Week 15 Monday Night Football Props (Saints vs Panthers)

• The New Orleans Saints visit the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football for Week 15
• Can Christian McCaffrey continue to carry the load for the Panthers’ offense?
• Is Michael Thomas in line for another 100-yard day?

Week 15’s Monday Night Football matchup features the 11-2 New Orleans Saints visiting the 6-7 Carolina Panthers. We dig into the prop cards to find the three best bets for this match on MNF.

Prop #1: Christian McCaffrey To Have At Least 6 Receptions and 50 Receiving Yards

*For more options please follow the link in the table. All odds taken on 12/15/18.

McCaffrey has been such a large part of the Panthers’ offense this season that there are any number of prop combinations you could create to include the Carolina running back.

Though he’s fifth in the league in rushing, he’s been equally effective as a pass catcher too.

Most red zone touches this season:
1. Todd Gurley: 69
2. Alvin Kamara: 62
3. Christian McCaffrey: 48
T-4.Ezekiel Elliott: 44
T-4. Saquon Barkley: 44
6. James Conner: 39
7. Sony Michel: 34
T-8. Adrian Peterson: 29
T-8. Peyton Barber: 29
T-8. Chris Carson: 29

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 14, 2018

The Saints also rank first overall in defending the run, so let’s focus on McCaffrey the receiver.

Only five times all season has McCaffrey not finished a game with at least six receptions over his 13 games. That includes finishing with six or more receptions in each of the past four games.

McCaffrey Receptions & Receiving Yards Last 5 Games

While McCaffrey finished with only 38 receiving yards last week, his lowest total was 55 in any of the five weeks prior.

With 99 targets and 86 catches, he leads the Panthers in both categories by a large margin. His season averages also fall right in line with this bet with 6.6 catches and 53.9 yards per game.

Christian McCaffrey is the third player since at least 1950 to have 700+ rushing yards, 700+ receiving yards, and 5+ TDs of both by this point in the season

No one has gone 800-800-5-5 in a full season since Marshall Faulk in 2000 https://t.co/W1RAooL9GK pic.twitter.com/k5GX19b8G5

— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) December 13, 2018

Pick 1: Christian McCaffrey To Have At Least 6 Receptions and 50 Receiving Yards

Prop #2: Ian Thomas To Have At Least 4 Receptions and 30 Receiving Yards

Thomas hasn’t seen much action this season as a backup to TE Greg Olsen. He did see playing time at the beginning of the season with Olsen missing time due to injury.

Thomas increased his yardage totals in each of the first four weeks from four, ten, 20 and finally 38 yards.

Upon Olsen’s return Thomas only had one catch up until the Panthers’ game on December 2, when Olsen once again left the game injured. Thomas proceeded to have his highest output of the season in catching all five balls thrown his way for 46 total yards.

Ian Thomas yesterday: 61-of-73 snaps, 42 routes run on 45 Newton drop backs. 42 snaps lined up either slot or wide. Saw 11 targets for a 26% share.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 10, 2018

That was clearly enough to gain the trust of Cam Newton as he was the most heavily targeted Panthers’ receiver last week against the Browns. Thomas led the team with 11 targets and nine catches. He finished with the second-most receiving yards on the team with 77.

At near even-money, if Thomas continues to figure prominently in Carolina’s passing game he should easily cash this bet.

Pick 2: Ian Thomas To Have At Least 4 Receptions and 30 Receiving Yards

Prop #3: Michael Thomas To Have At Least 95 Receiving Yards

For the final prop I’ll look to another Thomas, but this time to the Saints’ Michael Thomas.

The Panthers run unit ranks a strong seventh in YPG which could result in Sean Payton and the Saints trying their luck against Carolina’s 20th ranked pass unit.

Carolina is allowing an average of 254.8 YPG. Thomas is sixth in the league with 1,218 yards this season, good for an average of 93.7 YPG.

Though he didn’t find the endzone last week against the Bucs, he was very productive in catching 11 of 13 balls thrown his way for 98 yards.

Michael Thomas has an 86.7% catch rate this season, which would be the highest by a player in a 1,000-yard season in our database (target data back to 1992) https://t.co/yxGYTNfvsM pic.twitter.com/v0Tee2HOls

— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) December 6, 2018

The Panthers’ pass defense has struggled lately to contain their opposition’s top receivers, as they’ve allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of the past five games.

In fact, against the Seahawks both Tyler Lockett and David Moore finished with over 100 yards. Meaning the past four games have seen four players eclipse the century mark.

That fifth game in Week 10, both of the Steelers’ top two receivers fell just short of the mark with 96 and 90 receiving yards by Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster, respectively.

Pick 3: Michael Thomas To Have At Least 95 Receiving Yards