NFL Week 3 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets & Underdogs Showing Value
- Can Rodgers best Brady in a Bucs uniform for once?
- Will the Lions offense keep rolling against Minnesota?
- Last week’s picks went 1-3, losing us 0.7 units, which is also our season total (2-4-1)
The first two weeks of these picks haven’t been successful, but at least they’ve been thrilling to the very end. We were a late Jalen Ramsey pick away from a positive return last week, and we’re expecting some more nail-biters on this week’s slate for the NFL Week 3 upset picks.
This round of underdogs has a lot to like if you’re a fan of offense. We’re backing an elite QB, one who could join those ranks very soon and… Jared Goff. But hey, don’t let the name fool you, the Lions are putting up points this year! Hopefully, these upset picks can say the same thing after this week.
NFL Week 3 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -1 | +100 | Packers | 1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers | LAC -3 | +143 | Jaguars | 1 |
| Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings | MIN -6 | +210 | Lions | 1 |
Odds as of September 16th at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook
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Packers handle Bucs
The Green Bay Packers are rare underdogs, getting one point when they travel to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers.
A good policy I’ve learned doing this column: when Aaron Rodgers is getting points, back him every time. Since Matt Lafleur took over, Green Bay is 8-2 straight up in regular season games where they’re underdogs and Rodgers is active.
The Buccaneers are still banged up with a lot of those injuries coming to key offensive players. Tom Brady is going to have to attack a strong Packers secondary without his top two receivers and behind a patchwork offensive line.
Sammy Watkins is out for Sunday. Here's the full #Packers and #Buccaneers injury report. pic.twitter.com/SbfYAMEInY
— John Miller (@JohnMillerNBC26) September 23, 2022
The Pack have receiver injuries of their own, but this offense runs through the backfield this season. Green Bay rolled out the pony personnel, putting both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on the field, and had a ton of success against Chicago. Of course, the Buccaneers pose a much greater threat, though their run defense hasn’t looked as fierce as years past and they’ll be without Akiem Hicks.
"Aaron Rodgers is the artist. He's the independent film director with an Oscar… Tom Brady is Disney. He makes money, lots of it every day. It's a massive and feel good brand." — @ColinCowherd pic.twitter.com/HSHB8skAzT
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) September 23, 2022
Neither one of these QBs are guys you feel great about betting against. But with Rodgers facing down a third straight loss to the Bucs, look for the future Hall of Famer to acquit himself here, much like Brady did last week vs the Saints.
Jaguars beat Bolts
What once was a seven-point spread favoring the Chargers now sees the Jaguars getting just three points in L.A.
That late week shift tells you all you need to know about the status of Justin Herbert’s ribs.
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert is questionable heading into Sunday’s game with the rib injury. He threw on Thursday but didn’t Wednesday or Friday.
— Fernando Ramirez (@RealFRamirez) September 23, 2022
The Chargers’ third-year pivot could gut it out like he did to finish last Thursday’s game with the Chiefs, but we saw how this injury limited his ability to make plays. At one point he bailed on an easy third-down run because the pain was too much. Against a fierce Jaguars pass rush it seems almost certain we’ll see Chase Daniel make an appearance here.
.@Jaguars defensive line are like a pack of hungry wolves. They didn’t just beat the @colts ; they whipped the Colts. Building something special in #Duval #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/1k7GqJYhry
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 19, 2022
The major worry at this point is whether Brandon Staley’s defense can do enough to pull this one out. Though the Bolts boast a dominant pair of edge rushers themselves, with Doug Pederson’s offense making life easy for Trevor Lawrence, it may not matter how quick Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack get off the ball.
Trevor Lawrence's first 3rd down throw of the day was one of my favorites.
Zero fat in his dropback footwork. Ball out and locates the Stop throw on the outside shoulder.
Colts had a good pass rush and good coverage and Lawrence makes it a moot point. pic.twitter.com/bmfJJVr9Yf
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 20, 2022
The AFC South is miserable. The Jaguars can take an early stranglehold on the division with a win here. And as is customary when talking about the Chargers (at least until they move back to San Diego), we must mention they still have no home field advantage. Take Duval.
Lions lash Vikings
The Detroit Lions are a popular play this week when they visit their division rival Vikings as six-point dogs.
The Lions have been a great ATS bet under Dan Campbell, but their straight-up wins have been few and far between. However, they did manage to get one against Minnesota last year and both their meetings were decided on the final play of the game.
🚨 LIONS WIN! LIONS WIN!! 🚨
Jared Goff hits Amon-Ra St. Brown for the TD at the buzzer and the Lions (+245 ML) upset the Vikings 29-27 for their first win of the season! #OnePride (via @NFL)
— TSN EDGE (@TSN_Edge) December 5, 2021
Both teams have improved since last season, but it’s not the squad that brought in a Sean McVay disciple to coach who has the elite offense. The Lions rank just below Buffalo through two games, averaging over 400 yards of offense and 35.5 points an outing.
.@Lions OC, Ben Johnson, is brilliant with what he is creating. Highly explosive plays out of the RUN GAME. They are averaging 7+ / rush…Doesn’t matter who is in the lineup. It’s a coaching clinic in Motown #OnePride #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/saCNbLrsKJ
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 19, 2022
Minnesota hasn’t shown much in the way of an offensive game plan outside of “get the ball to Justin Jefferson.” Admittedly, that plan has worked well against Detroit so far: he’s averaging 125 yards a game in four matchups with the Lions.
Until the Vikings show they can clean up their own defense, which currently ranks 30th in way-too-early-DVOA, why not take Detroit to win what should be an incredibly entertaining shootout?
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
