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Washington Capitals vs Columbus Blue Jackets (Game 6): Preview & Prediction

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NHL Hockey

Updated Apr 23, 2018 · 11:41 AM PDT

Capitals center Nicklas Backstrom during pregame warmup.
Capitals center Nicklas Backstrom was the OT hero in Game 5 and is now tied for the team lead with eight points in the playoffs. Photo by Michael Miller (wikipedia) [CC License].

Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks?

The perennially underperforming Washington Capitals are completely rewriting their franchise’s usual script in the 2018 playoffs, surging back from a 2-0 series deficit — which saw them drop the first two games at home — to take a 3-2 lead over the Columbus Blue Jackets, most recently edging Columbus 3-2 in OT in Game 5 on Sunday.

The Caps can put the best-of-seven series to rest tonight in Game 6 when they visit the Jackets at Nationwide Arena (7:30 PM ET). Before putting any money down on the game, get the opening odds, important stats and trends, significant injury news, and a final score prediction, below.

Opening Odds

MONEYLINE PUCKLINE O/U GOALS
CAPITALS (+100) CAPITALS +1.5 (-305) OVER 5.5 (-109)
BLUE JACKETS (-110) BLUE JACKETS -1.5 (+255) UNDER 5.5 (-101)

Game 5 saw a number of series firsts. For the first time in five games, the Blue Jackets opened the scoring, getting a shorthanded marker from Matt Calvert part way through the first. They also outshot Washington for the first time in the series, holding a significant 42-29 advantage by the end of OT, including a 16-1 discrepancy in the third.

YouTube video

What they did not get, unlike in Games 1 and 2, was timely saves from Sergei Bobrovsky. The Capitals would go onto hold 2-1 and 3-2 leads on some less than pretty goals (see in particular the 0:32 mark of the video above) before Bobrovsky was beaten on an admittedly very nice deflection by Nick Backstrom in overtime (see 4:30).

After riding the pine in Game 1 and to start Game 2, Braden Holtby was tremendous in net for the Caps, stopping 39 of 42 shots to earn his third straight win since re-taking the starting role.

Key Injuries & Absences

CAPITALS BLUE JACKETS
Andre Burakovsky: Out (UBI) Lukas Sedlak: Out (concussion)
TJ Oshie: In (unspecifed) Alex Wennberg: Probable (UBI)

Burakovsky is out for the remainder of the series and is slated to have minor surgery on his upper-body injury. Oshie missed the morning skate but will be in the lineup tonight.

Wennberg made his return in Game 5, playing 18:00 minutes and registering an assist on Oliver Bjorkstrand’s game-tying goal in the third period. If he is unable to dress tonight, Sonny Milano should slot into the lineup, as he did in Game 4. But expect the Swedish center to take his usual spot between Thomas Vanek and Boone Jenner on CBJ’s second line.

Regular Season Team Stats

CAPITALS STATISTIC BLUE JACKETS
49-26-7 (17-20-4 Away) REGULAR-SEASON RECORD 45-30-7 (22-13-6 Home)
 +20 (T 11th) GOAL DIFFERENCE (LEAGUE RANK) +12 (14th)
3.15 GPG (T 9th) GF/GAME 2.95 GPG (16th)
2.91 GAA (15th) GA/GAME 2.81 GAA (10th)
 47.35% (28th) FENWICK % 52.21% (7th)
 22.5% (5th)  POWER PLAY % 17.2% (25th)
 80.3% (15th)  PENALTY KILL % 76.2% (26th)
 .909% (T 13th) TEAM SV% .912% (T 9th)

Betting Results & Trends*

CAPITALS  TREND BLUE JACKETS
Won 3 WIN/LOSS STREAK Lost 3
6-4 LAST 10 4-6
41-46 PUCKLINE RECORD 38-49
49-36-2 OVER/UNDER SPLIT 44-43-0
Over 1 OVER/UNDER STREAK Over 1

*All statistics date back to regular season.

Score Prediction

CAPITALS 3
BLUE JACKETS  2

By and large, Washington has been the better team throughout the series, and they were very unlucky to find themselves in an early 2-0 hole.

Columbus made a nice push in Game 5, especially in the third period, but that was the first extended stretch in which they looked like the more dangerous team. For the most part, they have been more opportunistic than dominant.

[The third period of Game 5] was the first extended stretch in which [the Blue Jackets] looked like the more dangerous team.

Washington played it’s best game of the series — perhaps best game of the year — on the road in Game 4, cruising from start to finish during a 4-1 win. With Holtby (.936 SV%, 1.66 GAA in the playoffs) back between the pipes and their big-three clicking (Backstrom: 8 pts; Evgeny Kuznetsov: 7 pts; Alex Ovechkin: 6 pts), the Caps are better value at +100, especially with Bobrovsky (.912 SV%, 2.85 GAA in the playoffs) starting to show chinks in his mentally unstable armor.

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