Week 9 NFL Touchdown Parlay: Get a 3-Leg, +150 TD Parlay

• Week 9 focuses on high-volume running backs with elite red-zone usage
• This three-leg data-backed NFL parlay is built on positive expected value (+EV)
• Read below for each leg and who needs to cross the goal line

As Week 9 arrives, the NFL TD scorer odds present a landscape replete with value. Navigating the diverse game environments requires precision when hunting for positive-EV scoring angles. Are high-volume stars like Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs worth the steep anytime touchdown odds on this Sunday?

By analyzing red-zone efficiency, goal-line usage, and specific defensive schemes, the data separates the week’s true value bets from trap lines. I have found three players to put into my Week 9 touchdown parlay.

Best Anytime Touchdown Parlay for Week 9

Combining high-probability spots can maximize returns. Here is the most optimal anytime touchdown parlay available at Novig this week, backed strictly by volume and defensive trends.

Claim SBD’s exclusive NOVIG PROMO CODE before locking in this anytime TD parlay.

TD Parlay Leg #1: Christian McCaffrey

Matchup: 49ers vs Raiders | Odds: -285

McCaffrey boasts a 114.3% scoring rate and a six-game streak. He faces a highly vulnerable Las Vegas defense yielding 3.50 scores per contest. With heavy goal-line usage (12 carries), his true probability sits comfortably above his 76.5% implied odds, providing positive expected value.

That scoring floor becomes essentially bulletproof with both Deebo Samuel Sr. and Mike Evans ruled out, vacating over 55% of the team’s air yards and forcing Kyle Shanahan to funnel manufactured red-zone touches directly through his superstar back. McCaffrey commands an overwhelming 91.7% of San Francisco’s rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line and leads the NFL with seven goal-to-go receiving targets.

Against a Raiders front seven that allows an NFL-high 5.3 yards per carry in condensed spaces and has surrendered 11 total touchdowns to running backs, McCaffrey’s multi-touch equity in scoring territory makes this the safest anchor on the board.

TD Parlay Leg #2: Jahmyr Gibbs

Matchup: Lions @ Dolphins | Odds: -380

Gibbs has scored 10 total touchdowns in seven games and leads this group with 43 red-zone looks. Those opportunities give him a strong scoring profile, but -380 implies roughly a 79.2% chance to score, so the price leaves little margin for error. He is the high-volume leg of the parlay, though bettors should weigh that steep cost.

Miami’s defense is an ideal schematic matchup to validate that steep juice, as the Dolphins yield a league-worst 64.3% red-zone touchdown conversion rate and rank 30th in rush defense EPA inside their own 10-yard line. Gibbs commands 58.1% of Detroit’s high-leverage carries and has found paydirt in five consecutive outings behind an offensive line generating 3.4 yards before contact.

With Detroit carrying an imposing 28.5-point implied team total and Amon-Ra St. Brown banged up, Gibbs’ explosive playmaking and guaranteed goal-line touches give him an elite mathematical probability to punch in at least one score.

TD Parlay Leg #3: Javonte Williams

Matchup: Cowboys @ Colts | Odds: -216

Williams has drawn 38 red-zone looks, putting him among the slate’s most-used options near the goal line. His -216 price implies a 68.4% chance to score. That workload makes him a reasonable parlay candidate, but the odds already reflect much of his opportunity advantage.

His path to paydirt is heavily bolstered by an Indianapolis front that bleeds 131.88 rushing yards per game and ranks 28th in defensive stuff rate inside the red zone. Williams handles 81.6% of Dallas’ goal-to-go rushing attempts, turning 15 touches inside the 10 into eight touchdowns this season.

With this matchup carrying a massive 51.5-point game total and wideout George Pickens limited by a hamstring strain, Dallas projects for multiple high-percentage red-zone trips where Williams will serve as the undisputed focal point to finish drives.

If you want to craft your own touchdown parlay today, I have set out some of the most-pertinent touchdown stats and data, below.

Players on a bye week have been excluded from the following tables.

Anytime TD Leaders

TD Rate Per game

Total Red-Zone Looks