Week 13 NFL Props: Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots
- The Minnesota Vikings head to New England to take on the Patriots in Week 13
- Which QB will throw for more yards: Tom Brady or Kirk Cousins?
- See three props to consider for the game
It’s stretch-run time in the NFL, and there are plenty of interesting matchups to tackle in our Week 13 NFL Props.
The most interesting, is the Minnesota Vikings visiting the New England Patriots. Despite an 8-3 record, the Pats have been tough to read this year. The Vikes meanwhile, have frustrated Mike Zimmer with their inconsistent play.
Prop #1: Tom Brady has more passing yards than Kirk Cousins
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady has more passing yards than Kirk Cousins | +117 |
Tom Brady hasn’t been having a very Tom Brady-like season.
The Patriots QB is 11th in passing yards, 15th in touchdowns and 14th in passer rating among QBs with at least 200 completions.
He also hasn’t been outgunning many opposing QBs at home.
But he may have a chance this week. If there’s one area where the Pats’ defense grades out well, it’s against the pass.
| 176 | Week 1 (HOU) | 277 |
| 100 | Week 4 (MIA) | 274 |
| 365 | Week 5 (IND) | 341 |
| 352 | Week 6 (KC) | 340 |
| 259 | Week 9 (GB) | 294 |
*Numbers are based on Patriots home games
The bulk numbers aren’t great (8th in total yards allowed and yards per game), but Stephon Gilmore (PFF: 90.0) and Jason McCourty (83.3) are thriving on the outside. One will get Stefon Diggs and the other will likely tail Adam Thielen in and out of the slot.
Minnesota’s two top corners are Xavier Rhodes (61.8; Questionable) and Trae Waynes (63.7). It would be a surprise if Rhodes played, making life easier for Brady, Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman.
Here's a fun one.
Highest PFF grade on incompletions (could be credit for a good throw, or lack of downgrade despite incomplete pass)
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Patrick Mahomes
Tom Brady
Kirk Cousins— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) November 27, 2018
Don’t expect the Vikings to struggle, but Cousins, coming off two down road performances, will be outgunned by Brady.
The Pick: Tom Brady passes for more yards than Kirk Cousins (+117)
Prop #2: Dalvin Cook runs all over the Patriots
| Dalvin Cook has at least… | Odds |
|---|---|
| 61+ rushing yards | +110 |
| 71+ rushing yards | +149 |
| 81+ rushing yards | +213 |
If there’s one thing the Patriots have struggled with the past few seasons, it’s versatile running backs.
While Cousins may struggle through the air, a now-healthy Dalvin Cook should thrive on the ground.
From a Vikings’ perspective, there isn’t a lot to go on. The last three weeks, Cook has been pedestrian. Removing a 70-yard run against the Lions, he’s average 2.14 yards per carry.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Attempts | Yards | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | vs Lions | 10 | 89 | 8.9 |
| 11 | @ Bears | 9 | 12 | 1.3 |
| 12 | vs Packers | 10 | 29 | 2.9 |
But in New England, the ground game has been a source of frustration.
Just two teams, the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills, have averaged under 4.0 yards-per-carry against the Pats. Six of New England’s 11 opponents gained 100+ yards on the ground.
Dalvin Cook lowers his head and TRUCKS the Packers DB ? pic.twitter.com/aQfzPkb7td
— ??Thaddeus Ghostal? (@DFSBBallGuy) November 26, 2018
Cook’s PFF run grade has been at least 60 in two of the last three weeks, which is more in line with last year’s 76.6.
Are we expecting a 150-yard, two touchdown performance out of Cook? No. But he’ll be good enough to get you some money on Sunday
The Pick: Dalvin Cook rushes for least 71+ yards (+149)
Prop #3: Gronk and Edelman go to work
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Julian Edelman has 83+ receiving yards | -115 |
| Rob Gronkowski has 1+ TD catch | +125 |
Is a three-catch, 56-yard, one-touchdown week, enough to say that Rob Gronkowski is back?
Not likely, but it did prove something still holds true: if Gronk is out there, Brady will find him.
He’ll also find Julian Edelman, who hauled in four balls for 84 yards and a TD of his own.
After three slower weeks following his four-game suspension, Edelman has started to find his footing again as Brady’s most-trusted receiver.
One theme of Patriots week: Impact of having the full band back together again on offense. Patriots are 4-0 and average 33.3 points per game when Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon all play. When at least 1 does not play, they are 4-3 and average 24.9 points per game.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) November 28, 2018
In 2016, many thought Edelman was slowing down, as his catch rate dipped to 61.6%. It was a drastic fall off from his 69.3% in 2015. This year? It’s at a career-high 72.1%.
And going back to the Vikes’ health issues at corner, how will they contend with Edelman? After Waynes and Rhodes, Mackensie Alexander (Questionable) is the only other healthy Minnesota corner with at least 100 coverage snaps.
Return of the Gronk.@RobGronkowski | #NEvsNYJ | #GoPats pic.twitter.com/qDs8q28yu5
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 25, 2018
As for Gronk, he’s got five red zone targets this season. Three of them came against the Jets, and that doesn’t even include his touchdown.
Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith will make life tough for Gronkowski, but he’ll get his red zone looks. And Brady will look for Edelman early and often.
The Pick: Julian Edelman gets 83+ receiving yards (-115) and Rob Gronkowski catches 1+ TDs (+125)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
