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San Jose Sharks’ 2019-20 Point Total (95.5) Has Jumped Two Full Points in the Offseason

San Jose players celebrating a goal.
Despite inconsistent goaltending in 2018/19 and losing Joe Pavelski, can the San Jose Sharks top 95 points once again?Photo from @PR_NHL (Twitter)
  • The San Jose Sharks over/under for points this season is 95.5
  • San Jose has hit the over four-straight seasons
  • Can the Sharks do it again in 2019/20?

The San Jose Sharks have evolved into one of the most consistent teams in the NHL. While that success hasn’t resulted in a Stanley Cup, the Sharks are always among the contenders. Despite not winning a division title since 2010-11, San Jose has made the playoffs in seven of eight seasons.

In six of those years, they finished with 96 or more points. And one of the years they missed out was shortened by a lockout.

So are the Sharks a lock to cross the 95 point threshold again? Some sharps certainly think so, as San Jose’s regular-season point total has been bet up from 93.5 to 95.5 during the offseason.

2019-20 Over/Under Point Totals: Pacific Division

Team 2018/19 Point Total O/U at BetOnline 4-Year Average
Calgary Flames 107 96.5 (-110o/-110u) 90.5
San Jose Sharks 101 95.5 (-110o/-110u) 99.5
Vegas Golden Knights 93 100.5 (-110o/-110u) 101.0
Arizona Coyotes 86 87.5 (-125o/+105u) 76.0
Vancouver Canucks 81 85.5 (-125o/+105u) 74.5
Anaheim Ducks 80 79.5 (-110o/-110u) 97.3
Edmonton Oilers 79 85.5 (-110o/-110u) 82.5
Los Angeles Kings 71 73.5 (-110o/-110u) 89.2

*Odds taken 09/04/2019

Overall, there are a lot of questions still to be answered in the Pacific Division.

The Flames face questions in net again. Is David Rittich ready to carry a team or will they have to hope they get something out of Cam Talbot? Is the Coyotes’ late-season push for real? Can the Golden Knights triplicate the success of their first two seasons?

The Sharks have questions of their own, and they start in net.

Martin Jones Needs to Re-Discover His Form

Last year was Martin Jones’ worst as a San Jose Shark.

For the first time in his career he had a GAA over 2.60 and a save percentage under .905. Here’s his 2018/19 stacked up against his averages with the Sharks.

Martin Jones: 2018-19 vs 2015-18

Missing Team
VS
‘3

36 Wins 34
.896 SV% 0.915
2.94 GAA 2.41
-22.87 Goals Saved Above Average 2.01
27 Quality Starts 37

While slightly obscure, Goals Saved Above Average and Quality Starts help to underscore the point: Jones was not up to his usual standard.

Jones won’t turn 30 until halfway through 2019-20, so age isn’t the reason for his decline. And even though late struggles in 2017-18 carried over to last year, he didn’t suddenly lose it.

Jones may not be as good as his first three years with the Sharks, but don’t expect him to be as bad as last year.

How Do Sharks Replace Joe Pavelski?

The biggest loss the Sharks suffered in the off-season was watching captain Joe Pavelski walk. San Jose not only lost a leader, but also their leading goal scorer.

So how do the Sharks replace Pavelski’s 38 goals?

Comparing San Jose Sharks Goal Scorers

Player 2018-19 Goals 2017-18 Goals 2016-17 Goals 2015-16 Goals
Joe Pavelski 38 22 29 38
Tomas Hertl 35 22 10 21
Timo Meier 30 21 3 N/A
Marcus Sorensen 17 5 1 N/A
Kevin Labanc 17 11 8 N/A

The four goal scorers following Pavelski on this list have one of two things going for them. They’re either under 26 years old, or have less than three years of NHL experience.

That’s important because San Jose will be looking for improvement, and those are the places you get it. Meier and Labanc especially will be expected to pick up the slack.

The pressure will be on Hertl too, as people will want to know if he can score 30 consistently.

Will Marleau, Thornton Return to San Jose Sharks?

If San Jose is looking for reinforcements, they’re staring them right in the face.

Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are just sitting there in free agency.

But since San Jose hasn’t signed either, it could say a lot about the faith they have in their system.

If both veterans continue to sit and wait, look for big things from Dylan Gambrell and Alex True.

Defense Will Drive Sharks’ Record

The questions at forward mean the Sharks will be driven by Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. And ultimately that’s a fine problem to have.

You know what you’re getting from Burns. And if Karlsson is healthy? His second season in San Jose will be much better.

San Jose will figure it out at forward. So long as the wheels don’t fall off Martin Jones, they’ll be a top-two team in the division.

The Pick: Over 95.5 (-110)

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