Avalanche -140 Favorites to Avoid Season Sweep By Stars on January 14

Can the Avs avoid the sweep at the hanfs of the Stars this season? Photo by @Avalanche (Twitter)
  • Stars 3-0-0 over Avalanche this season
  • Both teams have two of the highest winning percentages when scoring first
  • Avalanche struggling at home

The Stars vs Avalanche odds have listed Colorado at -140 in tonight’s matchup versus Dallas, who have won all three previous matchups this season and are ahead of Colorado by one point in the Central Division standings. Colorado is off to a slow start in 2020, having gone 2-2-1 this month, whereas the Stars won four of their first five games in January. This is the fourth and final time both teams will play each other this season.

Avalanche vs Stars Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at Bovada
Stars +1 1/2 (-210) +175 U 5.5 (-110)
Avalanche -1 1/2 (+175) -140 O 5.5 (+100)

Odds taken Jan. 13

Stars Looking to Sweep

The Dallas Stars have won all three matches against the Avalanche this season, winning two in regulation and one in a shootout. Two of the first three contests were played in Dallas, while the only game in Colorado resulted in a 2-1 Stars regulation win. Dallas has outscored Colorado 8-4 this year, despite the Avalanche having the superior possession numbers in Corsi-For (54.71), Fenwick (53.09) and on-net shot counts (50.83).

This is part of a larger unfavorable trend the Avalanche have endured this season against teams that don’t give up many goals. Dallas has surrendered the fewest goals in the league (107) and despite Colorado surrendering the 10th-fewest goals (134), they’re 6-7-3 against the top-nine teams that surrendered the fewest goals in the league this season.

Both Teams Have High Winning Percentages When Scoring First

Among NHL teams that win when scoring the game’s first goal, the Avalanche and Stars are respectively tied for second and third. Despite never scoring first against Dallas, the Avalanche have scored the game’s first goal 28 times this season (second-most among NHL teams), winning 19 of those contests. Dallas has struck first 23 times this season, winning 18 of those contests.

Both teams have also posted relatively solid numbers when leading after the first and second periods. When leading after the first period, Dallas has the third-highest win percentage in the NHL (.867), whereas the Avalanche have the 11th-highest (.778). When leading after two periods, Dallas is tied for 13th (.857), while Colorado is ranked 21st (.833). Whoever scores first tonight has a good chance at winning the game.

Avalanche Slumping at Home

Over their last five contests at the Pepsi Center, the Avalanche have won just once, going 1-3-1 and are 3-4-2 at home since December. Before their recent struggles on home ice, the Avalanche were 10-4-2 at home (are currently 11-7-3). Although they’ve been favorites in 19 of their 21 home games this season, Colorado has covered the spread just nine times and hit the money line in 10 of those games.

Despite slumping at home, six of those nine contests saw a total of at least seven or more goals scored between both teams, including their last five consecutive contests at the Pepsi Center. Colorado has gone 1-3-2 in those six games where a minimum of seven total goals were scored.

Best Bets

This game features two of the league’s top teams in the Western Conference who are relying on team elements that completely offset each other. Dallas has surrendered the fewest goals in the league, while Colorado has relied on their dynamic high-scoring offense to win.

Between Dallas’ superiority over Colorado this season, the former riding a lot of momentum going into tonight’s contest while the latter has been slumping, along with the Avalanche’s struggles at home in recent weeks, the underdog is the way to go at +175 odds. It might also be smart to take the Under (-110) and the Avalanche to score first.

Picks: Dallas Stars (+175), Under 5.5 (-110), Avalanche score first (-145)

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