Upcoming Match-ups

Flames vs Stars Game 1 Odds & Pick – Aug 11

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NHL Hockey

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 7:54 AM PDT

Calgary Flames left wing Matthew Tkachuk (19) plays against the Nashville Predators during the second period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Jan. 18, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
  • The Calgary Flames and Dallas Stars will face-off in the first round of the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs
  • Dallas went 1-2-0 in the Western Conference round robin; Calgary beat Winnipeg in four games.
  • Game 1 goes Tuesday at 5:40 pm ET; Bryan Thiel breaks down the match-up and makes his pick

After the Dallas Stars stumbled through the Western Conference round robin and the Flames sent the Jets packing, they’re set to face each other in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Following a different look over the first two weeks of action, things are back to normal: a seven-game series to see who moves on.

The puck drops for Game 1 on Tuesday at 5:40pm.

Flames vs Stars: Game 1 Odds

Team Moneyline Puckline Over/Under at DraftKings
Calgary Flames -105 +1.5 (-286) Over 5 (-139)
Dallas Stars -110 -1.5 (+115) Under 5 (+115)

Odds as of Aug. 10. 

The regular season was fairly tight between these two teams, and it’s reflected in the playoff odds. The Flames and Stars were separated by three points in the regular season, and Dallas had one more regular season win.

The odds for Flames/Stars is closer than any other in the first round. While the Calgary/Dallas series price opened with the Stars favored, many sportsbooks have made Flames vs Stars odds a pick’em in Game 1.

Stars Searching for Healthy Bodies Against Flames

There is one lingering concern for the Stars as things kick off, and that’s health.

Tyler Seguin has been battling an undisclosed injury since training camp. He played against Vegas and Colorado but wasn’t terribly effective. He was a minus-four with no points in two games. Seguin didn’t play in the Stars’ 2-1 OT win against the Blues.

The other key injury may be a bit more palatable.

Ben Bishop, like Seguin, didn’t play against the Blues. Rick Bowness says both are day-to-day, but Anton Khudobin may be able to hold the fort in Bishop’s absence.

Ben Bishop, Anton Khudobin 2019/20

Bishop
VS
Khudobin
43 Games Started 26
21-16-4 Record 16-8-4
2.50 Goals-Against Average 2.22
.920 Save Percentage .930
.628 Quality Start Percentage .731
13.29 GSAA 17.75

While Khudobin doesn’t have Bishop’s pedigree, he is among the better back-ups in the league.

The Dallas Morning News seems to be more concerned about Bishop’s status than Seguin’s. An available Bishop is a better long-term prospect for the series, but Khudobin should perform well in Game 1.

Calgary Hoping Offensive Balance Remains

The biggest reason the Flames were able to get past the Jets in the first round, was their balanced offense. Seven Calgary forwards finished with three or more points, victimizing a short-handed Jets team.

Calgary’s Offensive Production

Player Goals Assists PPP +/-
Sean Monahan 2 4 3 +4
Milan Lucic 1 3 2 +1
Andrew Mangiapane 1 3 1 +3
Mikael Backlund 2 1 1 +2
Elias Lindholm 2 1 2 +2
Johnny Gaudreau 2 1 2 +2
Sam Bennett 2 1 0 +3

The bonus in all of this was the production from Milan Lucic. Lucic’s regular season saw him perform at a 0.29 point-per-game pace. That helped off-set Johnny Gaudreau getting back up to speed, as Gaudreau had a rough start to camp.

One issue however, may be the fact that it’ll be four days between games for the Flames. A needed rest, yes, but is that a tough layoff after an interrupted season?

Stars, Jets Defensive Comparison

Stars
VS
Jets
116.08 (4) xGA 151.48 (31)
555 (7) High-Danger Chances Against 756 (31)
0.999 (18) PDO 1.005 (12)
49.48% (18) Corsi % 48.55% (21)
49.4% (19) Fenwick % 47.59% (27)

(NHL Rank)

While they are similar in some categories, there is no doubt the Stars have a better defense than the Jets.

Esa Lindell, John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen are a formidable trio at the depth chart. They present a far greater challenge to Calgary’s potent forward group.

Flames, Stars Should Be Tight-Checking in Game 1

These two played three times in the regular season. One game was decided by one goal, while another featured a late empty-netter.

If there’s no Tyler Seguin, we expect a similar outcome. The Flames will be trying to get their legs under them once again, and the Stars will pull out a one-goal win in Game 1.

The Pick: Dallas Stars (-110), Under 5 (+115)

Author Image