NFL Week 9 Picks: Moneyline Best Bets from Model That’s +11.4 Units

After a week off due to technical difficulties, SBD’s straight-up NFL picks are back for Week 9. A subpar 6-8 performance in Week 7 left our prediction model with 62-43-1 record for the season (58.49% win rate) and +11.352 profit margin on uniform one-unit wagers.

The Week 9 betting slate officially opens on November 5 at 8:15 PM ET when the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2 SU) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-4 SU) on Thursday Night Football. The week wraps up on November 9 at 8:15 PM ET as the Buffalo Bills (6-1 SU) clash with the Minnesota Vikings (6-1 SU) in a heavyweight Monday Night Football showdown. Without further ado, here are the model’s Week 9 NFL picks.

NFL Week 9 Picks

The model is favorite-heavy this week, taking the chalk in 11 games and the underdog in just four.

If you haven’t signed up at Novig and/or Kalshi yet, you can use SBD’s exclusive Novig promo code or Kalshi promo code before locking in your Week 9 picks. Though availability of those prediction markets varies by region.

NFL Straight-up Best Bets for Week 9

Bengals (over Falcons)
The Bengals (5-2 SU) present a clear analytical edge at 61¢ on Novig against the Falcons (3-5 SU). Cincinnati brings a dominant +48 point differential and elite red-zone efficiency into this contest. Cincinnati thrives in hostile environments, carrying a 3-1 road record. Atlanta is failing on both sides of the ball, lugging a -18 point differential and a poor 1-3 home mark. At near-coin-flip pricing, backing Cincinnati to win the field position battle represents premium market value.

Cincinnati’s offensive execution on high-leverage downs is the differentiator in Madrid. The Bengals convert an exceptional 52.9% of their third downs and finish 67.9% of red-zone visits with touchdowns, fueling a lethal unit that averages 29.4 points per game. Conversely, Atlanta converts just 33.3% on third downs while turning the ball over frequently (-6 turnover differential), giving Cincinnati massive mathematical advantages across every critical drive metric.

Broncos (over Panthers)
Priced at 58¢ on Kalshi, the Broncos are a massive value play over the Panthers (3-4 SU). Denver enters with a +7 point differential and four consecutive victories. Carolina has dropped two straight contests and displays severe defensive vulnerabilities against the run. Denver’s ground and pound efficiency dwarfs Carolina’s offensive output. Paying 58¢ for the superior road team with a reliable pocket presence provides an easily justifiable investment.

Denver’s defense has powered this four-game surge, holding opponents to just 20.6 points per game while generating a +4 turnover differential. Carolina’s run defense is an ideal target, surrendering 140.7 rushing yards per contest and 27.6 points per game on the season. After dropping back-to-back games while allowing 70 combined points to Tampa Bay and Green Bay, the Panthers lack the interior discipline to withstand Denver’s physical line of scrimmage control.

Packers (over Patriots)
Priced at 41¢ on Kalshi, the Packers (5-3 SU) offer stellar upside against the Patriots (5-3 SU). While New England remains undefeated at home, Green Bay brings a proven 2-2 road split and a +7 point differential into Gillette Stadium. Both squads are riding one-game win streaks, making this matchup a statistical toss-up. Snagging a highly efficient air raid offense at underdog prices yields excellent situational value.

Turnover discipline strongly tilts this matchup in Green Bay’s favor. The Packers protect possessions cleanly, boasting a +4 turnover differential while yielding only 20.5 points per game. New England, despite its 5-3 mark, has been undone by miscues with a glaring -7 turnover differential. Catching 41¢ on a team with an identical record and superior turnover margins creates an attractive statistical mispricing.

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 9

Finding value requires identifying where the market’s perception fails to match underlying production. Based on straight-up records, situational edges, and efficiency metrics, here are the top underdog picks to win outright:

Browns (over Saints)
At 43¢ on Novig, the Browns (5-3 SU) are improperly priced against the Saints (2-5 SU). The market heavily underrates Cleveland’s rigid defensive schemes while overvaluing a New Orleans squad that is winless at home (0-4). With pristine health on both sides, back the statistically superior team to dominate third down conversions catching underdog prices.

Cleveland’s defense holds a significant operational edge over a spiraling Saints roster. New Orleans surrenders 27.7 points per game and allows 389.1 total yards per contest, including 139.4 rushing yards per game. By contrast, Cleveland limits opponents to 21.6 points per game and 214.6 passing yards per game. Backing a five-win Cleveland defense against a New Orleans team carrying a -32 point differential and zero home wins offers undeniable market leverage.

Vikings (over Bills)
The Vikings provide exceptional value at 40¢ on Kalshi. Minnesota holds a flawless 3-0 record at U.S. Bank Stadium. The market is ignoring Minnesota’s massive +47 point differential and elite turnover differential. Fading a Buffalo squad traveling into a hostile environment captures significant positive expected value.

Minnesota’s defense is the stingiest scoring unit on the Week 9 board, allowing an NFL-low 13.3 points per game. That suffocating front paired with a +7 turnover differential gives the Vikings the blueprint to disrupt high-powered attacks. While Buffalo enters at 6-1, the Bills have leaked 25.9 points per game and carry a -2 turnover differential, making Minnesota at home catching 40¢ one of the sharpest value positions available.

Buccaneers (over Bears)
Priced at 30¢ on Novig, the Buccaneers (3-5 SU) are a prime efficiency-based upset target against the Bears (5-2 SU). Tampa Bay holds a massive +27 point differential against a brutal 0.590 strength of schedule. The market is blindly fading Tampa Bay’s record while ignoring their proven road performance.

Under the hood, Tampa Bay’s efficiency numbers outclass its sub-.500 record. The Buccaneers boast an elite rushing attack averaging 168.6 yards per game while yielding just 80.0 rushing yards per game to opponents and allowing 18.9 points per game. With a +27 point differential and a +4 turnover differential, Tampa Bay controls scrimmage metrics at a playoff caliber level, making 30¢ an outrageous discount against Chicago