- The Washington Redskins visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football for Week 13
- Can Zach Ertz continue on his record-setting pace?
- Which Redskins’ receivers are in line for a big night on MNF?
Week 13’s Monday Night Football matchup features an NFC East rivalry between the 6-5 Washington Redskins and the 5-6 Philadelphia Eagles. We dig into the prop cards to find the three best bets for this match on MNF.
Prop #1: Zach Ertz To Score At Least 1 Receiving TD
Against a Redskins’ pass defense which ranks 23rd in YPG, the Eagles’ leading receiver should find space to reach the end zone on Monday.
|Player Props||Odds at BetOnline|
|Zach Ertz At Least 1 Receiving TD||-105|
|Alshon Jeffery At Least 1 Receiving TD||-105|
|Golden Tate At Least 1 Receiving TD||+140|
*For more options please follow the link in the table. All odds taken on 11/29/18.
Ertz leads Philly in targets (111), receptions (84), and touchdowns (6).
Last week the TE brought down seven catches and is only a few weeks removed from a 14-catch day on November 11. All to say that QB Carson Wentz looks to Ertz often in key passing situations.
Zach Ertz on pace to set record for catches by a TE in a season https://t.co/6tVM8Ncr4r
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 28, 2018
After starting the season slow with no TDs in the opening four weeks, Ertz has recorded six TDs in the past seven games, only failing to score in two of those games.
Ertz has been such a focal point of the Eagles’ offense that he’s already set career-highs and is on pace to break several team and league records for a tight end.
He’s also one of the most heavily targeted players in the red zone this season.
Red zone target leaders in 2018:
1. Alvin Kamara: 21
2. Michael Thomas: 18
T-3: Zach Ertz: 17
T-3: JuJu Smith-Schuster: 17
T-5: James White: 16
T-5: Davante Adams: 16
T-7: DeAndre Hopkins: 15
T-7: Adam Thielen: 15
T-9: Four at 14
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 15, 2018
Pick: Zach Ertz To Score At Least 1 Receiving TD
Prop #2: Josh Doctson and Jordan Reed To Combine For At Least 10 Receptions
Josh Doctson and Jordan Reed have been the Skins’ top two receivers this season.
Reed leads the team with 78 targets and 50 receptions. Doctson ranks second on the team in both categories with 56 targets and 32 catches.
|Receptions||Odds at BetOnline|
|At Least 8 Combined Receptions||-244|
|At Least 9 Combined Receptions||-145|
|At Least 10 Combined Receptions||-115|
|At Least 11 Combined Receptions||+131|
|At Least 12 Combined Receptions||+199|
Be sure to check on the status of Reed who sustained a crushing hit to the head last Thursday and is listed as questionable. Though he was not placed in concussion protocal, the TE has not practiced all week due to a back injury.
If Reed sits out I’d look into a receptions prop on Doctson alone for somewhere between 4-6 receptions depending how much of a payout you’re looking for. For reference, at least five receptions would payout at +183.
Jordan Reed has every right to be furious, clear hit to the helmet and it goes uncalled. Has to be frustrating, especially for a guy with a history of concussions. pic.twitter.com/v6EBmS2qNW
— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) November 23, 2018
Assuming Reed plays, though, these two receivers have combined for 12 and ten receptions in the past two games. They also recorded 12 combined catches back in Week 8 as well.
Doctson vs Reed Receptions Last 5 Games
With Colt McCoy under center in Week 12, they both saw plenty of action last week with almost 50% of the total targets (18/38).
In McCoy’s limited relief time two weeks ago after the Alex Smith injury, Reed and Doctson were responsible for four of McCoy’s six completions.
Small sample size but the huge uptick in volume for Josh Doctson with Colt McCoy as QB has me intrigued. 30% target share and 40% air yard share is comparable to any top WR. If Doctson sees anywhere near this volume he's an automatic top-30 WR to close #NextGenStats #HTTR pic.twitter.com/QnXoUgm3zB
— James Koh (@JamesDKoh) November 28, 2018
Pick 2: Josh Doctson and Jordan Reed To Combine For At Least 10 Receptions
Prop #3: Colt McCoy To Have At Least 20 Completions and 200 Passing Yards
|Result||Odds at BetOnline|
|At Least 20 Pass Completions||-175|
|At Least 200 Passing Yards||-1111|
Back on Thanksgiving I suggested this exact prop combination and it cashed with McCoy going 24/38 for 268 yards against the Cowboys in Dallas.
It’s time to go back to the well against an Eagles defense which allows the fifth-most passing yards per game in the league with 276.5.
As I mentioned last week, McCoy hasn’t seen any significant playing time since 2014. In his three full starts that season he completed 25, 31 and 20 passes for 299, 392 and 199 yards, respectively.
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) November 22, 2018
A quick look at the Eagles’ recent games and McCoy should be able to once again reach these totals.
In Philadelphia’s last five games, no quarterback has completed any less than 22 passes or less than 269 passing yards. In those five games, opposing QBs have averaged 24.8 completions and 299 yards.
Pick 3: Colt McCoy To Have At Least 20 Completions and 200 Passing Yards
Let's have fun and keep it civil.