots’ offense and Tom Brady’s season.
Over the first four weeks of the season, Brady averaged 21.8 completions per game. His average yards per attempt over that stretch? 6.75.
Tom Brady has had considerable success when facing the #1 scoring defense. He gets another crack Sunday in Nashville #Patriots #Titans pic.twitter.com/1hkD9rrXI6
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) November 7, 2018
Since Edelman came back and Gordon became a near-full time player in the Pats’ offense, things have gotten better. Brady is averaging 26.8 completions over that time, and his yard per attempt is up to 8.16.
| 34(IND) | Week 5 | 10(BUF) |
| 24(KC) | Week 6 | 25(BAL) |
| 25(CHI) | Week 7 | 19(LAC) |
| 29(BUF) | Week 8 | BYE |
| 22(GB) | Week 9 | 21(DAL) |
The Titans have been doing fairly well keeping opposing quarterbacks under wraps. But you have to consider the opposition. The two best outings over the last five weeks completions-wise, came from Joe Flacco and Dak Prescott.
.@Titans DC Dean Pees on @Patriots QB Tom Brady pic.twitter.com/BJnhbQApJR
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) November 8, 2018
Last year in the Divisional Round, it was quintessential Brady. He got the ball out of his hands, quickly, 53 times and let his receivers do the work. Through the entire playoffs he went 55/71 on passes 0-10 yards.
Expect a few more shots to Gordon and a target on the struggling Malcolm Butler, but plenty of completions for Brady.
The Pick: Tom Brady has 28+ Completions (-114)
Prop #2: Derrick Henry Carries & Yards
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry has 12+ carries | -118 |
| Derrick Henry has 44+ rushing yards | -116 |
| PARLAY | +141 |
Last year in the playoffs, Derrick Henry carried the ball 12 times for 28 yards against the Patriots. That was after a dominant 156 yards on 23 carries against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Unfortunately, that was a precursor for Henry’s year. He and Dion Lewis have mostly fizzled so far.
But could things go Henry’s way on Sunday?
While the Pats employ a deceptively effective pass defense, they’re more than willing to let running backs test their luck when facing mobile QBs.
https://twitter.com/ISteeleABC6/status/1060955599343620098
Take last week for example. Aaron Rodgers was contained to just eight yards on four carries. But against a lighter box, Aaron Jones went off for 75 yards. Jamaal Williams was content to add 34 of his own too.
Against teams with more mobile QBs, New England gave up 80 or more rushing yards to the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, Chiefs, and Bears.
Henry has gone over 50 yards just three times this season and is coming off his lowest usage of the season (20% of offensive snaps).
Shout out to the Titans for finally remembering Derrick Henry plays RB for them pic.twitter.com/OqbsxAeXlP
— ?️?️Ⓜ️ (@big__bam) November 6, 2018
Dion Lewis has been looking like the number one, but it’d be a Belichickian move if Mike Vrabel gave Henry more work after barely using him Monday.
Expect him to hover around that 50 yard mark once again.
The Pick: Derrick Henry gets 12+ carries & 44+ yards (+141)
Prop #3: Josh Gordon Has Another Big One
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Gordon has 5+ receptions | +112 |
| Josh Gordon has 101+ receiving yards | +217 |
| PARLAY | +265 |
It has been a slow build for Josh Gordon with the Patriots.
It was a modest debut against Miami. Then there was a little more noise against the Colts. Since then, Gordon has been showing boom or bust potential in the Patriots offense.
Against the Titans, it will be another boom.
There has been a lot made about the struggles of Malcolm Butler since he went to the Titans.
Butler is currently grading out at 53.4 in coverage according to PFF. After sliding from 86.9 in 2016 to 69.7 last year, this is a new low for him.
Tom Brady on Malcolm Butler, "he wants to try to win every play. Hopefully we can have a good plan against that entire defense." #Patriots #Titans
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) November 9, 2018
Butler has missed six tackles this year, which is as many as he missed last year. Quarterbacks are completing passes at a 72% clip when targeting him; he’s allowing 15.8 yards per catch; and he’s broken up just two passes.
| Josh Gordon’s Receiving Stats | Receptions | Yards | Average | Longest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week vs KC | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 12 |
| Week 7 @ CHI | 4 | 100 | 25.0 | 55 |
| Week 8 @ BUF | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 18 |
| Week 9 vs GB | 5 | 130 | 26 | 55 |
Gordon has a 55-yard catch in two of his last three games. Brady has a passer rating of 100 or better when targeting Gordon in four of his six games. He’s also proven reliable, with just three drops on 36 targets.
And Gordon has the size advantage too. Gordon is 6’3”. Butler is 5’11”, which some feel is why the Patriots preferred Stephon Gilmore to him.
The new Pat gets the better of the ex-Pat in this one.
The Pick: Gordon has 5+ catches & 101+ yards (+265)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
