Leafs vs Senators Game 6 Prediction, Odds & Starting Goalies

• The Ottawa Senators are -118 home favorites to topple the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 6 Thursday
• After going down 3-0 in the series, the Sens have won the last two to make this battle very interesting
• Read my Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 6 prediction with odds, prediction and starting goalies

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The Maple Leafs can never make things easy on themselves in the postseason, but nevertheless, they are incredibly entertaining. After taking a 3-0 series stranglehold on the Senators, they’ve lost the last two to make their fans terrified of yet another playoff collapse. In the Stanley Cup odds, the Leafs’ best price can be found at +975 on Caesars Sportsbook, while the Sens are +8000 on BetMGM.

Ottawa hosts their provincial rivals in the sixth installment of the ‘Battle of Ontario’ at Canadian Tire Centre. The Game 6 odds have the home side as slight -118 moneyline favorites. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET, with coverage on TBS/Max in the United States and CBC, along with Sportsnet and CBC in Canada.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 6 Prediction

• Pick: Under 5.5 goals (-120 at Sports Interaction)

The Leafs were flying high in the first three duels, winning all three, with a power play operating at a 5-for-9 clip. That’s run dry, however, as they’ve gone 0-for-7 in the last two tilts, plus they’ve surrendered a shorthanded goal in each of those games.

In the regular season, Toronto lost three straight just four times, and didn’t have a four-game skid at all. Ottawa was very streaky all campaign, and beat their rivals in all three matchups. The concern in Leafs Nation is the potential for yet another playoff failure, as they’re a ghastly 1-13 in potential series elimination games since 2018. In those instances, they have just 23 goals, allowed 48, and 1-for-31 on the man advantage. Suffice to say, if they lose yet again, it will be full-blown panic in T.O.

The Maple Leafs core being 1-13 in elimination games is ridiculous. #LeafsForever

— Andrew Raycroft (@AndrewRaycroft) April 30, 2025

Between the pipes, the Leafs are expected to continue to run with Anthony Stolarz, who has let six pucks go by him on 38 shots (.842 save %) the last two battles after just six on 81 shots (.926 save %) in the first three contests. After a rough Game 1, where he allowed six goals on 24 attempts, Senators netminder Linus Ullmark has given up nine markers in the last four games on 104 shots for a tidy .913 save %. A 29-save shutout aided him in Game 5, his first career playoff blanking.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Series Head-to-Head Playoff Stats

It’s hard to go in with a boatload of confidence given the Leafs ‘Core 4’ struggles to close out a playoff series in recent years. Add to that, Ottawa has been playing much better and shored up the penalty kill. Though Toronto could certainly win, I’m shying away from backing them, given their history.

However, in their eight total meetings this season, under six goals have been scored five times. That dovetails nicely with six of the last nine instances Toronto could’ve closed out an opponent, they’ve found it difficult to score, resulting in under six total goals occurring. Therefore, I’m selecting under 5.5 goals in this one at -120.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 6 Odds

In the Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 6 odds, Ottawa is a slight -118 moneyline favorite, giving them a 54.13% implied win probability to extend this to a 7th and deciding game. Only ten teams in NHL history have forced a seventh and deciding affair after being down 3-0, and only four have completed the series comeback (1942 Maple Leafs, 1975 Islanders, 2010 Flyers, 2014 Kings).

A $118 bet would profit $100 if Ottawa is victorious. Conversely, a $102 wager on -102 Maple Leafs would return $100. Our SBD formula has Toronto pulling the upset 3.38-3.22, meaning Toronto would cover the spread, and the over 5.5 goal total would hit.

Odds as of April 30, 2025, at Sports Interaction. Check out the top NHL betting apps for Leafs vs Senators.

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