Upcoming Match-ups

Week 16 NFL Player Props – Best Player Props to Bet

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Dec 23, 2022 · 3:41 PM PST

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce
Dec 18, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates with tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
  • Online sportsbooks have released Week 16 player props for Christmas weekend
  • Will Patrick Mahomes go over 300 passing yards once again? Can Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce find the endzone for prop players?
  • See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds, plus our best player prop picks below

The holiday season is here and this Christmas weekend is full of NFL games to bet on and plenty of NFL player props to target on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Let’s dig into the props odds and see if we can find a few early gifts in our Week 16 prop picks.

Our NFL season record so far is 70-67, -9.53 units on the season.

Read on for our top Week 16 NFL player props.

Week 16 NFL Player Props

Prop Odds Risk
Patrick Mahomes Over 298.5 Passing Yards -115 1 unit
JK Dobbins Over 56.5 Rushing Yards -140 1 unit
Chris Godwin Over 66.5 Receiving Yards -115 1 unit
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD -160 1 unit
Travis Kelce Anytime TD -160 1 unit

Get this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Our top Week 16 NFL player props above include plays on Patrick Mahomes, JK Dobbins, Chris Godwin, Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce.


Bet $5, Get $150 if Either QB Throws for 1+ Yard!

BET $5
GET $150


Week 16 Passing Prop – Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes is closing in on an NFL season record for passing yards, sitting just 982 form breaking the all-time record.

That may not be on his mind when his 11-3 Chiefs host the 7-7 Seahawks, however, at the rate Mahomes is passing lately he may surpass that number regardless. He was 36/41, 336 yards and two touchdowns last week. He also completed his final 20 passes of the game.

He’s now thrown five touchdown passes over his last two games and has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in 8/9 games. In fact, the lowest passing total he’s posted during that time is 320. Twice he’s thrown for over 400 yards over that stretch.

Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 298.5 passing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 16 Rushing Prop – JK Dobbins Rushing Yards

With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens’ running game has turned to JK Dobbins. Dobbins has put up back-to-back 100 yard games, rushing for 125 yards last week against the Browns and 120 yards the week prior against the Steelers.

That falls right in line with how many yards Atlanta averages giving up on the ground, 129.9 (21st).

Opposing running backs have been having all kinds of success against the Falcons of late. Alvin Kamara ran for 91 yards last week with the Saints. Before that, Najee Harris ran for 86, Brian Robinson Jr totalled 105, Justin Fields 85 and D’Onta Foreman 130 in recent weeks.

Luckily we don’t need Dobbins to come anywhere near those numbers to cash this NFL player prop. We just need him to rush for 57 yards.

Prop Pick: JK Dobbins over 56.5 rushing yards (-140); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 16 Receiving Prop – Chris Godwin Receiving Yards

Last week Tom Brady targeted Chris Godwin eight times and the receiver brought down all eight passes for 83 yards and a score.

Those were the fewest targets Godwin has seen since October 9 when he saw six passes. Otherwise, he’s seen double-digit targets six times since, as well as games with eight, nine and eight (last week).

That’s resulted in Godwin catching six or more receptions in 8/9 of those games. On the season as a whole, he’s caught six or more passes in 10/12 games. Godwin’s receptions props aren’t posted yet. However, his receiving yards prop is and it’s set at 66.5. That’s a total he’s passed in three of five recent games. One other game in that stretch he fell just four yards short of going over that total.

Prop Pick: Chris Godwin over 66.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 16 Touchdown Prop – Saquon Barkley Anytime TD

The Colts just put up 36 points on the Vikings last week. And they did so with QB Matt Ryan only throwing for 182 yards.

However, Zach Moss (81 yards), Deon Jackson (55 yards) and Michael Pittman Jr (30 yards) all found success on the ground.

Saquon Barkley, the league’s fourth-leading rusher should be licking his lips against a Vikings’ run defense giving up an average of 120.4 YPG on the ground.

Barkley had 87 yards rushing and a score last week and while he’s been kept relatively quiet from a yardage standpoint of late, (87, 28, 63, 39, 22 yards rushing) in his past five games, he has scored a TD in three of those five games. He’s also found the endzone in 5/7 games of late and nine times this season.

Prop Pick: Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown (-160); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 16 Touchdown Prop – Travis Kelce Anytime TD

Travis Kelce may not have found the endzone for three weeks, but he is coming off a 10/10 receiving game for 105 yards last week against the Texans. Houston ranks 19th in passing yards allowed at 221.4 YPG. Seattle ranks right about the same at 17th, allowing 217.7.

But where they are much worse is in defending tight ends. Seattle allows the third-most yards to tight ends and just let George Kittle catch 93 yards and two touchdowns last week.

Only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than Seattle’s eight and Kelce has 12 on the year already. We’ll bet he gets his 13th in our NFL player props on Christmas Eve.

Prop Pick: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-160); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Author Image