Metro Division Odds: Should Penguins Be Favored Over Capitals, Flyers?
- Online betting sites have posted odds to win each NHL division.
- Pittsburgh is the early favorite in the Metro even though Stanley Cup champion Washington has won it three years running.
- The Devils are lumped in with the Rangers and Islanders as long-shots, even though New Jersey is coming off a 97-point season.
Early odds to win each NHL division in the upcoming 2018-19 season have been posted. The Metropolitan is expected to be a two-horse race between Washington (+260) and Pittsburgh (+180), who have finished 1-2 for three straight years.
The Flyers and Blue Jackets, both coming off playoff appearances, are being given a fighting chance at +600, while the rest of the Metro crop is at +1000 or longer.
Below, find the full odds, each team’s 2018-19 outlook, and the best value bet to win the Metro title.
2018 Metropolitan Division Odds
| Metro Division | Odds | 2017-18 PTS | O/U 2018-19 PTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +180 | 100 | 102.5 |
| Washington Capitals | +260 | 105 | 97.5 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +600 | 97 | 97.5 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +600 | 98 | 97.5 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +1000 | 83 | 85.5 |
| New Jersey Devils | +1400 | 97 | 91.5 |
| New York Rangers | +1600 | 77 | 75.5 |
| New York Islanders | +1800 | 80 | OFF |
Pittsburgh Penguins
This offseason was expected to bring significant change for the Penguins after they fell to the Caps in the second round of the 2018 playoffs. Instead, the team is basically running it back with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel leading the charge.
All of their top-nine scorers are back and Jack Johnson adds some necessary depth on the back end. A better season from Matt Murray (2.92 GAA, .907 SV%) could see this stacked roster challenge for the Presidents Trophy, not just the Metro crown. They hit the 100-point mark last season despite the goaltending issues and a pedestrian performance from Sidney Crosby (29 G, 89 P), at least by his lofty standards.
| Penguins’ Key 2018 Additions | Penguins’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Matt Cullen (C) | Matt Hunwick (D) |
| Derek Grant (LW) | Josh Jooris (C) |
| Jack Johnson (D) | Tom Kuhnhackl (RW) |
| Jimmy Hayes (RW) | Carter Rowney (C) |
| Conor Sheary (C) | |
| Jarred Tinordi (D) |
Washington Capitals
Some may question why the Capitals trail Pittsburgh at this stage. After all, they’ve won three straight Metro crowns and return basically the same team that also won the 2018 Stanley Cup. But it’s pretty simple when you break it down.
First, they lose a couple cogs from last year’s team, including goalie Philipp Grubauer, who was key to their regular-season success, if not their playoff run.
They are also apt to suffer a Stanley Cup hangover, not because of a lack of motivation, but because of exhaustion from playing into mid-June. Alex Ovechkin (49 G, 87 P), Nicklas Backstrom (21 G, 71 P), and TJ Oshie (18 G, 47 P) are all 30-plus. Don’t be surprised if the Caps start slowly.
Lastly, head coach Barry Trotz is now with the Islanders and former assistant Todd Reirden gets his first try as an NHL boss. Maybe that won’t matter, or maybe the defense will regress to its pre-Trotz style.
| Capitals’ Key 2018 Additions | Capitals’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Nic Dowd (C) | Jay Beagle (RW) |
| Philipp Grubauer (G) | |
| Jakub Jerabek (D) |
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets would have better odds if there wasn’t a significant possibility that leading scorer Artemi Panarin gets traded this season. The 26-year-old Russian means everything to the Columbus offense, posting team-highs in goals (27), assists (55), and plus-minus (+23). The impending free-agent has refused to re-sign, so the Jackets can either move him or lose him for nothing in the offseason.
Without Panarin, Columbus won’t have the top-line talent to keep up with Pittsburgh and Washington over an 82-game regular season. Pierre-Luc Dubois (20 G, 48 P), Cam Atkinson (24 G, 46 P), and Nick Foligno (15 G, 33 P) will headline a team that is difficult to play against, but not one that approaches 50 wins, even with Sergei Bobrovsky (2.42 GAA, .921 SV%) likely to be in the Vezina conversation again.
| Blue Jackets’ Key 2018 Additions | Blue Jackets’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Adam Clendening (D) | Matt Calvert (LW) |
| Anthony Duclair (LW) | Ian Cole (D) |
| Riley Nash (C) | Jack Johnson (D) |
| Mark Letestu (C) | |
| Thomas Vanek (LW) |
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers made a ten-point jump in the standings last year to the surprise of many. Thought to be on the decline, Claude Giroux had his best season ever at age 30 (34 G, 102 P), while Sean Couturier (31 G, 76 P, +34) developed into one of the top two-way centers in the NHL.
