NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• NFL Week 7 brings another 15 games, starting with Broncos vs Saints on TNF
• Playing their second straight game in London, the 1-5 Jaguars are laying 5.5 points to the 1-5 Patriots
• See my favorite NFL Week 7 ATS picks and early lines to target

Week 6 is in the books and attention has immediately turned to Week 7. The opening Week 7 odds have been posted for all 15 games, which start with an intriguing matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints on TNF. With Saints starter Derek Carr injured, TNF is likely to be a battle between two rookie pivots: Denver’s Bo Nix and New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler. The table below shows my three favorite Week 7 ATS picks and where to find the best odds.

Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Note that Week 7 includes another Monday Night Football doubleheader: Ravens vs Buccaneers kicks off at 8:15 pm ET, while Chargers vs Cardinals starts 45 minutes later at 9:00 pm ET.

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Week 7 ATS Pick #1: Saints -1.5 (+113) vs Broncos

The Saints (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) have entered a steep downward spiral since dusting the Panthers (47-10) and Cowboys (44-19) in Week 1 and 2. They have lost four straight since, including an embarrassing 51-27 setback to the division-rival Bucs last Sunday without starting QB Derek Carr, who was injured last in a Week 5 loss to Kansas City.

Rookie Spencer Rattler went 22-40 for 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the loss to Tampa, his first career start. The road isn’t going to get much easier for Rattler against a solid Denver defense, but I still think the Saints are being undervalued here, listed as 1.5-point home underdogs at most books.

Denver (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) which is starting its own rookie pivot, Bo Nix, has been wildly inconsistent and, notwithstanding last week’s 50-burger by the Bucs, the New Orleans defense is pretty good.

I expect a much better effort on that side of the ball against a highly-stoppable Bronco offense. If Rattler can make even modest improvements in his second start, the Saints have a great chance to stop their losing streak at home.

Week 7 ATS Pick #2: Patriots +5.5 (-108) vs Jaguars

The Jaguars (1-5, 2-4 ATS) have the advantage of staying in London for the week while the Patriots (1-5, 1-4-1 ATS) will be traveling across the Atlantic for this early game on Sunday morning. But travel advantages aside, it feels ludicrous to list this Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite over anyone. 

The Jags have the second-worst point differential in the league at -65, only ahead of the Panthers (-100). Their only win was on a last-second field goal at home against the 2-4 Colts, who were missing starting QB Anthony Richardson.

The sheen has certainly come off New England since its 16-10 Week 1 upset at Cincinnati. The team has lost five in a row, averaging just 13.4 PPG, and hasn’t won ATS since Week 1 either. But they still have a highly capable defense and a ground game that can keep them competitive against a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead-last in DVOA.

Week 7 ATS Pick #2: Giants +3.5 (-108) vs Eagles

The final pick of the week is on the Giants (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Eagles. I rode the Giants in this exact same spot last week against the Bengals and got burned. But I didn’t come away from that game thinking my handicap was wrong. The final score (17-7 Bengals) belies how close a game it was. New York put up more yards (309 to 304) and had nearly nine more minutes of possession. Their defense sacked Joe Burrow four times and limited one of the league’s best pass attacks to just 183 yards on the day.

If not for a red-zone interception and two missed field goals, the Giants don’t only cover, they might win straight-up.

The Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 win over the lowly Browns, their fourth straight anemic performance on offense. Despite their over-.500 record, they sit 20th overall in DVOA including a brutal 26th on defense.

Star rookie WR Malik Nabers (concussion) should be back in the mix for the Giants this week, and if the O-line can give Daniel Jones a little time against the Philly pass rush, I love the Giants chances of covering 3.5.

Keep an eye on the NFL odds page to see how the lines shift during the week and the NFL public betting splits to see where the money is going.