NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• NFL Week 12 is a do-or-die situation for many team on the fringe of the Wild Card race
• The 5-5 Niners are 2.5 games out of a postseason berth as they visit the 7-3 Packers
• Below, see my three favorite NFL Week 12 ATS picks to target early in the week

The 2024 NFL regular season is nearly two-thirds finished already and a quick glance at the standings reveals some massive surprises, first and foremost, the reigning NFC-champion San Francisco 49ers are 2.5 games out of a Wild Card berth. They’re only a game back of the division-leading Cardinals but, viewed another way, they’re also in a three-way tie for last in the NFC West. Making matters worse, they head to Lambeau this week to face the 7-3 Green Bay Packers as 2.5-point underdogs. But I’m earmarking this Sunday as the Week the Niners turn everything around.

Early NFL Week 12 ATS Picks

In addition to betting the Niners at an alt-spread of -1.5, I am also backing two home underdogs catching more than a field goal in the Week 12 NFL odds. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to bet on NFL Week 12. 

Week 12 ATS Pick #1: Bears +3.5 (-115) vs Vikings

My first ATS pick of Week 12 is the hard-luck Chicago Bears (4-6, 4-2 home) to cover as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 4-1 away). After being on the wrong end of the a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8, the Bears suffered more late-game devastation this Sunday: Cairo Santos had a 46-yard field goal blocked at the buzzer as Chicago fell 20-19 to Green Bay.

PACKERS BLOCK THE FIELD GOAL FOR THE WIN.#GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/gq8zbz965C

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

But one of my main takeaways from that game was how well the Bears played. They out-gained the Packers (391-366) and dominated time of possession (36:21 to 23:39).

The Vikings have played a soft schedule the last few weeks and haven’t looked particularly good doing so. Minnesota’s current three-game win streak includes a 20-13 win vs Indianapolis, a 12-7 win at Jacksonville (in which they failed to score a TD) and, most recently, a 23-13 win at Tennessee. Those teams are a combined 9-23 with a -215 point differential.

The Bears are two games under .500 but with a +7 point differential. This is a solid Chicago team that is catching too many points at home.

Week 12 ATS Pick #2: Giants +5.5 (-115) vs Buccaneers

My second pick is a hold-your-breath-plug-your-nose sort of play. The Giants (2-8, 0-5 home) have lost five in a row, including a 20-17 setback to the Panthers overseas in Week 10. But the last three have all been one-score games and QB Daniel Jones has finally been benched. I am not expecting a huge offensive explosion with Tommy DeVito under center, but I do expect a few more points with the sophomore pivot making his first start of the season.

The Buccaneers (4-6, 2-2 away) have been wildly inconsistent. They are the only team to beat the Lions this year (20-16 away in Week 2) and also own wins over the Eagles and Commanders, but they enter Week 12 on a four-game losing streak and their only real hope of making the postseason is to catch the Falcons at the top of the NFC South – a team they’ve already lost to twice.

Tampa certainly deserves to be favored in this spot – their +13 point differential is 79 points better than NYG’s (-66) – but this is also a lot of points to be laying on the road against a good defense and a potentially reinvigorated passing game.

Week 12 ATS Pick #3: 49ers -1.5 (+125) at Packers

For my final ATS pick of the week, I am moving  the line across zero and betting the underdog to win by at least two points. This is the first time the 49ers (5-5, 2-2 away) have been underdogs since 2022. You read that right. They were favored in every game last season (including the Super Bowl) and every game this year … until now.

One of the main reasons for San Francisco’s underdog status is QB Brock Purdy’s shoulder injury, which has him listed as questionable early in the week. I expect Purdy to play and, even if he doesn’t, this is the kind of offense that even Brandon Allen or Josh Dobbs could find success with.

The Packers are a good team; they have a +37 point differential and sit eighth in the NFL in DVOA (+15.5%). But the Niners are a better one by almost all metrics, leaving win/loss records to the side for a moment. San Francisco is still sixth in DVOA (+21.1%) and would be in control of the NFC West if not for baffling late-game collapses against the Cardinals in Week 5 and Seahawks in Week 11.

The Niners championship pedigree is going to come to the fore eventually, and I love the price on it happening this week.