NFL Week 8 Upset Predictions: 3 Best Underdogs to Bet Straight-Up
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Every NFL Sunday, the betting market inevitably misprices a few matchups, opening the door for bettors to hunt for underdogs capable of winning outright. The 14-game slate for Week 8 features massive pricing disparities. The Cincinnati Bengals are currently laying 10 points against the Tennessee Titans (+438 moneyline), while the Jacksonville Jaguars are heavily favored over the Indianapolis Colts (+311 moneyline).
My upset predictions, however, come straight from SBD’s nine-signal, weighted underdog model that evaluates current-season performance, coaching matchups, and situational factors.
The table below sets out the mode’s top-three underdogs to target in Week 8, along with the best-available price.
NFL Week 8 Upset Picks
The model likes two road dogs in Week 7 (ATL, MIN) plus Denver catching points at home. All three are divisional matchups.
The model had an unfortunate Week 7, going 0-3: Green Bay (20-17 at DET), Kansas City (20-3 at SEA), and Philadelphia (38-21 vs DAL). The ended a hot streak in which it went 2-1 in four consecutive weeks, digging out of an early hole. For the season, the model is now 9-12 (-0.48 units on one-unit wagers).
Atlanta Falcons (+117 at NOVIG) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Atlanta Falcons trigger the model’s most predictive indicator as a divisional underdog catching three points or fewer (Signal 1). They hit four additional signals, driven by a multi-tiered coaching advantage. Kevin Stefanski posts a higher career win percentage (.441 to .438) than Todd Bowles (Signal 2) and holds a 1-0 all-time head-to-head edge (Signal 5). The Falcons also enter with a superior season win percentage (.429 to .286, Signal 3) and average 2.43 sacks per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 2.29 (Signal 9).
Tampa Bay counters in the trenches, out-rushing Atlanta 146.4 to 139.9 yards per game and yielding just 77.3 rushing yards against the Falcons’ 88.9. The Buccaneers also control the turnover margin (+0.14 to -0.43). To secure the outright upset, Atlanta must win the turnover battle and utilize their sack advantage to stall Tampa Bay’s passing attack.
Minnesota Vikings (+163 at NOVIG) at Detroit Lions
The Minnesota Vikings narrowly miss the top divisional signal at +3.5 but trigger four critical indicators on the road. Minnesota holds a clear coaching edge, with Kevin O’Connell posting a .645 career win percentage across 76 games compared to Dan Campbell’s .556 over 107 games (Signal 2). The Vikings also bring an unblemished 1.000 season win percentage against the Detroit Lions’ .667 (Signal 3).
Statistically, Minnesota outperforms Detroit on the ground (119.3 to 115.0 rushing yards per game) and posts a field-best +1.17 turnover margin against the Lions’ +0.50 (Signal 4). The Vikings also hold a statistical edge in rushing defense (Signal 7). Detroit’s strongest counterpoint is Campbell’s 5-3 head-to-head lead over O’Connell, plus an explosive offense averaging 298.0 passing yards per game. To win outright, the Vikings must maintain their turnover margin edge and exploit a vulnerable Detroit defense currently surrendering 313.5 passing yards per game.
Denver Broncos (+108 at KALSHI) vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Denver Broncos trigger the model’s top signal as a +1.5 divisional underdog at home (Signals 1 and 8). Despite Andy Reid’s overarching career success, Denver secures a vital coaching indicator via Sean Payton, who holds a 7-6 all-time head-to-head record over Reid (Signal 5). The Broncos also carry a massive pass-rushing advantage, racking up 3.00 sacks per game compared to the Kansas City Chiefs’ 1.33 (Signal 9).
Kansas City counters with dominant statistical edges, fielding a superior win percentage (.833 to .714), a stronger rushing attack (141.5 to 95.0 yards per game), and a better turnover margin (+0.83 to +0.57). The Chiefs also allow just 99.5 rushing yards per game to Denver’s 133.3. To pull off the home upset, the Broncos must leverage their elite pass rush to disrupt the Chiefs and keep Kansas City’s rushing total under 100 yards.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
