Odds to Win NHL Draft Lottery – Red Wings Favored

• The 2020 NHL Draft Lottery will take place on Friday, June 26th at 8:00 pm EST
• The Detroit Red Wings finished with the fewest points in the NHL and have an 18.5% chance at the top pick
• The Ottawa Senators hold their pick and the San Jose Sharks pick, which means together, they have a 25% chance of winning the pick, so are they the best bet?

With the NHL slowly moving its way towards a return, the 2020 NHL Entry Draft will be held this coming Friday. The Detroit Red Wings finished the 2019-20 regular season with the lowest point total in the NHL, so they’ll have the best shot to win the first pick overall. Are they a good bet to do so?

2020 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

Odds taken June 23

LaFreniere Expected to Be the Top Pick

If you’re wondering who the teams are fighting for, it is Canadian stud Alexis LaFreniere, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. The 18-year-old captained Rimouski-Oceanic of the QMJHL and posted 100+ point seasons over the last two years. He had 112 points in this year’s 52-game campaign.

What’s the Ping Pong Ball Percentage?

If you’re planning to bet on this prop, the key is to understand the ping pong ball percentage. How it works is that the teams involved will have a percentage of ping pong balls in the lottery and then one lucky team will be picked at random. However, the percentages factor.

The NHL Draft Lottery is 8:00 Friday. It will be strange not being there.

— Paul Hamilton (@pham1717) June 22, 2020

The Red Wings, who had the fewest points in the NHL, will have an 18.5% chance of winning, which is five percent better than second-place Ottawa. However, at a closer look, Ottawa not only holds their pick but also the San Jose Sharks, which they got in the Erik Karlsson trade.

The Sens have a 13.5% chance of winning with their own pick but then they also have an 11.5% chance of winning with the Sharks pick. Cumulatively, that’s a 25% chance. However, don’t be fooled by that because the Sharks are still on the board. They technically can win the draft lottery, as the odds suggest, and then would trade the pick to Ottawa.

What’s the Best Bet?

There’s no question that the Red Wings need a win here. They are fresh off a 17-41-5 campaign while posting a pathetic -122 goal differential. Winning is not something that’s happened for them much this year. At the same time, we have to do a little math to see if they’re the best bet with this prop.

Ninety-three players and seven honourable mentions – headlined by Rimouski’s Alexis Lafreniere – make up Bob McKenzie’s Final Player Ranking ahead of the 2020 #NHLDraft…

The Full List: https://t.co/37JTW1prkt#TSNHockey #DraftCentre pic.twitter.com/reVxdrO6Ws

— TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) June 22, 2020

At +250, their implied probability is 28.6% but we know that’s not the case as they only have an 18.5% chance of winning. However, when you start going down the board, the same appears to be the case for every team. The Sens are at +350, which is an implied probability of 22.2% but their odds are at 13.5%.

Looking further, the Sharks have a 20% implied probability but their real chances are 11.5%. That being the case, your best bet is really just the smallest gap between the two but overall, you’re best to pass. There doesn’t appear to be any value with this with any team.