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Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 3, 2024 · 6:50 AM PST

In the Week 18 NFL picks ATS, the Packers are 9-0 ATS in the last nine against the Bears.
Dec 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) hands off the ball to running back Aaron Jones (33) against the Minnesota Vikings during their game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports
  • In the Week 18 NFL picks against the spread picks, the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens are sharing the league lead with ATS marks of 11-5
  • At 4-10-2, the Carolina Panthers are all alone as the NFL’s worst ATS teams this season
  • All of the Week 18 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below

The only thing to look ahead about as the NFL season arrives at Week 18 is that this is the final regular-season week for NFL picks against the spread.

But before we get to that, add another kick in the teeth as a reminder of what a dismal campaign it has been. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, Week 17 figuratively said hold my beer.

Yours truly went 0-3. Tampa Bay, with a share of the NFL’s best ATS record, couldn’t cover at home against the Saints, who owned a share of the league’s worst ATS mark when they took the field. That’s the kind of year it’s been.

The Rams gave up a punt return TD in the game’s dying moments to fail to cover against the Giants. And speaking of kicking, I’m still kicking myself for picking the Eagles over the Cardinals.  As someone who covered the Matt Patricia-coached Detroit Lions, it should’ve been incumbent to recognize that counting on any team that was counting on Patricia to be a difference maker was pure folly.

Who’s gonna quit when they’re behind? Not me.

Let’s look forward to the NFL football line for the Week 18 ATS picks.

If the Texans win over the Colts, they’re in the playoffs. They’ll get it done. So will the Packers, who generally dismantle the Bears at home. As for the Seahawks, there’s mixed emotions. They’ll cover against the Cardinals, but won’t get the needed Packers setback in order to grab a place in the NFL postseason.

Now, let’s check out all the best early bets in the Week 18 ATS picks.

Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts HOU-1.5 HOU 1
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers GB-3 GB 1
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals SEA-2.5 SEA 1

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Texans, Packers, and Seahawks.

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NFL ATS Picks 1: Texans Make Playoffs

A road victory over the Indianapolis Colts guarantees that the Houston Texans are in the NFL postseason. A Houston win plus a Jacksonville loss at Tennessee gives the Texans the AFC South title.

The road club is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four games between the Colts and Texans.

NFL ATS Picks: Houston Texans -1.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 2: Green Bay Owns Chicago

The Green Bay Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS in the past nine meetings with their NFC North rivals the Chicago Bears.

At Lambeau Field, Green Bay is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS over the past seven contests. The Packers won their past three home games against Chicago by an average margin of 17 points.

NFL ATS Picks: Green Bay Packers -3 (-105), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 3: Seahawks Soar Past Cardinals

Seattle’s Week 18 scenario is identical to last season. The Seahawks need to win and hope Green Bay loses in order to make the playoffs.

It worked out for them last year. This time, though, like Jon Bon Jovi, Seattle will get halfway there while living on a prayer. The Seahawks have covered in four straight against Arizona.

NFL ATS Picks: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-120), 1 unit

  • NFL ATS record: 16-31-4

Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Steelers (-3.5) vs Ravens: Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in the last six games at Baltimore
  • Patriots (-2) vs Jets: Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots in New England since 2011
  • Browns (+6) vs Bengals: Cincinnati might win, but it’ll be a close one
  • Titans (+5.5) vs Jaguars: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2021 season
  • Falcons (+3) vs Saints: New Orleans is an NFL-worst 3-10-1 ATS following a victory since the beginning of last season
  • Buccaneers (-5) vs Panthers: Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in the last eight road games
  • Lions (-3) vs Vikings: Detroit is 4-1 ATS over the past five games
  • Raiders (-2.5) vs Broncos: Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS over the last eight games
  • Commanders (+13) vs Cowboys: Dallas is 1-4 ATS in the past five games
  • 49ers (-3.5) vs Rams: Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings with San Francisco
  • Chiefs (+3) vs Chargers: Kansas City is 6-2 ATS the last eight times playing as a betting underdog
  • Giants (+5) vs Eagles: New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in the past five games
  • Bills (-3) vs Dolphins: Buffalo has alternated between covering and not covering over the past 10 years against Miami (5-5 ATS). This year, the Bills are due to cover

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