Hart Trophy Odds Show Extremely Close Race Between Draisaitl, McDavid, MacKinnon, Pastrnak

Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon
Can 24-year-old superstar Nathan MacKinnon capture his first Hart Trophy in 2020? Photo by @Avalanche (twitter).
  • Four players are neck-and-neck in the latest 2020 Hart Trophy odds
  • Oiler teammates Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are co-favorites at +200
  • Will they be victims of vote splitting and, if so, which player is in the best position to take advantage?

The latest 2020 Hart Trophy odds make one thing clear: this year’s competition is a four-horse race between Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Boston’s David Pastrnak, and Edmonton teammates Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

All four are between +200 and +400, with the fifth-favorite, Artemi Panarin of the Rangers, back at +800.

2020 Hart Trophy Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Connor McDavid (Oilers) +200
Leon Draisaitl (Oilers) +200
Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche) +300
David Pastrnak (Bruins) +400
Artemi Panarin (Rangers) +800
Brad Marchand (Bruins) +1000
John Carlson (Capitals) +2500
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) +3300

Odds taken March 2nd.

McDavid and Draisaitl are co-favorites at +200 despite playing on the same team. I’m fading both of them and riding with 2018 runner-up MacKinnon and here’s why.

Clear Path for MacKinnon to Capture Hart Trophy

MacKinnon finished 2018 with 1,194 votes, second only to Taylor Hall of the Devils, who compiled 1,264 votes. This season, MacKinnon already has 85 points and is on pace for 109. More impressive than the total number, however, is his lead over the rest of his Avalanche teammates. Rookie Cale Makar is second on the team in scoring, 38 points behind MacKinnon. That’s eerily reminiscent of Hall’s Hart campaign two years ago, when his 93 points were 41 more than any other Devil.

MacKinnon leads the Avalanche in goals, assists, points, power-play goals, power-play assists, and power-play points. Maybe most importantly, he’s also leading Colorado to wins.

Despite a long-term injury to fellow superstar Mikko Rantanen, the Avalanche are sitting second in the Central division, only three points back of the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues with two games in hand.

If Colorado manages to win the division and MacKinnon keeps this pace, it would be hard not to consider him the most valuable player to his team, which is the definition of the Hart.

Will McDavid & Draisaitl Split Votes?

There’s little denying the greatness of either McDavid or Draisaitl – both have been incredible this season. Draisaitl is tops in the league with 102 points, while McDavid sits fourth with 89. Had McDavid not missed six games due to injury, he’d likely be hot on Draisaitl’s tail.

There are two major issues when it comes to their MVP chances, though.

First, how do you decide which of the two has truly been the most valuable? You can make a case for each player, which could easily result in splitting votes.

The second issue is the Oilers playoff standing. They currently sit second in the Pacific Division but are only four points up on ninth-place. Should Edmonton find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time, it would almost certainly send voters back to the drawing board looking for a better candidate more worthy of their vote.

Bet MacKinnon To Win 1st Hart Trophy in Colorado Since 2003

The +300 odds don’t provide a ton of value, but I definitely think MacKinnon is the favorite to win the award. David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand have a similar problem to the pair of Oilers in that they will split some votes, leaving MacKinnon to collect the hardware when all is said and done.

While no member of the Avs has won the Hart since Peter Forsberg in 2003, the franchise’s 24-year-old superstar should put an end to that drought this season.

Hart Trophy Pick: Nathan MacKinnon (+300)

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