Continued progress from young defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere (13 G, 65 P, +10, 21:27 TOI) and Ivan Provorov (17G, 41 P, +17, 24:09 TOI) could see the team’s goals-against improve from a mediocre 243 GA. The real key on that front, though, is better goaltending from either Brian Elliott (2.66 GAA, .909 SV%) or Michael Neuvirth (2.60 GAA, .915 SV%). If one or the other grabs the starting job by the throat with solid early-season play, Philly has the firepower to win the Metro.
| Flyers’ Key 2018 Additions | Flyers’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Christian Folin (D) | Valtteri Filppula (C) |
| James Van Riemsdyk (LW) | Brandon Manning (D) |
| Petr Mrazek (G) | |
| Matt Read (RW) |
Carolina Hurricanes
This season is one of transition for the Hurricanes, who have been a sexy preseason pick the last couple years thanks to strong advanced statistics that portend improvement.
Gone are former franchise savior Jeff Skinner along with two former fifth-overall picks, Noah Hanifin (2015) and Elias Lindholm (2013). Arriving from Calgary are defensemen Dougie Hamilton and winger Michael Ferland.
The advanced metrics certainly suggest that Carolina won the trade with the Flames, but outshooting opponents has never been this Carolina team’s problem. Converting on scoring chances is what has held them back, averaging just 2.78 GPG last year (23rd overall). Ferland is a fine addition, but not really a Skinner-replacement. Skinner, though a winger, was Carolina’s version of a play-making, play-driving center. Trotting out Jordan Staal and Victor Rask as your top-two down the middle is not going to lead to goals.
| Hurricanes’ Key 2018 Additions | Hurricanes’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Calvin de Haan (D) | Noah Hanifin (D) |
| Michael Ferland (LW) | Elias Lindholm (C) |
| Dougie Hamilton (D) | Joakim Nordstrom (LW) |
| Petr Mrazek (G) | Derek Ryan (C) |
| Jeff Skinner (LW) | |
| Lee Stempniak (RW) | |
| Cam Ward (G) |
New Jersey Devils
The Devils overachieved last season thanks to a Hart Trophy campaign from Taylor Hall (39 G, 93 P) and surprisingly decent goaltending from backup Keith Kinkaid (2.77 GAA, .91 SV%), who staunched the flow of goals surrendered by Cory Schneider early in the year.
The Devils’ true colors showed in the playoffs when they were run out of the rink in the first round by the Lightning. They were outscored 18-12 while losing the series 4-1 and, much like the regular season, scoring depth was an issue: Hall had six points in the playoffs and no other forward had more than three.
The Hurricanes have certainly proven that Corsi is not a perfect predictor of progression/regression, but expect New Jersey and its 48.51% Corsi to take a step back in 2018-19. Hall, in particular, is a strong candidate for regression. The injury-prone winger had never scored 30 goals or topped 80 points before last year.
| Devils’ Key 2018 Additions | Devils’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Eric Gryba (D) | Brian Gibbons (RW) |
| Eric Tangradi (RW) | Michael Grabner (RW) |
| Jimmy Hayes (RW) | |
| Eddie Lack (G) | |
| Patrick Maroon (LW) | |
| John Moore (D) | |
| Drew Stafford (RW) |
New York Rangers
The additions/departures table below is technically accurate, but doesn’t tell the whole story regarding how much turnover this Rangers team will see.
At last year’s trade deadline, New York acquired Vladislav Namestnikov, Ryan Spooner, and Matt Beleskey (and multiple draft picks) while dealing Rick Nash, Ryan McDonough and JT Miller. The 2018-19 Rangers will bear almost no resemblance to the team that started last season with moderate expectations.
This is a rebuilding year and, Henrik Lundqvist’s performance aside, New York has no expectations of challenging for the Metro title.
| Rangers’ Key 2018 Additions | Rangers’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Fredrik Claesson (D) | Paul Carey (C) |
| Dustin Tokarski (G) | Ondrej Pavelec (G) |
New York Islanders
Sadistic Ranger fans can rejoice knowing their in-city rivals had arguably the most disappointing offseason in the entire league. With franchise cornerstone John Tavares signing in Toronto and Calvin de Haan moving to Carolina, the Islanders are headed for the Metro basement.
Calder-winner Mathew Barzal (22 G, 85 P) will have a hard time duplicating his rookie production without Tavares attracting the attention of top D pairings. Aside from hiring defensive genius Barry Trotz, the team did almost nothing to address its NHL-worst 296 goals against. Replacing Jaro Halak with Robin Lehner between the pipes is a lateral.
| Islanders’ Key 2018 Additions | Islanders’ Key 2018 Departures |
|---|---|
| Valtteri Filppula (C) | Calvin de Haan (D) |
| Leo Komarov (C) | Jaroslav Halak (G) |
| Tom Kuhnhackl (RW) | Alan Quine (C) |
| Robin Lehner (G) | Dennis Seidenberg (D) |
| John Tavares (C) |
Which team is the best value bet to win the Metro?
The potential for a sluggish start from Washington plus Pittsburgh’s lingering questions between the pipes deflate the value on the Caps and Pens at short odds.
Should they be the favorites? Yes. Should they be this far ahead of the pack? No.
The Flyers have the same goalie issues as the Penguins, but may get further improvement from players like Sean Couturier and Ivan Provorov. This is a team on the rise and, at +600, offer solid value in a year that could see a changing of the guard in the Metropolitan.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
